Cardano (ADA) bounced modestly after losing nearly 30% of its valuation in the previous week, its worst seven-day performance since May 2021, when the Terra collapse sparked a cryotocurrency market crash.
Nonetheless, ADA looks ready to undergo a sharp recovery in the coming months, based on technical analysis.
ADA price up 30% from six-month lows
On June 12, ADA price rose 2.25% to $0.28, up around 27% from the six-month low of $0.22 seen last week. The rise appeared alongside gains elsewhere in the crypto market, hinting at investors buying the dip.
ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
The reasons behind Cardano's bad week include the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deeming it an unregistered security in the lawsuits filed against crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase.
On June 9, U.S.-based investment service Robinhood, which allows users to trade cryptocurrencies, announced it would delist ADA from its platform. This preceded a maximum 30% drop in ADA price on the day.
ADA's market dominance daily chart. Source: TradingView
Cardano was also part of the services offered by crypto exchange Crypto.com to its U.S.-based institutional clients. On June 9, the company terminated those services, thus restricting ADA to its potential mainstream investors base in the U.S.
Cardano most oversold since March 2020
Cardano's technicals, however, hint at a possible rebound ahead. For instance, the ongoing token recovery comes a day after its daily relative strength (RSI) dropped to 20, the most oversold since March 2020.
ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Oversold RSI readings typically precede a consolidating or recovering price action.
For instance, the ADA price had jumped 900% four months after March 2020's oversold readings. It also happened due to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy, which boosted upside sentiments across the riskier markets.
However, the Fed is poised to continue hiking interest rates as inflation persists, which should remove excessive cash from the market. In addition, the SEC's crypto crackdown has created unfavorable market conditions in the United States for cryptocurrency tokens such as ADA.
Therefore, an oversold rebound, if it comes, could be weaker than what the market witnessed after March 2020.
On the three-day chart, ADA appears rangebound inside the $0.247-0.382 area, similar to its price trends in January 2021 and January 2023, as shown below.
ADA/USD 3D price chart. Source: TradingView
Therefore, a rebound from the $0.247-support may start an uptrend toward $0.382 by October 2023. The $0.382-resistance, up 40% from current levels, also coincides with the 200-3D EMA (the red wave).
Conversely, a decisive close below the $0.247-support gives bears more fuel to pull the price toward $0.19, down about 30%, by October 2023, a resistance-turned-support level from July 2020-December 2020 session.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.