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Coinbase posts $1.1B loss, Polygon DApps rocket 400% in 2022 and Elon Musk says inflation is on the decline: Hodler’s Digest, Aug 7-13

Coming every Saturday, Hodler’s Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.

Top Stories This Week

 

Elon Musk: US ’past peak inflation’ after Tesla sells 90% of Bitcoin

With Tesla now having sold 90% of its Bitcoin holdings during the bear market, Elon Musk says the U.S. economy is “past peak inflation” and predicts that only a “mild to moderate” recession could be incoming. “We sort of have some insight into where prices are headed over time, and the interesting thing that we’re seeing now is that most of our commodities, most of the things that go into a Tesla — not all, more than half the prices — are trending down in six months from now,” Musk said at Tesla’s 2022 Annual Meeting of Stockholders.

 

Coming sooner: ETH devs move up the date for Merge

The long-awaited Merge looks to be ahead of schedule, with Ethereum core developers Tim Beiko and Terence Tsao agreeing on a developer call Thursday to tentatively set the date of the Merge for Sept. 15. The previously estimated date from Beiko was Sept. 19, and suggested that the final preparation work is going smoothly after the final Goerli testnet merge went off without a hitch this week.


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Ethereum hits 8-month highs in BTC as money heads for 'riskier' altcoins

Ether (ETH) is worth more in Bitcoin (BTC) than at any time since the start of the year amid renewed appetite for altcoins.

ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

Altcoin market cap returns to $700 billio

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms that ETH/BTC has cleared key resistance to pass 0.08 BTC on Aug. 13.

The move is impressive for largest altcoin Ethereum, as the area around 0.075 represented a troublesome sell zone which had previously kept bulls in check for since January.

At the time of writing, ETH/BTC is working to retain the newly-won level, as traders query how long its strength might last.

As Cointelegraph reported earlier, ETH/USD passed $2,000 overnight, a significant psychological boundary in itself unseen since May.

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Ominous Solana technicals hint at SOL price crashing 35% by September

Solana (SOL) risks a significant price correction in the coming weeks owing to a classic bearish reversal setup.

A 35% SOL price correction ahead?

On the three-day chart, SOL's price has been painting a rising wedge, confirmed by two ascending, converging trendlines and falling trading volumes in parallel.

Rising wedges typically result in breakdown, resolving after the asset's price break below the lower trendline. If the price follows the breakdown scenario, it could fall by as much as the maximum distance between the wedge's upper and lower trendline.

SOL is far from a breakdown but trades within a falling wedge range, as shown in the chart below. The token eyes an immediate pullback from the wedge's upper trendline with its interim downside target sitting at the lower trendline around $45. 

SOL/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

It will risk falling toward $30 if the price breaks below the lower trendline while accompanying a rise in trading volumes. In other words, a 35% price drop by September.

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Celsius Network is bankrupt, so why is CEL price up 4,000% in two months?

Crypto lending platform Celsius Network has an approximately $1.2 billion gap in its balance sheet, with most liabilities owed to its users. In addition, the firm has filed for bankruptcy protection, so its future looks bleak.

Still, Celsius Network's native utility token CEL has soared in valuation by over 4,100% in the last two months, reaching around $3.93 on Aug. 13 compared to its mid-June bottom of $0.093.

In comparison, top coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) rallied 40% and 130% in the same period.

CEL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Takeover rumors behind CEL explosion?

Technically, the price rally made CEL an excessively valued token in early August when its relative strength index (RSI) crossed above the 70 threshold.

Takeover rumors appear to be behind CEL's upside strength. Notably, Ripple wants to purchase Celsius Network's assets, according to an anonymous source cited by Reuters on Aug. 10.

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The Merge: Top 5 misconceptions about the anticipated Ethereum upgrade

The excitement around Ethereum’s (ETH) upcoming upgrade, The Merge, which involves the merger of two blockchains — Mainnet Ethereum and Beacon Chain — has unknowingly spurred rumors across the community.

