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Crypto and stock markets are usually forward-looking. Meaning, traders tend to ignore the near-term negatives and focus on the positives down the line. With Bitcoin’s (BTC) next halving in 2024, analysts are shifting their attention to this event.

Independent market analyst Rekt Capital highlighted this unique market dynamic in 2015 and 2019, a year before halving, Bitcoin rallied 234% and 316% respectively. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s price action may spring a surprise in 2023.

However, the near term remains uncertain and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Jan. 12 may lead to a sharp uptick in volatility.

Some analysts are skeptical of the growing dominance of altcoin trading volume, which is above 50%. According to CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn, the altcoin dominance warns of “a potential risk for further downside.”

One event that is being closely tracked is the crisis brewing at the Digital Currency Group (DCG). Galaxy Digital Holdings CEO Mike Novogratz, in an interview with CNBC on Jan. 10, said that the DCG, Genesis and Gemini overhang could “play out in the next quarter” Though it is “not going to be great,” Novogratz does not believe it will trigger “a lot of selling.”

Ethereum price (ETH) gained 10.2% from Jan. 4 to Jan. 10, breaching the $1,300 resistance without much effort, but has the Ether price move cast a light on whether the altcoin is ready to begin a new uptrend.

Will Ethereum’s former resistance level turn to support?

After testing the $1,200 support on Jan. 1, the eight-week ascending channel has displayed strength, but Ether bulls fear that negative newsflow might break the pattern to the downside.

Despite the positive price trend, the sentiment around Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies hasn't been very enticing. For example, on Jan. 8, Xiao Yi, the former Chinese Communist Party secretary of Fuzhou, confessed to "acting recklessly" in support of crypto mining. Xiao seemed to speak from what appeared to be a prison, apologizing for causing "grave losses" to the Fuzhou region.

On Jan. 10, South Korean tax agents reportedly raided Bithumb's exchange offices to explore a potential tax evasion case. On Dec. 30, Park Mo — an executive at Bithumb's parent company — was found dead, though he was under investigation for embezzlement and stock price manipulation.

This week (Jan. 10), Cameron Winklevoss, the co-founder of the Gemini exchange, issued an open letter to Barry Silbert, CEO of Digital Currency Group (DCG). In the letter Winklevoss makes some serious fraud accusations and requests that the Grayscale fund management holding company dismiss Silbert to provide a resolution for Gemini's Earn users.

Solana (SOL) price is up an impressive 60% since the new year, partially boosted by hype surrounding meme cryptocurrency Bonk (BONK). However, the SOL/USD pair now shows signs of exhaustion, raising anticipations that the token may see a short-term correction in the coming days.

Solana turns overbought

Solana is one of the best performing cryptocurrencies so far in 2023 after being one of the biggest losers in 2022. 

On Jan. 9, SOL's price jumped to as high as $19.50, or around 120% gains in a recovery rally after sliding below $8 on Dec. 29, 2022.

But the price spik also turned Solana into an overbought asset, per its daily relative strength index (RSI) reading above 70, as shown below.

Traditional investors typically see an overbought RSI as a potential sell signal, given the indicator has historically coincided with a period of buyer exhaustion. As a result, SOL's price could enter a correction or a sideways consolidation stage to bring back its RSI below 70.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a brief but promising return to $17,500 overnight on Jan. 11 as newfound strength lingered.

Bitcoin fails to win over skeptical traders

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting new local highs of $17,504 on Bitstamp.

Almost tying with the peak from Dec. 16, the pair displayed rare upside momentum against a backdrop of some of the lowest volatility ever seen over the holiday season.

Now, traders and analysts anticipate an erratic reaction to upcoming macroeconomic data from the United States. Due Jan. 12, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print is expected to bolster the narrative that inflation is waning, offering a potential window of opportunity for risk assets.

Nonetheless, many voices urged caution, with signs of fundamental price support still lacking.

