Decentral Block Post

News of BlackRock registering the iShares Ethereum Trust increased expectations that the asset manager may eventually apply for an Ether (ETH) spot exchange-traded fund. This is a positive sign as it shows that BlackRock’s cryptocurrency aspirations are not limited to Bitcoin (BTC).

Market observers are increasingly optimistic that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be greenlighted by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in 2024. Bloomberg Intelligence research analyst James Seyffart said on X (formerly Twitter) that there is still a 90% possibility that the regulator will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF by Jan. 10 of the next year.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz believes that the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, followed by the Ether ETF, will boost institutional adoption in 2024. During Galaxy Digital’s third-quarter earnings call on Nov. 9, Novogratz exhibited confidence that approval for ETFs “is now not a matter of if but when.”

Could the expectations regarding ETF approvals sustain the rally in Bitcoin and select altcoins, or will profit-booking set in?

Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Ether (ETH) experienced a surprising 8% rally on Nov. 9, breaking the $2,000 barrier and achieving its highest price level in six months. This surge, triggered by news of BlackRock registering the iShares Ethereum Trust in Delaware, resulted in $48 million worth of liquidations in ETH short futures. The initial announcement was made by @SummersThings on a social network, later confirmed by Bloomberg ETF analysts.

The news fueled optimistic expectations regarding a potential Ether spot ETF filing by BlackRock, a $9 trillion asset manager. This speculation follows BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust registry in Delaware in June 2023, a week prior to their initial spot Bitcoin ETF application. However, with no official statement from BlackRock, investors may have jumped the gun, though the sheer influence of the asset manager in traditional finance leaves those betting against Ether's success in a precarious position.

Professional traders placed bullish ETH bets using derivatives

To understand how professional traders are positioned after the surprise rally, one should analyze the ETH derivatives metrics. Normally, Ether monthly futures trade at a 5%–10% annualized premium compared to spot markets, indicating that sellers demand additional money to postpone settlement.

The Ether futures premium, jumping to 9.5% on Nov. 9, marked the highest level in over a year and broke above the 5% neutral threshold on Oct. 31. This shift ended a two-month bearish period and low demand for leveraged long positions.

To assess whether the break above $2,000 has led to excessive optimism, traders should examine the Ether options markets. When traders anticipate a drop in Bitcoin’s price, the delta 25% skew tends to rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically see it dip below negative 7%.

A wave of green has washed across the entire crypto market, and it won’t be long before traders on X (formerly known as Twitter) begin to explain that a new altcoin season has arrived. 

Altcoin season — or “altseason,” as the crypto bros say — typically measures the rallying of altcoins and a positive increase in the total market capitalization of altcoins.

Let’s take a look at some key indicators that market participants use to determine whether or not an altcoin season has emerged.

Total crypto market capitalization hits a 14-month high

The total market cap of crypto recently hit a 14-month high, clearly reflecting the current bullish momentum.

Similar strength is seen in the altcoin total market cap chart seen below. The metric measures the crypto market cap minus Bitcoin (BTC).

Chainlink's (LINK) token has experienced a remarkable 26% surge between Nov. 2 and Nov. 8, approaching $14, a level not seen since April 2022. This solidified its position as the 10th largest cryptocurrency (excluding stablecoins) by market capitalization.

While the price action is a welcome sight for traders, is Chainlink's current valuation of $8.1 billion justified? Cointelegraph research shows that the impressive price surge is driven by expectations of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and initial signs of institutional adoption. However, let's delve deeper to assess the sustainability of the current rally.

Spot Bitcoin ETF expectations and real world asset tokenization boost sentiment

Bloomberg's ETF strategists, James Seyffart and Eric Balhunas, issued a research note on Nov. 8, which has boosted the confidence of cryptocurrency traders.

In their note, they explain that the window for approving a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund is set to open on Nov. 9, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission concludes its latest round of postponements.

Seyffart maintains a 90% likelihood of approval, but cautions that the regulator's final decision may be delayed until mid-January.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally stalled near $36,000, but the bulls have not hurried to book profits. According to Glassnode analysis, the Long-Term Holder metric, which are addresses holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, supply is near an all-time high, while the Short-Term Holder, addresses holding coins for less than 155 days, supply is near an all-time low, indicating tightening Bitcoin supply.

Although the long-term looks positive, there could be fireworks in the short term. Bitcoin derivatives markets have seen a huge build-up of open interest, rising above $16 billion at the time of writing, per CoinGlass data. J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, highlighted on X (previously Twitter) that increases in open interest above $12.2 billion have previously resulted in a minimum dip of 20%.