Termed the most significant upgrade in the history of Ethereum, The Merge does indeed mark the end of proof-of-work (PoW) for the Ethereum blockchain. However, here are five misconceptions that stand out among the rest.

Misconception 1: Ethereum gas fees will reduce after The Merge

Ethereum’s impending upgrade will reduce Ethereum’s infamous gas fees (transaction fees) is one of the biggest misconceptions circulating among investors. While reduced gas fees tops every investor’s wishlist, The Merge is a change of consensus mechanism that will transition the Ethereum blockchain from PoW to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Instead, lowering gas fees in Ethereum will require working on expanding the network capacity and throughput. The developer community is currently working on a rollup-centric roadmap to make transactions cheaper.

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Bitcoin traders still favor new $20K lows as Ethereum hits $2K

Bitcoin (BTC) is still due to return to near $20,000, fresh analysis warns as BTC/USD attempts to retest multi-month highs. 

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Buy-the-dip set for invalidation at $20,700

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD staging a second run-up to near $25,000 on Aug. 13, so far seeing rejection.

The pair had gained over $1,300 overnight, but as bulls again ran out of momentum near crucial resistance, few were optimistic over Bitcoin avoiding a deeper comedown.

"One last high to rekt early shorts," popular trading account Il Capo of Crypto told Twitter followers.

Similarly cautious was fellow trader Jibon, who said that he would even prefer to wait and "buy higher" than spot price to rule out any trend reversals.

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Price analysis 8/12: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, AVAX

Bitcoin (BTC) could not overcome the barrier at $25,000 on Aug. 11 even though it had two catalysts in the form of a "favorable" Consumer Price Index print and news that BlackRock — the world's largest asset manager, overseeing over $10 trillion in total assets — had launched a spot Bitcoin investment product. 

In comparison, Ether (ETH) has managed to hold on to its recent gains on news that the Goerli testnet had successfully activated proof-of-stake, clearing the path for Ethereum’s mainnet transition planned for Sept. 15 or Sept. 16. Data from Santiment shows that Ether whale transactions have increased along with possible whale accumulation.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

However, analysts remain divided about the prospects of the current recovery. While some believe that Bitcoin’s rally could rise above $28,000, others are not so bullish and they expect the price to turn down and resume the downtrend.

Could buyers clear the overhead hurdle in Bitcoin and select altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin nudged above the overhead resistance at $24,668 on Aug. 11 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This indicates that bears have not yet given up and are selling on rallies.

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Crypto markets bounced and sentiment improved, but retail has yet to FOMO

An ascending triangle formation has driven the total crypto market capitalization toward the $1.2 trillion level. The issue with this 7-week-long setup is the diminishing volatility, which could last until late August. From there, the pattern can break either way, but Tether and futures markets data show bulls lacking enough conviction to catalyze an upside break.

Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView

Investors cautiously await further macroeconomic data on the state of the economy as the United States Federal Reserve (FED) raises interest rates and places its asset purchase program on hold. On Aug. 12, the United Kingdom posted a gross domestic product (GDP) contraction of 0.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile, inflation in the UK reached 9.4% in July, the highest figure seen in 40 years.

The Chinese property market has caused the Fitch Ratings credit agency to issue a “special report” on Aug. 7 to quantify the impact of prolonged distress on a potentially weaker economy in China. Analysts expect asset management and smaller construction and steel-producing companies to suffer the most.

In short, risk asset investors are anxiously waiting for the Federal Reserve and Central Banks across the world to signal that the policy of tightening is coming to an end. On the other hand, expansionary policies are more favorable for scarce assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Sentiment improves to neutral after 4 months

The risk-off attitude caused by increased interest rates has instilled a bearish sentiment into cryptocurrency investors since mid-April. As a result, traders have been unwilling to allocate to volatile assets and sought shelter in U.S. Treasuries, even though their returns do not compensate for inflation.