The average crypto investor probably isn’t planning on dying of old age anytime soon, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have a plan in place to pass on their crypto in the event they meet an unlikely demise, lawyers warn.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Dubai-based crypto lawyer Irina Heaver believes that “billions” worth of Bitcoin (BTC) has been lost due to a lack of proper death-related planning by hodlers.

She noted that many families have been unable to access their loved one’s crypto assets due to private keys being taken to the grave, and emphasized the importance of discussing crypto assets with family and including them in their will.

Heaver said that the typical crypto investor is a “male millennial” between the ages of 27 to 42, which is the age range where arranging one’s financial affairs in case of death is the “last thing” to come up in conversation.

However, the lawyer believes it is “essential” to confirm that the administrator of one’s will is proficient in using cold and hot wallets in order to properly distribute one’s holdings.

While 2022 ended on a grim note with macro headwinds providing little hope of a revival in 2023, the start of a new year has surprised bears with a surge in Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and altcoin prices. The period of sparse volatility in the crypto market appears to be ending with a breakout on the upside.

The increase has been particularly striking in some altcoins such as Lido (LIDO), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). The primary factors promoting the spike in these coins are the upcoming Ethereum Shanghai update (for LIDO) and the negative funding rate in the futures market, especially for SOL. The negative rates implies that most traders are holding short positions, giving an opportunity for whale buyers to run their stop losses. Funding rates for some other tokens remain exposed to a short squeeze.

Moreover, the new year has also seen the re-emergence of the degen gambling that had taken a back seat after the FTX collapse in November 2022. A meme coin price surge is evidence of the residual degen spirit. Technically, the total market capitalization of altcoins has surpassed a key technical resistance level as bullish momentum builds.

While the sustainability of the bull run is questionable due to the broader trend remaining bearish, the fledgling uptrend could still bring some pain for late sellers. The five primary factors influencing altcoin prices are:

Job market data revives the hope of a soft landing

Defying the Dow’s estimate for 200,000 nonfarm payrolls and market expectations of a slowdown, labor market data from December 2022 showed a 230,000 or 0.2% increase in employment.

Manta Network has recently completed the largest trusted setup ceremony ever, with over 4,000 people participating, according to a press release provided to Cointelegraph. The setup was done in order to help create MantaPay, an app that intends to allow for private payments between individuals.

According to the company, MantaPay will run on the PolkaDot parachain Manta Network, and on the Kusama parachain Calamari. It will use zero-knowledge-proofs (ZKPs) to ensure that only the sender and recipient of each payment will be able to view the payment.

Setting up a zero-knowledge-proofs system requires multiple parties to participate in a ceremony called a “trusted setup.” This process ensures that the shared secret upon which the system relies is eventually thrown away, removing the ability of an attacker to create fake proofs at any point in the future. The more people who participate in a trusted setup, the more secure the resulting system is.

MantaPay’s trusted setup was the largest ever recorded, with over 10,000 registrations and 4,328 contributions. The contributors came from a total of 177 countries, according to the team’s press release. The registration process first began on October 10, 2022, and the first contributions were made on November 28, 2022.

Polkadot Founder Gavin Wood expressed excitement at Manta Network's accomplishment. He argued that similar processes may pave the way towards decentralized web identity systems in the future, stating:

This week on The Market Report, the resident experts at Cointelegraph discuss what artificial intelligence (AI) altcoins are, what their potential benefits are, how they work, and whether they can be a catalyst for a 2023 bull market.

We start off this week’s show with the latest news in the markets:

BTC price 3-week highs greet US CPI — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week on a promising footing, with BTC price action near one-month highs — but can it last? The move precedes a conspicuous macroeconomic week for crypto markets, with the December 2022 Consumer Price Index (CPI) print due from the United States. Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, will also deliver a speech on the economy, with inflation on everyone’s radar. Inside the crypto sphere, FTX contagion continues, with Digital Currency Group (DCG) at odds with institutional clients over its handling of solvency problems at subsidiary Genesis Trading. Our resident experts take a look at these factors and more as the second trading week of January gets underway.

Digital Currency Group under investigation by US authorities: Report

ShibaSwap is a DeFi platform featuring decentralized exchange (DEX) and passive income-generating services like staking, liquidity pools, and yield farming in its ecosystem.

