Decentral Block Post

March started off on a low due to a resurrection of inflationary fears. On March 7, hawkish comments from United States Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell amplified the market’s expectation of a 50-basis point hike in the upcoming policy rate meeting on March 22 to March 23. 

On March 8, the U.S. government’s $1 billion Bitcoin (BTC) transfer of assets seized from Silk Road sparked fears of a sell-off. Later on the same day, the largest crypto-friendly bank confirmed its collapse and planned to liquidate its crypto positions voluntarily. The week’s events sent Bitcoin to a two-week low of $20,050.

A spike in negative sentiment may preclude a bounce

The flurry of bad news and price drops caused a significant dip in CryptoQuant's Coinbase premium index, which measures the difference in trading prices on Coinbase and Binance. Higher prices indicate stronger demand in the U.S. versus the rest of the world. The premium dipped to a two-month low on the morning of March 9 as negative news piled on.

On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported fear, doubt and uncertainty (FUD) settling in the markets, increasing the “probabilities” of contrarian price bounces during this “period of disbelief.“

However, the funding rate for BTC perpetual swaps is still neutral, with no major liquidations in the futures market. It doesn’t show considerable negative bias to suggest the possibility of a short squeeze. The Fear and Greed Index also slipped to two-month lows of 44 but stayed well above historic bounce levels between 10 to 25. This suggests that any positive rallies are likely to be short-lived. 

XRP’s (XRP) price extended its gains on March 9, rising around 1.5% to $0.40, despite a general downturn in the cryptocurrency market.

XRP price four-day winning streak

The rally in the XRP/USD pair started on March 5 with the XRP market capitalization gaining over 10% in the past four days.

In contrast, the entire crypto market capitalization has dropped by about 5% in the same period, with top coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) losing 4.5% and 4%, respectively.

Ripple scores early win versus SEC 

XRP’s gains appear as investors pin their hopes on Ripple winning its long-running courtroom battle against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

On March 6, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres issued a ruling on motions filed by Ripple and the SEC to exclude the comments of expert witnesses from the upcoming summary judgment. She approved and denied the motions in part, underscoring no clear winner and loser in the matter.

Bitcoin (BTC) rested at multi-week support at the March 9 Wall Street open as concerns over a deeper BTC price drop increased.

Trader: $19,700 "on the table"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $21,800 on Bitstamp.

With $22,000 in danger of flipping from support to resistance, popular trader Pentoshi was among those warning that further undoing of support may come next.

“We made it. Best r/r currently however not a fan of the slow bleed. Would have liked a SFP (one may still come),” he wrote in an update on a prior BTC price forecast.

“Below this can get ugly w 19.7-20.5k on the table.”

Bitcoin (BTC) traders remain sensitive even to small price movements as data shows liquidations climbing.

As BTC/USD approaches $21,600 on March 9, those who are long BTC are seeing positions evaporate.

Longs begin to disappear with BTC at three-week lows

Despite consensus forming around Bitcoin retesting $20,000, small shifts in price are still taking a toll on traders.

According to data from monitoring resource Coinglass, March 8 saw $24.4 million of BTC longs liquidated — the highest tally in almost a week.

This coincided with BTC/USD heading to three-week lows, abandoning $22,000 as support. The downtrend continues at the time of writing, while liquidations for the day remain negligible.

Bitcoin’s price (BTC) fell below a four-day narrow trading range near $22,400 on March 7 following comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he sat before a Senate banking committee. During the congressional appearance, the Fed chairman warned that the bank is prepared to tame inflation by pushing for more significant interest rate increases.

Fed Chair Powell added that "the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated," and that recent economic data was "stronger than expected." These remarks significantly increased investors' expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate hike on March 22, putting pressure on risk assets such as stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin.

That movement could explain why the $565 million Bitcoin weekly options expiry on March 10 will almost certainly favor bears. Nonetheless, additional negative crypto market events might have also played a significant role.

Bitcoin from the Silk Road and Mt. Gox are on the move

The movement of multiple wallets linked to U.S. law enforcement seizures on March 8 added to the price pressure on Bitcoin investors. Over 50,000 Bitcoin worth $1.1 billion were transferred, according to data shared by on-chain analytics firm PeckShield.

Furthermore, 9,860 BTC were sent to Coinbase, raising concerns about the coins being sold on the open market. These wallets are directly linked to the former Silk Road darknet marketplace and were seized by law enforcement in November 2021.

Like it or not, for crypto investors, the U.S. Federal Reserve policy on interest rate hikes and high inflation is the single most relevant measure for gauging demand for risk assets. By increasing the cost of capital, the Fed boosts the profitability of fixed-income instruments, but this is detrimental to the stock market, real estate, commodities and cryptocurrencies.

One positive aspect of the Fed's meetings is that they are scheduled well in advance, so Bitcoin (BTC) traders can prepare for those. Federal Reserve policy decisions historically cause extreme intraday volatility in risk assets, but traders can use derivatives instruments to yield optimal results as the Fed adjusts interest rates.

Another challenge for traders is they face pressure from Bitcoin being highly correlated to equities. For example, the 50-day correlation coefficient versus the S&P 500 futures has been running above 70% since Feb. 7. Although it does not state cause and consequence, it is evident that cryptocurrency investors are waiting for the direction of traditional markets.

It's also possible that Bitcoin's low emissions could prove to be a benefit as investors realize that the FED is running out of options to curb inflation. By raising interest rates even further, it could cause the U.S. government's debt repayments to spiral out of control and eventually surpass $1 trillion annually. This creates a huge incentive for Bitcoin bulls, but extreme caution is needed by those willing to make trades based on interest rate hikes.

Risk takers could benefit from buying Bitcoin futures contracts to leverage their positions, but they could also be liquidated if a sudden negative price move occurs ahead of the FED's decision on March 22. For this reason, pro traders are more likely to opt for options trading strategies such as the skewed iron condor.