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Bitcoin (BTC) traced $30,000 on April 12 as looming United States macroeconomic data heightened nerves.

Analyst warns markets "discounting significance" of CPI

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering near the significant psychological level after overnight lows of $29,875 on Bitstamp.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March are due at 2.30pm Eastern time, followed by minutes from last month’s meeting of the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at which policymakers confirmed a 0.25% interest rate hike.

“Today is US CPI day, and for the first time in a long while, it feels like the market is discounting the significance of this event…,” analytics account Tedtalksmacro wrote in part of Twitter commentary.

“Trader positioning leading into today is nowhere near as conservative/risk-off as we typically would observe.”

The federal court in Brooklyn, New York, charged a former investment banker and registered broker for allegedly defrauding numerous investors by promising profits on fake cryptocurrency investments and misappropriating the funds received to finance his lifestyle. 

Documents with the court claim the defendant, Rashawn Russell, misused the growing interest in crypto investments to mislead investors. Russell convinced multiple investors to reinvest their fiat savings into cryptocurrencies, often promising significant or “guaranteed” returns. However, it is alleged that Russell misappropriated the investors’ money to fund his personal lifestyle.

Breon Peace, United States attorney for the Eastern District of New York, revealed the court’s intent to pursue the case against the former banker:

“As alleged, Russell turned the demand for cryptocurrency investments into a scheme to defraud numerous investors in order to fund his lifestyle. This Office will continue to aggressively pursue fraudsters perpetrating these schemes against investors in the digital asset markets.”

After convincing investors about the fake cryptocurrency investment scheme based on his credibility as a former investment banker and a registered broker with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Russell allegedly used their money to gamble and repay other investors.

On April 11, European cryptocurrency investment firm CoinShares published its latest “Digital Asset Fund Flows Report,” revealing that digital asset investment products experienced positive sentiment with inflows totaling $57 million last week, bringing inflows back to a net positive position year-to-date. However, despite this, "volumes were low at $970 million for the week," and the global Bitcoin (BTC) exchange market also saw low volumes, which "were just 25% of the year-to-date average at $18 billion for the week."

According to the report, inflows were primarily driven by investors in the U.S., with $27 million of inflows. Germany, Switzerland, and Canada also saw positive sentiment, with inflows totaling $17 million, $13 million, and $2.2 million, respectively, indicating a broad-based increase in confidence towards digital assets.

Investors primarily focused on Bitcoin, with BTC receiving $56 million of inflows, which accounted for 98% of all inflows. Meanwhile, short-bitcoin suffered minor outflows totaling $0.6 million. In contrast, altcoins, including Uniswap (UNI), Polkadot (DOT), and Polygon (MATIC), saw minor inflows of less than $1 million each.

The report also noted that despite the Ethereum network's Shapella upgrade scheduled for April 12, Ether (ETH) inflows were relatively minor at $600,000, suggesting that perhaps investors are cautious about investing in Ethereum until they are more confident about the impact of the upgrade. Additionally, blockchain equities saw minor inflows totaling $2.1 million, indicating a relatively quiet week for this market segment.

Related: Ethereum price retests key support level that preceded 60% gains in June 2022

XRP (XRP) rose 2.1% to $0.52 on April 11, extending its daily gains from $0.50 alongside a broader cryptocurrency market rally as traders pinned hopes on easing inflation data into April 12.

XRP price: lackluster volumes raise risk of 25% correction

XRP's upside move brought it closer to breaking out of its prevailing bull pennant range with a price target of $0.65.

However, lackluster volumes accompanying XRP's gains hinted at a potential price correction in the future. That could mean a short-term pullback toward the pennant's lower trendline near $0.51 in April or a broader correction altogether invalidating the bullish continuation setup.

The extended selloff scenario is best visible on the weekly chart below, wherein a key resistance-turned-support line has limited XRP's upside prospects.

If the fractal plays out again, XRP price will risk falling toward its multi-month ascending trendline support near $0.40 by May, down about 25% from current price levels.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) tight consolidation near its local top suggests that traders are waiting for a catalyst to start the next trending move. The consumer price data on April 12 and the producer price index data on April 13 could give insight into the Federal Reserve’s future rate hikes and shake the traders out of their slumber.

