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The crypto market is currently going through a period of heightened volatility as global economic conditions continue to worsen amid a backdrop of rising inflation and interest rates. 

As the headwinds impacting global financial markets beat down all traces of bullish sentiment, many crypto investors are predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) price could drop to as low as $10,000 before a market bottom is found.

While many traders scoffed at the idea of BTC falling below its 2017 all-time high, the recent dip to $17,600 suggests that this bear market could be different from the last one.

Here’s what several analysts are saying about the possibility of Bitcoin falling to $10,000 in the next few weeks.

Historic pullbacks point to a low at $10,350

Insight into how BTC may perform in the short-term can be gleaned by looking at its performance during the bear market cycles of 2013 and 2017. In 2013, the maximum drawdown for Bitcoin was 85%, which took place over a period of 407 days. The maximum drawdown in 2017 was 84% and this period lasted for 364 days.

Your favorite trader is saying Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed. At the same time, the top on-chain indicators and analysts are citing the current price range as a “generational buy” opportunity. Meanwhile, various crypto and finance media recently reported that Bitcoin miners sending a mass of coins to exchanges are a sign that $17,600 was the capitulation move that pins the market bottom. 

There’s so much assurity from various anon and doxed analysts on Crypto Twitter, yet Bitcoin price is still in a clear downtrend, and the metrics don’t fully reflect that traders are buying every dip.

A critical component of BTC price that many investors often overlook is the condition and sentiment of Bitcoin miners, which is exactly why Cointelegraph had a chat with Rich Ferolo of Blockware Solutions and Will Szamosszegi of Sazmining Inc. to gain clarity on what’s happening in the mining industry and how this might impact market sentiment going forward.

Cointelegraph: Is the bottom in for Bitcoin? The price touched $17,600 nearly two weeks ago and it’s starting to feel like the fund-driven capitulation armageddon might be over. Thoughts?

Will Szamosszegi: It’s impossible to say whether or not Bitcoin has hit a bottom. In general, I recommend a dollar-cost-averaging strategy to people: Just buy however much Bitcoin you feel comfortable with on a consistent schedule. We’ve seen drawdowns even bigger than this before — such as 93.7% in its early days and 83.4% in 2018. Bitcoin has always made gains over any four-year period in its history.

Cardano (ADA) has started painting a bearish continuation pattern on its longer-timeframe charts, raising its likelihood of undergoing a major price crash by August.

ADA price in danger of a 60% plunge

Dubbed the "bear pennant," the pattern forms when the price consolidates inside a range defined by a falling trendline resistance and rising trendline support after a strong move downside. Additionally, the consolidation moves accompany a decrease in trading volumes.

Bear pennants typically resolve after the price breaks below their trendline support and, as a rule, could fall by as much as the height of the previous big downtrend, called a "flagpole," as illustrated in the chart below. 

As a result, a decisive breakdown below ADA's bear pennant structure could mean extended declines to the level at length equal to the flagpole. In other words, the target for Cardano's price will be $0.20, down over 60% from June 28's price.

In the meantime, ADA shows signs of consolidating inside the pennant's range with its imminent bias looking skewed toward bulls. This opens the door for ADA/USD to rebound from the pennant's rising trendline support near $0.46 to rally toward its falling trendline resistance around $0.60 by July.

Bitcoin (BTC) played wait-and-see with traders on June 28 as Wall Street opened to flat performance.

Bollinger eyes "logical place" for Bitcoin bottom

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $21,000 on Bitstamp, refusing to commit to a firm trend.

The pair nonetheless avoided fresh signs of weakness, leading Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe to believe that an attack on important levels — notably the 200-week moving average near $22,400 — could be next. 

"In the past, Bitcoin has been a steal under its realized price, i.e., aggregate cost basis of all coins in supply. The realized price is currently sitting at around $22,500," popular trading account Game of Trades added.

While few expected a clear bullish trend to emerge, long-term perspectives also placed importance on current price levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) bear markets come in many shapes and sizes, but this one has given many reason to panic.

BTC has been described as facing "a bear of historic proportions" in 2022, but just one year ago, a similar feeling of doom swept crypto markets as Bitcoin saw a 50% drawdown in weeks.

Beyond price, however, 2022 on-chain data looks wildly different. Cointelegraph takes a look at three key metrics demonstrating how this Bitcoin bear market is not like the last.

Hash rate

Everyone remembers the Bitcoin miner exodus from China, which effectively banned the practice in one of its most prolific areas.

While the extent of the ban has since come under suspicion, the move at the time saw huge numbers of network participants relocate — mostly to the United States — in a matter of weeks. 

Bear markets have historically been challenging to navigate for traders and the conventional set of "reliable" indicators that determine good entry points are unable to predict how long a crypto winter might last.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent recovery back above the psychologically important price level of $20,000 was a sign to many traders that the bottom was in, but a deeper dive into the data suggests that the short-term relief rally might not be enough proof of a macro-level trend change.

Evidence pointing to the need for caution was provided in a recent report by cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, which suggested that “we need to see a little more pain before we have conviction that a market bottom is in.”

Despite the pain that has already been felt since Bitcoin’s price topped in November, a comparison between its pullback since then and the 2017 market top points to the possibility of further decline in the short-term.

During previous bear markets, the price of BTC fell by roughly 85% from its top to the eventual bottom. According to Delphi Digital, if history were to repeat itself in the current environment it would translate into “a low just above $10,000 and another 50% drawdown for current levels.”