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Here are Bitcoin price levels to watch as BTC dips 5% from highs

Bitcoin (BTC) headed lower on Aug. 12 as a broadly expected comedown from two-month highs began to take shape.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

200-week moving average becomes pivot

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $23,615 on Bitstamp prior to the day's Wall Street open, marking 24-hour losses of around 5.2%.

The pair had seen its highest levels since June 13 as enthusiasm over declining United States inflation combined with news that the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock, was launching a Bitcoin private fund.

While some commentators hoped for Bitcoin to tackle resistance closer to $30,000 as a result, others remained cautious, with suspicions that a fresh downtrend could ensue remaining.

"Volume is dying. Channels are not impulses but corrections," popular trading account Il Capo of Crypto wrote in its latest update on the day.

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Bitcoin battles 2-month resistance amid ‘most hated’ stocks rally

Bitcoin (BTC) pierced the top of a stubborn trading range on Aug. 11 as a decidedly awkward rally took hold of risk assets.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin retracement warnings intensify near $25,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting highs of $24,750 on Bitstamp, marking its best performance since June 13.

The pair had attempted several breakouts to the top of the range in prior weeks, these all failing in the face of stiff selling pressure.

New United States inflation data released this week formed a long-awaited catalyst for change, however, with Bitcoin and altcoins rising in step with equities as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for July suggested that inflation had peaked.

On Aug. 10, the day of the release, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.1% and 1.9% respectively. BTC/USD, on the other hand, saw a daily candle of around $900.

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Price analysis 8/10: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, AVAX

The Aug. 10 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows year-over-year inflation rose 8.5% in July and while this figure is below economists’ expectations of 8.7%, it is still high. Although inflation remains much higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the marginal slowdown raises hopes that the rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have started to work. That has reduced the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in the September meeting from 68% on Aug. 9 to 37.5%, according to CME group data.

Risky assets, including the cryptocurrency markets, responded positively to the CPI print. Compared to Bitcoin (BTC), the altcoins are enjoying a stronger rally. This has pulled Bitcoin’s dominance near its yearly lows while Ether (ETH) has climbed near its yearly high.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

According to CoinShares data, Ether-related products have seen inflows of $159 million in the past seven weeks. This indicates that Ether seems to be garnering attention from institutional investors in anticipation of the Merge, which is scheduled for Sept. 19.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins sustain the higher levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin turned down from $24,245 on Aug. 8 and dropped to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($22,966) on Aug. 9. The bulls aggressively purchased the dip on Aug. 10 and are attempting to push the price above the overhead resistance at $24,668.

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Bitcoin price sees $24K, Ethereum hits 2-month high as US inflation shrinks

Bitcoin (BTC) regained $24,000 but failed to hit new multi-month highs on Aug. 10 as United States inflation appeared to be slowing.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

CPI cuts risk assets much-needed slack

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed hourly gains of around $1,000 after U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July showed a slowdown versus the previous month.

While managing $24,179 on Bitstamp, BTC/USD nonetheless did not attract enough momentum to challenge levels from the day prior.

Nonetheless, relief among traders was palpable, as declining inflation should signal to the Federal Reserve that less aggressive interest rate hikes are necessary going forward. This should in turn reduce pressure on risk assets, including crypto.

Year-on-year CPI inflation came in at 8.5%, 0.2% below expectations, while month-on-month, the figure was unchanged from June.

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TORN price sinks 45% after U.S. Treasury sanctions Tornado Cash — rebound ahead?

Tornado Cash (TORN) has lost almost half its market valuation two days after being slapped with sanctions by the U.S. Treasury Department.

The department accused Tornado Cash, a crypto mixer platform, of laundering more than $7 billion in cryptocurrencies, including a stash of $455 million allegedly stolen by North Korea-based hackers.

Immediate reactions were followed by U.S.-based crypto companies, including Circle and Coinbase. In a controversial move, the popular crypto firms blocked the movements of their jointly-issued stablecoin USDC tied to Tornado Cash's blacklisted smart contracts.