Launched in July 2021, ShibaSwap is a fork of SushiSwap, a popular DEX tweaked from Uniswap (UNI), the world's leading DEX by volume. But unlike its rivals, ShibaSwap's core purpose has been mostly about boosting the utility of Shiba Inu tokens.

What are Shiba Inu tokens?

ShibaSwap uses three main tokens, namel Shiba Inu (SHIB), Doge Killer (LEASH), and Bone (BONE). Let's discuss them in detail as follows.

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is a Dogecoin-inspired meme-coin created in August 2020 by the pseudonymous "Ryoshi."

During its ICO, the founder(s) distributed one quadrillion SHIB, with half allocated to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Later, Buterin donated 50 trillion SHIB to an Indian Covid-19 relief fund while sending the rest 450 trillion tokens to a dead wallet.

Investors across asset classes have been keeping a close watch on the United States Federal Reserve’s monetary policy because that sets the stage for a risk-on or a risk-off environment. 

The strong rally in the U.S. stock markets on Jan. 6 and in cryptocurrencies over the weekend suggests that market observers anticipate the Fed to slow down its frantic pace of rate hikes. The optimism was fuelled by the greater-than-expected slowdown in wage gains in the December jobs report and the first contraction in U.S. services industry activity since May 2020. The next trigger that may influence the markets could be the Consumer Price Index data due on Jan. 12.

While the cryptocurrency markets may benefit from a risk-on environment, the extent of the up-move may be limited because of the issues plaguing Digital Currency Group. Therefore, along with the macroeconomic data, crypto traders must keep an eye on the news specific to the crypto space.

Could the strength in the S&P 500 (SPX) and the weakness in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) boost crypto prices higher? Let’s study the charts to find out.

SPX

After consolidating in a range for several days, the S&P 500 index broke above the 20-day exponential moving average (3,875) on Jan. 6. This suggests that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of the buyers.

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally pushed above the $17,000 mark after rallying to $17,375 on Jan. 12.  with both the bulls and the bears eyeing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due on Jan. 12. If the print shows that inflation is cooling off, risk assets may rally, but a negative surprise could attract strong selling.

While some believe that a macro bottom could be forming in Bitcoin, others remain skeptical. They draw a parallel between the current bear market and the dot-com bubble burst. The United States Federal Reserve stopped raising rates in May 2000 but the Nasdaq did not bottom out for two more years. If the same scenario plays out with cryptocurrencies, then the next bull run may not start in a hurry.

However, one positive for the future of the crypto industry is that legacy finance companies continue to show interest in the space. Laser Digital co-founder and CEO Jez Mohideen believes that the arrival of traditional companies could help regulate the cryptocurrency sector.

Do the charts signal a rally in Bitcoin? What are the other altcoins that are showing a positive chart structure? Let’s find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin has been trading above the moving averages since Jan. 4. This is the first indication that the selling pressure could be reducing. The price reached the overhead resistance at $17,061 on Jan. 6 but the bulls could not ascend this level. This indicates that the bears have not given up yet.

Undoubtedly, 2022 was one of the worst years for Bitcoin (BTC) buyers, primarily because the asset’s price dropped by 65%. While there were some explicit reasons for the drop, such as the LUNA-UST crash in May and the FTX implosion in November, the most important reason was the U.S. Federal Reserve policy of tapering and raising interest rates.

Bitcoin’s price had dropped 50% from its peak to lows of $33,100 before the LUNA-UST crash, thanks to the Fed rate hikes. The first significant drop in Bitcoin’s price was due to growing market uncertainty around potential rate hike rumors in November 2021. By January 2022, the stock market had already started showing cracks due to the increasing pressure of imminent tapering, which also negatively impacted crypto prices.

Fast forward year, and the crypto market continues to face the same problem, where the headwinds from the Fed rate hikes have restricted substantial bullish moves. The worst part is that this regime may last much longer than the marketparticipants expect.

