Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) and select altcoins are threatening to deepen their correction after reports emerged that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a Wells Notice to Paxos, alleging that the dollar-pegged Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin is an unregistered security. Separately, Paxos has been ordered by the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) to halt the issuance of BUSD. 

After the crackdown on Kraken last week and now Paxos, the regulator’s actions may increase nervousness among crypto investors. FOX Business journalist Eleanor Terrett tweeted on Feb. 12 that “more Wells notices going out in the coming 2-3 weeks, I’m told.”

Volatility may remain high in the near term as market observers await the consumer price index data to be released on Feb. 14. Interestingly, Bitcoin has made a golden cross on the daily chart and a death cross on the weekly time frame.

This suggests that the medium-term trend remains negative but the short-term trend could be signaling a turnaround. Let’s study the charts to find out the critical support and resistance levels to watch out for.

SPX

The S&P 500 index (SPX) turned down from 4,200 on Feb. 2 and has reached the 20-day exponential moving average (4,057) on Feb. 10. This is an important level for the bulls to defend if they want to keep the recovery intact.

In January, ApeCoin (APE) had an underwhelming performance compared to metaverse-based tokens like Decentraland (MANA) and The Sandbox (SAND). APE token gained 61% compared to the 90% and 150% respective gains seen in SAND and MANA. The subdued gains can be attributed to the hefty APE staking rewards that is likely creating some selling pressure.

An upcoming unlock of around 9% of APE’s circulating supply in March 2023, along with not-so-impressive fundamentals, will add further headwinds for the token. The gains in APE will depend on the success of the blockchain gaming projects in the ApeCoin ecosystem and new partnerships between Yuga Labs and big brands.

Traders take advantage of oversized APE staking rewards

ApeCoin DAO launched its APE staking mechanism in December 2022. The APE staking pool yielded 90% annual returns in the first two months. Holders of the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) NFTs and related collections are eligible for twice the yields of around 171%, adding significant selling pressure for the token.

However, these traders are primarily interested in capturing risk-free APE gains instead of accumulating the token. Thus, they may eventually become a source of constant selling pressure.

The token has been heavily shorted in the futures market, especially after the launch of the staking mechanism. The funding rate for APE/USD perpetual contracts has been negative since December 2022.

Recently reported planned enforcement action against Paxos by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over Binance USD (BUSD) has many in the community questioning how the regulator could see a stablecoin as a security.

Blockchain lawyers told Cointelegraph said that while the answer isn't black and white, there exists an argument for it if the stablecoin was issued out in the expectation of profits or are derivative of securities.

A report from the Wall Street Journal on Feb. 12 revealed that the SEC is planning to sue Paxos Trust Company in relation to its issuance of Binance USD, a stablecoin it created in partnership with Binance in 2019. Within the notice, the SEC claims that BUSD is an unregistered security.

Senior Lecturer Dr. Aaron Lane of RMIT’s Blockchain Innovation Hub told Cointelegraph that while the SEC may claim these stablecoins to be securities, that proposition hasn’t been conclusively tested by the U.S. Courts:

“With stablecoins, a particularly contentious issue will be whether the investment in the stablecoin led a person to an expectation of profit (the ‘third arm’ of the Howey test).”

Bitcoin (BTC) price is trying to recover over the weekend but the current bounce lacks conviction. This suggests that dip buyers are nervous to load up before the release of January’s consumer price index data on Feb. 14 as that could boost short-term volatility. 

Although the near term is uncertain, analysts at Delphi Digital expect the United States Federal Reserve to pivot to an accommodative policy later in the year and that could be favorable for risk assets.

Another bullish projection came from Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead who said that Bitcoin’s “seventh bull cycle” may have begun. Morehead highlighted that the decline from November 2021 to November 2022 lasted 376 days and that BTC price witnessed a 77% drawdown, in line with the median downdraft of 307 days and a median drawdown of 73% seen during earlier bear markets.

The analysts seem to be turning positive on Bitcoin for the long term but the near term remains uncertain. 

Let’s study the charts of Bitcoin and select altcoins to spot the critical levels to watch out for.

For the first time since the 7th century, the paper-money economy found its true competition in the internet era. With Bitcoin’s (BTC) debut in 2010, the fiat ecosystem was not only challenged with proving its worth in day-to-day transactions but also safekeeping the investment ecosystem it helped build.

Over the years, the crypto ecosystem attracted people from all walks of life — serving their unique financial needs while filling the gaps left wide open by the fiat ecosystem. While most of the world watched from the sidelines, trying to decipher the true potential of cryptocurrencies, the first batch of Bitcoin millionaires swayed investors’ attention toward the budding ecosystem.