TORN price drops 45%

The news prompted traders to limit their exposure to TORN, Tornado Cash's native token.

On the daily chart, TORN's price has slipped by approximately 45% since the Justice Department's notice about Tornado Cash, to reach $18.50 on Aug. 10. By contrast, the valuation of all the crypto assets had plunged merely 6% in the same timeframe.  

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Celsius community rally to perform another short squeeze attempt

The Celsius (CEL) community has rallied on Twitter once again to fight off short positions against their favored crypto token despite multiple challenges faced by the exchange, including bankruptcy and rumors of the company’s CEO fleeing from the United States.

Thousands of tweets with the #CelShortSqueeze tag have been posted on the social media platform, advertising their long positions on CEL while encouraging others to do the same and post more content about the short squeeze. According to Twitter user Anakinsdad, the community is “at war with the shorts.” Another user posted:

Short-selling is a strategy that lets investors earn from the decline of a token or a share. It involves borrowing shares and immediately selling to purchase at a lower price later. On the other hand, a short squeeze happens when opposing investors start to mass purchase a shorted asset, and instead of the prices falling, it pumps up, leading to losses for short sellers.

This is not the first time that the Celsius community made an effort to perform a short squeeze on CEL. Back in June, community members who refer to themselves as “Celsians” brewed an unofficial recovery plan to force CEL short-sellers to take out their positions by driving the token's price upwards.

Related: Celsius vows to return from bankruptcy but expert fears repeat of Mt. Gox

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Bitcoin drops to support as looming CPI print shakes up crypto and stock markets

Crypto and equities markets took a bit of a tumble on Aug. 9 as traders grew a bit skittish ahead of tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The details of the print will shine a light on whether the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest hikes are effective in tamping runaway inflation and it could have an impact on the size of future hikes. 

Earlier in the week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk suggested that July data will reflect the United States reaching peak inflation and that any recession will be “mild to moderate.” Right now, the consensus is that July data will be lower than the record-breaking 9.1% figure seen in June. The price of energy commodities (oil, natural gas) noticeably decreased in July and the Fed is hopeful that the previous back-to-back 0.75 basis-point hikes will combat soaring prices in other parts of the economy.

As is custom, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereu (ETH) and most altcoins pulled back as traders de-risk ahead of the CPI print. BTC price dropped as low as $22,800, while Ether corrected to $1,670. The rationale that traders are sheltering in stablecoins is sensible, but from a technical analysis point of view, Aug. 9’s pullback is simply a lower support test after the most recent support-resistance flip of the past week, and large-cap assets like ETH and BTC continue to trade within their multi-week ranges.

According to independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the fear surrounding the Aug. 10 CPI is “unwarranted” and once the series of retests is complete, BTC price should rally toward $28,000.

Adding to the narrative that the current pullback is “expected”, trader @52kskew suggested that BTC’s price action is being impacted by a “healthy unwinding in perps” as spot Bitcoin is sold at a “logical resistance.”

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Bitcoin dominance hits 6-month lows as metric proclaims new 'alt season'

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing fresh competition from altcoins this month as data shows that — technically — it is already "alt season."

Figures from CoinMarketCap and TradingView show that BTC currently makes up around 41% of the overall crypto market capitalization — its lowest since the start of 2022.

Bitcoin sheds market cap prowess

After suffering at the hands of the Terra LUNA — now renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — collapse, altcoin markets have rallied considerably in recent months. 

Alongside Bitcoin's return from 18-month lows of $17,600 in June, altcoins have enjoyed their own renaissance, one tha is now giving Bitcoin bulls a run for their money. 

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin's market cap share is now at its lowest since mid-January, with the largest altcoin Ether (ETH), in particular, stealing the limelight in recent weeks.

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How to bake your own DAO at home — With just 5 ingredients!

Decentralized autonomous organizations come in all sizes and flavors. Some can seem sweet; others turn sour. It can be fun and interesting to create one that suits your needs and satisfies your hunger for something new.

