The S&P 500 Index (SPX) snapped a five-week winning streak last week but it is still on track to close the first half of the year with stellar gains of nearly 13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has done much better as it is up about 29%. Both these indices have been overtaken by Bitcoin (BTC) which has risen nearly 83% year-to-date.
Bitcoin’s bullish price action and the recent rush by several firms to apply for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund seem to have attracted institutional investors’ attention. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted on June 26 that the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) — a Bitcoin futures fund — witnessed its largest weekly inflow in a year.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360Another bullish view was that of LookIntoBitcoin founder Philip Swift who said in his latest research that Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio metric is showing that Bitcoin’s supply has started to move from long-term holders to speculative investors, indicating increasing mainstream trading interest.
Could the entry of speculators boost prices further or is it a sign that the markets are overheated in the near term and may correct? Let’s analyze the charts to find out the next possible move.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index turned down from 4,448 on June 16, indicating that the short-term bulls are booking profits. That has pulled the price to the breakout level near 4,325. The 20-day exponential moving average (4,314) is placed just below this level, hence the bulls are likely to defend it aggressively.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. The bulls will then try to propel the price above 4,448 and resume the uptrend. If they succeed, the index could attempt a rally to 4,650. There is a minor resistance at 4,500 but it is likely to be crossed.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA. The index could then start a deeper correction to the 50-day simple moving average (4,206).
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index plunged below the 50-day SMA (102.68) on June 15 but the bears could not build upon this strength. The bulls are trying to form a higher low near 102.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingViewBuyers pushed the price above the moving averages on June 23 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling at higher levels. The 20-day EMA (102.92) is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
If the price closes above the 20-day EMA, the index could rise to the downtrend line. The bears are expected to defend this level with all their might. The important level to watch on the downside is 102. A break and close below this support could sink the index to 100.82.
Bitcoin price analysis
The bears are aggressively defending the $31,000 level but the bulls are not allowing the price to sustain below $30,000. This suggests that lower levels are being bought.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewA tight consolidation near the overhead resistance of $31,000 shows that the bulls are in no mood to book profits as they expect the up-move to extend further. The rising 20-day EMA ($28,288) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside.
If bulls propel the BTC/USDT pair above the $31,000 to $31,500 resistance zone, it will signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. There is a minor resistance at $32,400 but it may not hold the price for long. A rally above this resistance could clear the path for a dash to $40,000.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been trading in a tight range between $1,936 and $1,861 for the past few days. This suggests indecision between the bulls and the bears.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe rising 20-day EMA ($1,822) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls have the upper hand. If buyers kick the price above $1,936, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to the psychologically important level of $2,000. This level may act as a hurdle but it is likely to be crossed. The pair may then soar toward $2,200.
If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to tug the price below the support at $1,861. The pair may then slip to the moving averages, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If this level cracks, the pair may again descend toward $1,700.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) bounced off the strong support at $230 on June 24, indicating that the bulls are trying to arrest the decline at this level.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($250) to indicate strength. The BNB/USDT pair may then rise to the breakdown level of $265. If the price turns down sharply from this level, it will suggest that bears are selling on rallies. That could keep the pair range-bound between $265 and $220 for a while.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $230, it will suggest that bears are in control. They will then try to drag the price below the vital support at $220 and start the next leg of the downtrend. The next support is at $200.
XRP price analysis
The bulls tried to push XRP (XRP) above the 20-day EMA ($0.49) for the past few days but the bears did not relent.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewSellers will try to sink the price below the strong support at the 50-day SMA ($0.48). If they do that, the XRP/USDT pair could slump to $0.44 and then to $0.41. The gradually downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI near 45 indicate that bears have a slight edge.
On the upside, the 20-day EMA remains the key level to keep an eye on. Buyers will have to thrust and sustain the price above this level to gain strength. The pair could then attempt a rally to $0.56.
Cardano price analysis
The bulls are finding it difficult to sustain Cardano (ADA) above the breakdown level of $0.30, which suggests that the bears are fiercely defending the level.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe ADA/USDT pair has been trading in a narrow range near the overhead resistance. This indicates uncertainty between the bulls and the bears. If the price turns down and breaks below $0.28, it will point to a range-bound action between $0.24 and $0.30 for a few days.
Alternatively, if bulls shove and sustain the price above $0.30, it will signal the start of a stronger recovery to the 50-day SMA ($0.33). This level may again act as a strong hurdle but if crossed, the pair may reach $0.38.
Related: Bitcoin surfs $30K as traders hope US trading will boost BTC price
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from the overhead resistance of $0.07 on June 23, indicating that the bears are defending the level with vigor.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($0.07) has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a state of equilibrium between buyers and sellers. If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair may consolidate between $0.06 and $0.07 for a few days.
The first sign of strength will be a rally above the resistance at $0.07. Buyers will then try to extend the recovery to $0.08. On the downside, a break and close below $0.06 could start a deeper correction to $0.05.
Solana price analysis
The relief rally in Solana (SOL) is facing strong resistance at the 20-day EMA ($17), indicating that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewSellers will have to sink the price below the immediate support of $16.18 to be back in the driver’s seat. The SOL/USDT pair may then retest the important support zone between $15.28 and $14.
On the contrary, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $17.75, it will suggest that bulls have a slight edge. The pair could then rise to the breakdown level of $18.70. The 50-day SMA ($18.82) is placed just above this level hence the bears are expected to defend it fiercely.
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) turned down from the resistance line of the descending channel on June 24 and reached the moving averages.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe long tail on the June 24-26 candlestick shows that the bulls are buying the dips to the 50-day SMA ($85). Buyers will try to push the price to the resistance line of the channel which remains the important resistance to watch out for. If bulls overcome this obstacle, the LTC/USDT pair could start an up-move toward $105.
Contrarily, if the price continues lower and plunges below the moving averages, it will suggest that bears have the upper hand. The pair could then tumble to $76 and later to the support line of the channel.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