The freedom to stick to what makes the most sense financially sprouted various classes of investors, each distinguished by their intent behind crypto investments. Based on the overall approach taken by investors, there are four main categories of mindsets of crypto bag holders — Maximalists, hodlers, fomoers and traders.

Maximalists

Right from the day Bitcoin showcased its cross-border supremacy after being used as a currency on the dark web, numerous investors witnessed a true peer-to-peer monetary system for the first time. What followed was a pledge to stick with Bitcoin and see it overpower the centralized entities, i.e., bringing power back into the hands of the people.

This total support for Bitcoin and the belief that BTC is the only true replacement for the fiat economy gave birth to the term Bitcoin maximalism. Bitcoin maximalists have, time and again, advised the community members to hodl their assets during the bear market. Instead, they often recommend buying the dip — a process that involves investing in crypto during the market’s poor performance. And over the last decade, the recommendation checks out.

BItcoin (BTC) is beginning its “seventh bull cycle” and investors should not be scared of crypto post-FTX, Pantera Capital believes.

In its latest “Blockchain Letter” on Feb. 8, the asset management firm’s CEO, Dan Morehead, predicted that 2023 would be a “year for rebuilding trust.”

Morehead: Cryptoassets have "seen the lows" this cycle

With BTC price action retracing slightly after gaining 40% in January, some market participants still insist that new macro lows are due across crypto assets.

While the timing for such a scenario varies, consensus remains absent when it comes to how the market will rebound.

For Morehead, however, the time to flip bullish on crypto is already here.

Bitcoin (BTC) price and the wider crypto market corrected at the start of this week, giving back a small portion of the gains accrued in January, but it’s safe to say that the more experienced traders expected some sort of technical correction. 

What was unexpected was the SEC’s Feb. 9 enforcement against Kraken exchange and the regulator’s announcement that staking-as-service programs are unregulated securities. The crypto market sold-off on the news and given Kraken’s decision to close up 100% of its staking services, traders are concerned that Coinbase will eventually be forced to do the same.

The real question is, does this week’s price action reflect a change in the trend of bullish momentum seen throughout January, or is the “staking services are unregistered securities” news a simple blip that traders will disregard in the coming weeks?

According to analysts at analytics firm Delphi Digital, crypto is set up for a “roller coaster ride in 2023.” Analysts Kevin Kelly and Jason Pagoulatos explained the start of the year price action as being fueled by “recent increases in global liquidity” which are favorable to risk assets, but both agree that macroeconomic headwinds will continue to negatively impact markets until at least the third quarter of 2023.

Beyond the negative news of this week and its impact on crypto prices, there are a handful of metrics that provide some insight into how the rest of the year could be for the crypto market.

On Feb. 9, United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Gary Gensler explained why the regulator had cracked down on Kraken cryptocurrency exchange, forcing it to stop its crypto staking program for U.S. clients. This news may have rattled crypto investors and they sold aggressively. Bitcoin (BTC) crashed about 5% on Feb. 9 and several altcoins also followed suit.

The fresh round of selling has traders wondering whether the bear market has resumed or if the dip should be interpreted as a buying opportunity. This question may be troubling to investors, but for now the correction looks to be a normal corrective phase where cryptocurrencies give back some of the gains made in January. However, it would be prudent to wait for the correction to end and a bottom to be confirmed before considering fresh purchases.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said in a Feb. 7 blog post that Bitcoin may continue its bull run in the first half of the year but may face challenges in the latter half. Along with Bitcoin and Ether, Hayes is also bullish on altcoins but he said the trick is to get the timing right.

What are the important support levels to watch out for Bitcoin and altcoins in the near term? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

The $22,800 support cracked on Feb. 9 and Bitcoin plunged to the strong support near $21,480. A lack of a strong bounce off this level suggests that the correction may deepen further.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to bearish target zones on Feb. 10 as bulls failed to hold important support above $22,000.

Crypto wipeout mounts as BTC price loses $22,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $21,633 on Bitstamp.

The pair reacted badly to regulatory fears from the United States but had already faced days of bearish sentiment, with traders expecting a retest of $21,000 or even lower.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at around $21,800, down around 7% in February so far.

“Bear market back or are we just having a slight correction?” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, queried on the day.

Paxos Trust Company — the New York-based stablecoin issuer behind Binance USD (BUSD) and Paxos Dollar (USDP) — is reportedly being investigated by the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS).