While Bitcoin risks a decline in the near term, traders have started accumulating select altcoins. That has resulted in solid rallies in several altcoins, which have broken out of long basing patterns and are showing signs of starting a new uptrend. Altcoins may witness bouts of profit-booking but are likely to remain in focus as long as Bitcoin does not crumble below $30,000.

What are the critical support levels in Bitcoin that need to hold for the uptrend to continue? Will the altcoin rally sustIain, or is it time to book profits?

Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Toncoin (TON) price reached its highest levels in almost a year as crypto traders assessed a slew of optimistic updates in its market, including the recent launch of "Giveaways" on Telegram.

In result, TON is now the tenth-biggest cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of over $9 billion — its highest ever. 

Telegram CEO buys $200K of TON

On Nov. 6, Telegram announced Giveaways, a feature that enables channel owners to randomly distribute prizes among their followers.

A day later, Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram, used $200,000 worth of TON tokens to pay for Telegram Premium subscriptions for 10,000 Telegram users.

Notably, Durov used TON as a payment method within the Giveaways feature, at least for this specific case. 

Cardano has come under fire from critics for delays in the rollout of features and network upgrades. This slower-paced cadence, however, appears to be a badge of honor to Cardano Foundation CEO Frederick Gregaard, who said that the network is “boring,” considering the platform’s academic approach.

“Cardano is boring. We are boring because we are based on academic peer-reviewed papers, [and] we are sharing that across the globe,” Gregaard told Cointelegraph on the sidelines of the recent Cardano Summit in Dubai.

The executive pointed out that the pieces of research that Cardano has “spent years of doing and implementing” are already being used by some of the fast-moving blockchain platforms, which he feels “incredibly proud” of:

“If they take some of the core principles we’ve researched and invented, this is good for the earth… [and] humanity at large because this makes more resilient, more adaptable blockchains around the world.”

Gregaard added that the trend is also important with the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) that would require the industry to have computable data. He added:

Ava Labs, the team behind the Avalanche Blockchain, has confirmed it laid off 12% of its employees in a recent wave of staff cuts, citing the need to reallocate its resources.

The firm’s founder and CEO Emin Gün Sirer confirmed the news on Nov. 7 after several former Ava Labs employees announced on X (formerly Twitter) they had been laid off.

“This reduction in force affected 12% of Ava Labs, and allows us to reallocate resources to double down on the growth of our firm and the Avalanche ecosystem,” Gün Sirer said.

Gün Sirer acknowledged that bear markets can be tough to navigate but iterated Ava Labs is well-positioned with significant runway and resources at its disposal.

Ava Labs has 335 employees, according to LinkedIn, which suggests around 40 people were impacted.

Solana (SOL) experienced a notable 36.6% increase in value between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2. However, SOL’s failure to breach the $44.50 mark resulted in a 10% correction down to $40 on Nov. 6. This movement has left many investors pondering whether the ecosystem growth and network activity support Solana’s present $16.9 billion market capitalization.

Solana's peak at $44.50 on Nov. 2 was the highest it had reached since August 2022, and coincided with the Solana Breakpoint 2023 global conference held in Amsterdam. The price hype during this period even prompted BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes to admit to being a "degen" and invest in SOL, despite referring to the token as "just a meme."

During the Breakpoint conference, the Solana Foundation unveiled the testnet launch of Firedancer, a new client aimed at enhancing speed, reliability, and reducing hardware requirements for validators, addressing a longstanding criticism of this layer-1 blockchain that offers parallel computing for smart contracts.

Additionally, on Oct. 31, the Solana Foundation announced the availability of its network dataset on Google Cloud BigQuery, a serverless data warehouse solution with built-in machine learning and artificial intelligence. This enables developers and companies to access archival data and analytical insights transparently and securely.

On the development front, the Solana Foundation has maintained a consistent level of activity. This includes the approval by validators in September of the v.1.16 update, which introduced confidential transactions for SPL tokens on the Solana network using zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) marginal rise of about 1.5% last week suggests that traders are cautious at higher levels but they are not rushing to the exit. The bears have been in hibernation for the past few days but if the rally fails to resume, sellers may try to make a comeback.

However, in an uptrend, dips are usually viewed as an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate. The positive sentiment among traders can be gauged by the increase in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges which reached 61,000 Bitcoin, a strong improvement over the year-to-date low of nearly 43,000 Bitcoin, according to CryptoSlate analyst Van Straten.

A large part of the accumulation is taking place in Bitcoin in the hopes that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission will eventually approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The enthusiasm of the traders increased further on the news that the Hong Kong government may consider proposals for a spot Bitcoin ETF. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said on X (formerly Twitter) that the competition between the United States and China is good for Bitcoin.