We talk to the master chefs — Noam Hof of DeepDAO, Stru Delman of Aragon, and Fabien of Snapshot — who are mixing up new and exciting recipes for participatory goodness that you can bake at home.

A DAO is an online community that collectively controls a cryptocurrency fund to achieve a particular goal — whether buying a copy of the United States constitution or running a DeFi protocol — explains Delman from Aragon, an organization that “midwifes” DAOs and has helped usher almost 4,000 DAOs into existence.

“The idea is attempting to automate as many exchanges between people as possible and making it trustless so you don’t need to trust people,” Delman explains. “This makes it easier to collaborate with people that you meet online or to create a global team.”

You’ll need a good idea and a recipe for how to achieve success. Is it going to have the substance to make a fulfilling meal, or will it collapse like a badly done souffle?

Big Green DAO
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What the fork? Ethereum's potential forked ETHW token is trading under $100

An Ethereum fork token that does not yet exist, dubbed ETHW, is trading under $100 across several crypto exchanges after debuting at $30. 

ETHW and ETHS begin trading 

ETHW is the native asset to the ETHPoW chain. ETHPoW, for now, is a possible new chain backed by proof-of-work (PoW) miners as the original chain switches to proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus in September's "Merge" event.

Meanwhile, the proof-of-stake version ETHS is trading at around $1,600, or the difference between the ETH price and the ETHW price. 

As a result of this potential chain split, anyone holding a certain number of the original chain's Ether (ETH), will automatically receive an equal amount of ETHW tokens. Such speculations have prompted some exchanges to list ETHW for trading in advance.

For instance, Poloniex announced support for both ETHW, as well as ETHS, the PoS chain token, listed for trading against Ether.

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Dave Portnoy's SafeMoon position is down 94%, claims he's being sued by project

Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy has watched his investment in SafeMoon (SAFEMOON) crash by over 94%, proving to crypto enthusiasts that he is, in fact, capable of hodling during the bear market. 

The stock trader and media personality took to Twitter Monday to lament his $40,000 investment in the meme coin, which has fallen to just $2,370.94 after he didn’t withdraw a single token. “Still holding by the way,” Portnoy said. “Diamond hands.”

Portnoy claimed that he’s also being sued by SafeMoon, possibly for “trashing” the project on his show, but didn’t elaborate much further. In a separate tweet, Portnoy shared a screenshot of SafeMoon’s sales manager expressing displeasure with the Barstool frontman for giving the company “a bad look and unfair representation.” Portnoy “mentioned his SafeMoon losses on air but failed to mention he hasn’t upgraded his holdings to V2 yet,” the manager complained.

Portnoy is no stranger to cryptocurrencies, having bought Bitcoin (BTC) in August 2020 only to sell it one week later due to volatility. He later expressed regret over his lack of conviction and went on to make several additional bets on cryptos, which included SafeMoon.

Related: Dogecoin founder speaks out against ‘meme coins’

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Price analysis 8/8: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, AVAX

The United States equities markets and the cryptocurrency markets have started the week on a strong note, indicating that traders are not nervous about buying ahead of the important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July which will be released on Aug. 10.

Another positive sign is that the recent recovery in Bitcoin (BTC) has not tempted investors to exit their positions in fear of another leg down. Glassnode data shows that the percentage of supply that has stayed dormant for three or more years rose to a new all-time high of 38.426% on Aug. 8.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sold 44,000 BlackRock shares in August, the biggest sale since the COVID-19 crash. This has some analysts speculating whether the current recovery in the equities markets is only a bear market rally. If that is the case, then a downturn in the equities markets could also increase the selling in crypto prices as both remain closely correlated.

Could Bitcoin and select altcoins climb above their respective overhead resistance levels and extend the recovery in the short term? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin bounced off the 20-day exponential moving average ($22,846) on Aug. 7 and the momentum picked up on Aug. 8. The buyers pushed the price above $24,000 and could challenge the overhead resistance at $24,668.

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