The dull price action in Bitcoin has not reduced the interest in it. According to Ahrefs search volume data, Bitcoin remains the most Googled term in the United States followed by the keywords Donald Trump and Breaking news.

Another point worth noting is that Bitcoin’s circulating supply continues to dwindle. Citing Glassnode data, investor Anthony Pompliano pointed out that 53% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved in the past two years.

If demand increases, there could be a shortage of supply, which could boost prices higher. What are the critical resistance levels to watch for in Bitcoin and altcoins in the near term?

Let’s study the charts to find out.

The algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) collapsed almost one year ago, but some Terra-related projects are still live and trying to overcome some issues.

Terraport Finance, a decentralized finance (DeFi) exchange project based on the Terra Classic blockchain, suffered a breach on its liquidity wallet on April 10. Announcing the news on Twitter, Terraport said the hacker had drained all liquidity pools from the platform, causing losses of about $2 million worth of digital assets.

“We are currently working with community members and major exchanges to secure as many of these funds as possible and blacklist wallets. All funds have been tracked,” Terraport stated.

According to social media reports, the Terraport hacker has allegedly transferred the stolen funds to exchanges like Binance and MEXC Global. The investigators have urged the exchange’s security teams to freeze the assets as soon as possible.

While Terraport has been investigating the security issue and preparing an incident report, many online crypto enthusiasts have stood up to criticize the rushed launch of Terraport.

Ripple’s XRP (XRP) is not a security because it does not fit the definition of an “investment contract,” the “only” legislative definition that it could “possibly” fit, according to Jeremy Hogan, a partner at the law firm of Hogan & Hogan.

In a series of tweets on April 9, Hogan explained that, in his opinion, XRP could only be considered a security under the definition of an "investment contract," as it doesn't fit the other definitions of a security such as stocks or bonds.

Hogan argues, however, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission has not demonstrated an implied or explicit investment contract in its suit against Ripple.

"Instead it argues that the purchase agreement is all that is required — and that is all it proves," Hogan stated.

"But that argument tears the 'investment' from the 'contract' as a simple purchase, without more, [there] cannot be an 'investment contract,' it is just an investment (like buying an ounce of gold) as there is no obligation for Ripple to do anything except transfer the asset," he added.

The long weekend has not produced any fireworks in Bitcoin (BTC) price, which continues to trade inside an ever-narrowing range. Bitcoin is on track to form a third consecutive Doji candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. This suggests that the Bitcoin bulls and the bears are not clear about the next directional move.

It is not only Bitcoin that is stuck inside a range. On April 7, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity Investments, tweeted that the S&P 500 Index had been stuck inside a range for the past nine months and a breakout was due “sooner or later.”

Bitcoin’s failure to break above the $30,000 level has attracted profit-booking in several altcoins but a few have witnessed shallow pullbacks. This indicates that traders are holding on to their positions expecting a move higher.

Let’s study the charts of select altcoins that may turn up and start an uptrend if Bitcoin breaks out to the upside. What are the resistance levels above which these five cryptocurrencies turn bullish?

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has been trading inside a tight range for the past two days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. Usually, tight ranges are followed by an expansion in volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading below $29,000 for the past several days. The analyst community remains divided on the near-term prospects of Bitcoin. While some believe that Bitcoin could rise to $30,000, others are of the opinion that a local top has been made.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone said that cryptocurrencies, along with the stock market, crude oil and copper may find it difficult to sustain the recent bounce because bank liquidity levels remain tight.

On the other hand, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, while speaking with Yahoo Finance, said that Bitcoin’s bear market may be over, but he added that it was a guess. However, Scaramucci highlighted that Bitcoin has repeatedly outperformed other asset classes over the long term.

Will Bitcoin turn down from the current level or will bulls regroup and push the price above $30,000? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has formed a symmetrical triangle near $29,000, which suggests uncertainty among the bulls and the bears about the next directional move.