A “person familiar with the matter” told Bloomberg in a Feb. 10 report that the exact motive behind the probe is currently unclear.

An NYDFS spokesperson declined to comment on ongoing investigations but noted that the department is broadly working to protect consumers from risks associated with investing in the cryptocurrency market:

“The department is in continuous contact with regulated entities to understand vulnerabilities and risks to consumers and the institutions themselves from crypto market volatility we are experiencing.”

Paxos has issued BUSD — a U.S. Dollar-collateralized stablecoin — since the firm struck a partnership with Binance in September 2019. It is the third largest stablecoin, with a market cap currently exceeding $16 billion.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and even nascent altcoins are a solid “buy,” a previously risk-off investor says.

In a blog post released Feb. 8, industry stalwart Arthur Hayes announced a U-turn on his current crypto investment plans.

Hayes changes tune on "risky assets"

Current macroeconomic conditions stemming from the United States Federal Reserve previously made Arthur Hayes keen to avoid what he calls “risky assets.”

As inflation slows and the Fed’s rate hikes with them, multiple new storms are brewing in the U.S., and the Fed, as well as Congress and the Treasury, will all steer the economy as they see fit, he says.

The problem is guessing how these events will play out over the course of the year. For Hayes, 2023 could well be split into two halves, with H1 being an ideal investment environment for crypto.

Michael Demissie, the head of digital assets at Bank of New York Mellon (BNY Mellon) is adamant that the cryptocurrency market fall in 2022 won’t waver institutional interest in digital assets. 

At a conference run by Afore Consulting on Feb. 8, Demissie said the digital asset industry is “here to stay” as institutional investors have held a strong interest in crypto.

"What we see is clients are absolutely interested in digital assets, broadly,” he said, according to a Feb. 8 report from Reuters.

Demissie backed up his thoughts by referencing a survey conducted by BNY Mellon in October, 2022, which found that 91% of custodian bank clients are interested in investing in blockchain-based tokenized products.

The survey also found that 86% of institutional players are adopting a “buy and hold” strategy, which may suggest that they see the cryptocurrency market as a long-term play.

Robinhood’s board of directors has approved a plan to buy back the $578 million stake in their company which was bought by former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX co-founder Gary Wang last year.

Robinhood confirmed it got board approval to buy back the stake in its fourth quarter report, which was published on Feb. 8.

“Our Board authorized us to pursue purchasing most or all of our shares that Emergent Fidelity Technologies bought in May 2022," said Robinhood’s chief financial officer Jason Warnick, adding

“The proposed share purchase underscores the confidence the Board of Directors and management team have in our business.”

The FTX co-founders bought 55 million shares of Robinhood stock — worth $578 million at current prices — in May through Emergent Fidelity Technologies by taking out loans directly from FTX’s sister firm Alameda Research.

The United States Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Feb. 7 that the “disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down,” has started but it is still in its very early stages.

He cautioned that strong data would be met with more rate hikes. Though the comments are mixed, they triggered buying in the S&P 500 and Bitcoin (BTC) on Feb. 7 as investors speculated that the Fed may soon end its rate hikes.

Bitcoin’s strong rally in January and signs of ebbing inflation seem to have turned around investor sentiment. CoinShares data on Jan. 30 shows that institutional investors pumped $117 million into digital investment products. That sent the total assets under management to $28 billion, a sharp 43% increase from its November 2022 low.

Although the sentiment seems to have turned around, bear markets rarely end without a retracement of the rise from the low. The price needs to form a higher low followed by a higher high to confirm a potential trend change.

What are the critical support levels on Bitcoin and altcoins that could arrest future declines? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

The Graph (GRT) price slipped on Feb. 8 alongside a broader correction across the top crypto assets.

GRT price skyrockets with other data management tokens

GRT’s price plunged nearly 14.5% intraday to $0.18, showing signs of short-term upside exhaustion after rising over 200% earlier in the year. At its sessional high, the token was changing hands for $0.23 on Feb. 7, its highest level in nine months

Buying flocked to the GRT market amid a relatively stronger risk-on mood, led by the United States Federal Reserve’s slower interest rate hikes and a strong recovery witnessed in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, which typically influences altcoins into tailing the trend.

The GRT price rally also accompanied similar gains across data management platform tokens. This sector’s market capitalization doubled so far in 2023, with Ocean Protocol (OCEAN), Mask Network (MASK) and Band Protocol (BAND) recording over 200%, 100% and 60% gains, respectively.

Will The Graph’s price correction continue?

The impressive GRT price rally has left The Graph as technically overbought, according to its daily relative strength index (RSI) indicator.