Are Bitcoin and altcoins ready to extend their up-move or is it time for a short-term correction? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been on a tear for the past few days. The bulls pushed the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (4,275) on Nov. 2 and followed it up a break above the 50-day simple moving average (4,346) on Nov. 3.

The S&P 500 Index soared 5.85% last week, its best performance since November 2022. A large part of the gains were fuelled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates anymore. 

In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) had a much muted performance with a rise of approximately 2%. However, a positive sign for cryptocurrency investors is that a risk on sentiment is likely to benefit the crypto space.

Bitcoin’s rise attracted investments in several beaten-down altcoins, which are rising from their long-term slumber. If Bitcoin does not collapse, the recovery may spread to coins that have still not participated in the rise.

Even as Bitcoin enters a range, select altcoins are showing signs of moving higher. Let’s look at the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may extend their rally in the next few days.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin continues to trade near the $35,000 resistance and the price action of the past few days has formed an ascending channel pattern. After a sharp rally, a tight ascending channel is generally considered a negative sign.

Ether (ETH) price surged by 6.2% from Nov. 3 to Nov. 5, but the altcoin faces difficulty in breaking the $1,900 resistance. Despite the current bullish trend, Ether's 17% return over the last 30 days falls short of Bitcoin's (BTC) impressive 27% gain during the same period.

Regulatory hurdles and ecosystem centralization critiques linger

Analysts attribute some of Ether’s underperformance to uncertainty surrounding Consensys, a key player in the Ethereum ecosystem. Former employees have filed a lawsuit against the company and its co-founder, Joseph Lubin. Over two dozen shareholders of the Swiss-based holding company, Consensys AG, claim that Lubin, who is also a co-founder of Ethereum, violated a "no-dilution promise" made in 2015.

Consensys is responsible for developing and hosting infrastructure projects crucial to the Ethereum network. It was founded in October 2014, about nine months before the Ethereum blockchain launched in mid-2015. Furthermore, the High Court of Zug in Switzerland ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, exacerbating the current uncertainty.

Regulatory challenges have hampered the growth of the Ethereum ecosystem. The latest concern centers around PayPal's U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, PYUSD, which operates on the Ethereum network. This token is designed for digital payments and Web3 applications. On November 2, PayPal disclosed a subpoena it received from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In addition to regulatory pressures, there has been notable criticism of the decentralization of financial applications (DeFi) within the Ethereum network. Chainlink, a preferred solution for oracle services, quietly reduced the number of participants in its multi-signature wallet from 4-out-of-9 to 4-out-of-8. Analysts have highlighted the lack of governance by regular users as a significant issue.

The long-awaited “crypto spring” may be upon us as Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrency markets rise in anticipation of a full-on bull market. 

Over the recent crypto winter, many different projects have been growing, gaining users and building new networks. Some of these, like Polygon, are layer-2 (L2) solutions to help scale the primary protocol, Ethereum. But what are the implications of L2s? Are they a better protocol to build on or invest in? Are other layer 1s (L1s) doing anything to stay competitive?

These questions and more are the focus of a new report from the Cointelegraph Research Terminal. The report looks at up-and-coming projects in the cryptoverse, as well as case studies for L1s like Avalanche and Hedera and how they compare to the new tech that is on the rise.

Download the report on the Cointelegraph Research Terminal.

Cointelegraph’s “L1 vs. L2: The Blockchain Scalability Showdown” report is a primer to why scaling solutions are necessary for the shortcomings of L1s. The report provides explanations of what is currently going on in the world of scalability solutions to bridges and projects that focus on interoperability.

A recent attack compromised Monero’s community crowdfunding wallet, wiping out its entire balance of 2,675.73 Monero (XMR), worth nearly $460,000.

The incident took place on Sept. 1 but was only disclosed on GitHub on Nov. 2 by Monero’s developer Luigi. According to him, the source of the breach has not been identified yet.

"The CCS Wallet was drained of 2,675.73 XMR (the entire balance) on September 1, 2023, just before midnight. The hot wallet, used for payments to contributors, is untouched; its balance is ~244 XMR. We have thus far not been able to ascertain the source of the breach."

Monero’s Community Crowdfunding System (CCS) funds development proposals from its members. “This attack is unconscionable, as they’ve taken funds that a contributor might be relying on to pay their rent or buy food,” noted in the thread Monero's developer Ricardo "Fluffypony" Spagni.

Luigi and Spagni were the only two people who had access to the wallet seed phrase. According to Luigi's post, the CCS wallet was set up on an Ubuntu system in 2020, alongside a Monero node.