XRP (XRP) has risen by an impressive 60% in the first quarter of 2023, helped by rising speculation over Ripple's legal win versus the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and broader bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

The XRP/USD pair now eyes more gains in the second quarter, primarily due to a classic bullish continuation pattern.

XRP price paints bull pennant

Late March, XRP broke above its multi-month ascending trendline resistance, averting a potential 35% correction. The rebound reached $0.58 on March 29, its highest level since May 2022.

Now, XRP has been consolidating sideways in what appears to be a bull pennant. This bullish continuation pattern forms when the price consolidates inside a symmetrical triangle after undergoing a strong rally.

A bull pennant resolves after the price breaks above its upper trendline while accompanying a rise in trading volumes. The pattern's breakout target is obtained by adding the height of the previous uptrend (flagpole) to the breakout point.

The financial and advertising regulators of the United Kingdom have teamed up to send a warning to social media “finfluencers” telling them to stop promoting illegal “get rich quick” schemes or face law enforcement.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Advertising Standards Authority (ACA) made reference to cryptocurrencies and nonfungible tokens in their April 6 statement, which laid out a seven-part checklist to ensure that finfluencers stay within the bounds of the law.

The checklist asks finfluencers to consider whether they’re the “right person” to be promoting the financial product and states that their followers may “lose all their money” from the investment. It also states:

“Don’t suggest to your followers that cryptoassets would be an easy investment decision or create any sense of urgency or FOMO.”

In addition to conducting “due diligence,” social media influences should seek approval of the FCA and ensure that the advertisement is legal, truthful and properly labeled as an advertisement under ASA rules.

The top two decentralized derivatives platforms, dYdX and GMX, are head-to-head concerning liquidity and trading volumes.

The perpetual swap daily trading volume on dYdX ranged between $340 million and $2.6 billion in March, per CoinGecko data. In comparison, GMX did less than $500 million in daily trading volumes.

The open interest (OI) volume, which measures the number of contracts traders hold on both exchanges, is closer than trading volumes. CoinGecko reported that GMX’s OI has ranged between $170 million to $200 million since March 2023 on Arbitrum alone. At the same time, dYdX’s OI volumes have stayed between $330 million to $260 million.

Notably, the ratio between trading and OI volume on dYdX is higher than GMX. The inflation of trading volumes on dYdX can be explained by the DYDX token incentive to boost trading volumes. A report from IOSG ventures noted,

“In cases where incentives are explicitly targeted at trading activity, like with dYdX, it remains difficult to determine the extent to which the trading volume would exist without such rewards.”

Trader Joe has risen to the top five decentralized exchanges by trading volume after the launch of its V2 platform on Arbitrum on Feb. 1, 2023. 

The project launched a liquidity incentive program to boost deposits for ARB, ETH and USDC trading which shared 300,000 JOE token rewards worth around $171,000. The incentive program ends on April 6.

The project’s social media account reported that Trader Joe accounted for 15.7% of the total ARB trading volume in the first week.

While JOE token incentives played a hand in increasing the liquidity for ARB token, innovation from the team in developing the capital efficiency of the DEX is the primary reason behind its growth.

Trader Joe climbs up the ranks in DEX space

Trader Joe launched a Liquidity Book (LB) model with its V2 upgrade in Q4 2022, which competes against the Uniswap’s (UNI) V3 liquidity model.

Tether (USDT) continues to benefit from the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin industry with its market capitalization growing significantly in Q1 2023 at other stablecoins' expense.

Tether market cap reaches $80 billion

On April 6, the circulating market cap of USDT surpassed $80 billion for the first time since May 2022 with a gain of $15 billion so far in 2023.

On the other hand, the market caps of its chief rivals, namely USD Coin (USDC) and Binance USD (BUSD), fell by about $12 billion and $9.4 billion, respectively.

Tether benefits from non-U.S. status

Crypto traders opted for Tether given the growing concerns around USD Coin and Binance USD.

Notably, USDC market capitalization slipped due to its $3.3 billion exposure to the now-collapsed Silicon Valley and Silvergate banks. While BUSD suffered after New York regulators ordered Paxos to shut down the stablecon's issuance.