Clues emerge from the 1990s dot-com bubble

The dot-com bubble of 1999-2000 could teach investors a lot about the current crypto winter, and it continues to paint a grim picture for2023.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite inflated to enormous levels by the early 2000s and this bubble burst when the Fed began raising interest rates in 1999 and 2000. As credit became more expensive, the amount of easy money shrank in the market, causing the Nasdaq to drop from its peak by 77%.

The United States December nonfarm payrolls report showed a growth of 223,000 jobs, above the market's expectation of an increase of 200,000 jobs. While this shows that the economy remains strong, market observers shifted their focus to the slower wage growth of 0.3% for the month, below economists’ expectation of 0.4%. 

In addition, the euro zone’s headline inflation dropped from 10.1% in November to 9.2% in December. Both economic data boosted hopes that the central bank’s aggressive rate tightening may slow down. This triggered a rally in the U.S. and European stock markets.

However, the reaction in the cryptocurrency space remains muted, with Bitcoin (BTC) continuing to trade inside a narrow range. The crypto investors may be taking a cautious approach due to rumors about Huobi’s insolvency, which the company’s representative said were untrue.

Several analysts believe that the extended period of low volatility in Bitcoin could be followed by an increase in volatility but John Bollinger, the creator of Bollinger Bands, thinks otherwise. Responding to a tweet by Wolf of All Streets podcast host Scott Melker, Bollinger said that “prolonged squeezes are rarely valuable signs.”

Are Bitcoin and altcoins showing signs of a breakout or will they remain stuck inside the range for some more time? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

The crypto market witnessed the DeFi summer of 2020, where decentralized finance applications like Compound and Uniswap turned Ether (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) into yield-bearing assets via yield farming and liquidity mining rewards. The price of Ether nearly doubled to $490 as the total liquidity across DeFi protocols quickly surged to $10 billion.

Toward the end of 2020 and early 2021, the COVID-19-induced quantitative easing across global markets was in full effect, causing a mega-bull run that lasted almost a year. During this time, Ether’s price increased nearly ten times to a peak above $4,800.

After the euphoric bullish phase ended, a painful cool-down journey was exacerbated by the UST-LUNA crash which began in early 2022. This took Ether’s price down to $800. A ray of hope eventually arrived in the third quarter as the market experienced a positive rally led by the Ethereum Merge narrative.

The shift to an environmentally-friendly proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism was a big step forward. The event also reduced Ether inflation post-merge. During a lead-up to the Merge on Sept. 15, 2021, ETH peaked at over $2,000. However, the bullish momentum faded quickly, turning the Merge into a buy-the-rumor and sell-the-news event.

A similar bullish opportunity could be brewing in Ether as the upcoming Shanghai upgrade scheduled for March 2023 grabs the market spotlight. The upgrade will finally enable withdrawals from Ethereum staking contracts, which are locked presently. The upgrade will significantly reduce the risk of staking ETH.

On this week’s episode of Market Talks, Cointelegraph welcomes Mohit Sorout, co-founder of Bitazu Capital, a proprietary algorithmic trading and investment management platform.

This week, to kick things off, we get to know a little bit about Sorout, his background in finance and trading. We also dive into his skillset, trading style and unique approach to the crypto markets. We get his view on the current Bitcoin (BTC) market sentiment and price action. Is Bitcoin finally shifting toward a bullish trend?

Volatility has been low across the board as things have been pretty boring, but Ether (ETH) and BTC both have reported record-low volatility. What does this mean, and is this a positive sign or a negative one? What about altcoins, should traders be paying close attention to them since there isn’t much happening with the big two cryptocurrencies?

As much as we would like to put the whole FTX debacle behind us, there is still much to unfold. We get Sorout’s take on FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, the extent of the contagion and how it might continue to impact crypto markets. We also look forward to the new year and try to spot any other potential black swan events.

Next we get specific about Bitcoin and its price action. With everything happening in the world, including the Fed’s fight against inflation and the strength of the dollar index, we ask Sorout what his vision for Bitcoin’s price action is and if it has changed at all for 2023.