The United States' equities markets are on a recovery path. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) surged 2.50% last week to record its best week since June. Even though Bitcoin (BTC) also attempted a relief rally, the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. In the end, Bitcoin finished the week with a marginal loss of 0.5%.
One of the main reasons Bitcoin gave back its gains was because the Securities and Exchange Commission delayed its decision on all spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications. However, this has not dented the expectations of analysts.
In a recent note, JPMorgan analysts said that the regulator will eventually approve several Bitcoin ETFs.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
The short-term price action in Bitcoin remains in flu. But that has not deterred the long-term investors who have held onto their stockpile. Glassnode data shows that the currently mined supply dormant for three years or more has hit a new high of 40.538%.
Could Bitcoin break out of its range in the next few days? What are the important levels to watch out for? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index broke above the moving averages on Aug. 29, indicating that bulls have started a strong relief rally.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
If buyers sustain the price above the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on minor dips. That will enhance the prospects of a rally above the overhead resistance at 4,607. If this level is conquered, the index will try to rise to 4,650 and subsequently to 4,800.
Resuming the uptrend is likely to be a difficult task as the bears will try to yank the price below the moving averages. If they do that, the pair may slump to the strong support at 4,325. The bears will have to break this level to start a new downtrend.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) bounced off the downtrend line on Aug. 30 and 31, indicating that the bulls have flipped the level into support.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will next try to propel the price above 104.45 and start a rally to the overhead resistance at 106. This level is likely to witness aggressive selling by the bears because a break above it will indicate that the downtrend may be over. The index could then ri to 108.
The important support to watch for on the downside is the downtrend line. If this support crumbles, the index ma descend to the 50-day SMA (102.41) and eventually to the critical support at 100.82.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin is trading near the support of the large range between $24,800 and $31,000. When the price trades inside a range, bulls generally purchase the drop near the support and sell close to the resistance.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The $24,800 level will witness an intense battle between the bulls and the bears. If this level gives way, the selling is likely to accelerate and the BTC/USDT pair could nosedive to the crucial support at $20,000. There is a minor support at $24,000, but it may not hold for long.
Another possibility is that the price turns up from the current level. If bulls surmount the barrier at $26,833, the pair could accelerate to the 50-day SMA ($28,221). Such a move will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the $24,800 to $31,000 range for even longer.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) dipped below the strong support at $1,626 on Sep. 1 but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls are trying to salvage the situation but are struggling to start a rebound. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels. Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that the bears remain in command.
If sellers drag the price below $1,600, the ETH/USDT pair could dive to the Aug. 17 intraday low of $1,550. This is the pivot level in the near term because a fall below it may open the gates for a decline to $1,368.
The first sign of strength will be a break above the 20-day EMA ($1,684). The pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $1,750.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has been trading below the breakdown level of $220 for the past few days but the bears have not been able to build upon their advantage.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The failure to sink the price below the psychological level of $200 could embolden the bulls who will try to start a recovery. The first hurdle on the upside is at $220 and then at the resistance line. Buyers will have to thrust the price above the resistance line to indicate that the downtrend may be ending.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below $200, it will suggest the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The BNB/USDT pair then risks sliding to the next major support at $183.
XRP price analysis
The bears yanked XRP (XRP) price below $0.50 on Sep. 1 but they could not sustain the lower levels as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears kept up the pressure and have not allowed the bulls to start a strong rebound off the $0.50 level. This increases the possibility of a downside break. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair is in danger of plunging to $0.41.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.53), it will signal that the bulls are attempting a comeback. The pair may then shoot up to $0.56. Buyers will have to overcome this barrier to indicate the start of a new up-move to $0.65.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been consolidating between $0.24 and $0.28 for the past few days, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.26) and the RSI below 38 suggest a slight advantage to the bears. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a drop to $0.24 increases. A break below this level may start the next leg of the downtrend to $0.22 and subsequently to $0.20.
Contrarily, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the ADA/USDT pair could challenge the resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.28). If this level is scaled, the pair is likely to rise to $0.32.
Related: Bitcoin ETF applications: Who is filing and when the SEC may decide
Dogecoin price analysis
Buyers tried to push Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on Sep. 2 but the bears held their ground.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
That keeps the DOGE/USDT pair stuck between the 20-day EMA and the important support at $0.06. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone indicate advantage to sellers. If the price breaks below $0.06, the selling could intensify and the pair may plummet to the next support at $0.055.
If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to quickly drive the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair can jump to the 50-day SMA ($0.07) and later surge to $0.08.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) is in a strong corrective phase. Buyers are trying to start a relief rally but it is likely to face selling at the downtrend line.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down sharply from the current level or the downtrend line, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That may pull the price to $18.32 and thereafter to $16.
This negative view could invalidate in the near term if bulls kick the price above the downtrend line. The SOL/USDT pair can then attempt a rally to $22.30 where the bears will likely mount a strong defense.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin’s (TON) rally has stalled near the overhead resistance at $2.07 but a minor positive is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears. This suggests that the bulls are holding on to their positions.
TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The overbought levels on the RSI suggest a possible correction or consolidation in the near term. The important support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($1.61) because a break below it could drag the price to $1.53 and later to the 50-day SMA ($1.40).
On the upside, the bulls will have to clear the hurdle at $2.07. If they manage to do that, the TON/USDT pair could indicate the resumption of the uptrend. The pair may then attempt a rally to the $2.40-2.60 overhead zone.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.