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TL;DR:

Not sure if you’re in a bull or bear market? This guide breaks down how to spot the difference using price action, volume, sentiment and onchain data. Learn how to recognize market cycles, what signals to watch for and how to adjust your strategy for each phase so you can trade smarter.

Crypto markets can feel like emotional rollercoasters, prices soaring one month, then crashing the next. You're not alone if you’ve ever wondered whether you are in a bull or a bear market.

In the simplest terms:

A bull market is when prices keep going up, people are excited and there’s a general sense that the future is bright. Think back to late 2020 and early 2021; Bitcoin (BTC) climbed from around $10,000 to nearly $70,000. New projects were launching daily and it felt like everyone from your cousin to your Uber driver was buying crypto.

On the flip side, a bear market is when prices drop consistently, investors pull back, and sentiment sours. A good example? 2022. After hitting all-time highs, the market tumbled. Bitcoin fell below $20,000, projects collapsed (remember Terra?), and even veteran traders started discussing “building in the bear.”

For months, Cointelegraph took part in an investigation centered around a suspected North Korean operative that uncovered a cluster of threat actors attempting to score freelancing gigs in the cryptocurrency industry.

The investigation was led by Heiner Garcia, a cyber threat intelligence expert at Telefónica and a blockchain security researcher. Garcia uncovered how North Korean operatives secured freelance work online even without using a VPN.

Garcia’s analysis linked the applicant to a network of GitHub accounts and fake Japanese identities believed to be associated with North Korean operations. In February, Garcia invited Cointelegraph to take part in a dummy job interview he had set up with a suspected Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) operative who called himself “Motoki.”

Ultimately, Motoki accidentally exposed links to a cluster of North Korean threat actors, then rage-quit the call.

Here’s what happened.

Opinion by: Barna Kiss, CEO of Malda

An idea recently floated by some prominent thinkers in the Ethereum space to reclaim value for the mainnet is the taxing of its Layer-2s. The future of Ethereum does not depend on policy but on enabling frictionless capital movement between the L2s in question. Tariffing rollups may appear a neat way to reclaim value for the mainnet. In practice, it would fragment the ecosystem, drain liquidity, push users toward centralized platforms, and avoid decentralized finance altogether. In a permissionless system, capital flows to where it is treated best, and Ethereum's rollups mistreat it.

Liquidity fragmentation is Ethereum's real threat

In traditional finance, the link between fluidity and growth is well established. Lower barriers to capital inflows lead to higher investment. Take the European Union's pre-Brexit single market. Investment flows slowed when the United Kingdom's exit fragmented access to capital pools, as economists tracking cross-border activity noted. Ethereum faces a decentralized parallel. 

Rollups, particularly those that are optimistic and ZK-based, impose delays of up to a week on withdrawals and offer only patchy cross-rollup liquidity. The result is a fragmented system in which adoption slows, and capital is underused.

Developers are left with two poor choices. Either they focus on one rollup and limit their audience, or fragment liquidity across several and accept inefficiencies. Neither option serves the ecosystem's long-term interests. A significant opportunity lies, therefore, with protocols that remove these frictions. They will attract more capital, operate more efficiently, and deliver better experiences.

US Representative Maxine Waters, ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee (HFSC), led some Democratic lawmakers out of a joint hearing on digital assets in response to what she called “the corruption of the President of the United States” concerning cryptocurrencies.

In a May 6 joint hearing of the HFSC and House Committee on Agriculture, Waters remained standing while addressing Republican leadership, saying she intended to block proceedings due to US President Donald Trump’s “ownership of crypto” and oversight of government agencies. Digital asset subcommittee Chair Bryan Steil, seemingly taking advantage of a loophole in committee rules, said Republican lawmakers would continue with the event as a “roundtable” rather than a hearing.

HFSC Chair French Hill urged lawmakers at the hearing to create a “lasting framework” on digital assets, but did not directly address any of Waters’ and Democrats’ concerns about Trump’s involvement with the crypto industry. Hill said Waters was making the hearing a partisan issue and shutting down discussion on a digital asset regulatory framework.

Waters’ objection and leading members of Congress opposed to Trump’s crypto ties to a shadow hearing was part of a strategy announced by the Democratic lawmaker on May 5.

Amid his 2024 campaign and once taking office in January, Trump has faced criticism for the launch of his memecoin, a recent offer to have top tokenholders attend an exclusive dinner, and his family’s ties to the crypto platform World Liberty Financial.

Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao expects Bitcoin’s price to top at $500,000 to $1 million during this market cycle.

During an interview with Rug Radio published on May 5, Zhao said that he expects Bitcoin to reach up to one million dollars during this market cycle. He also highlighted the role of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in this rise, saying that the increasing institutionalization of Bitcoin is a good thing for the market:

“There’s the ETFs. There’s this institutionalization of Bitcoin [ … ] it’s a positive in terms of price action, obviously. Our bags are up  —  not the alt‑coins as much, but at least Bitcoin is.”

Zhao explained that the ETFs are “bringing the traditional institution money into crypto” and “most of the money in the US is institutional money.” He said that “Bitcoin is going up because most of the ETFs are Bitcoin-based.”

Changpeng Zhao at Rug Radio. Source; YouTube

Related: Binance co-founder CZ proposes Bitcoin, BNB for Kyrgyzstan reserves

Governments are in on it, too

Zhao also highlighted that governments are increasingly buying Bitcoin as well, which “is really good for the price action.” He also said:

Southeast Asia’s superapp Grab has partnered with Natix, a project within Solana’s decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN), to cooperate on mapping and autonomous driving technologies.

The joint collaboration aims to combine Natix’s blockchain-based mapping data with Grab’s camera hardware and mapmaking technology featuring artificial intelligence support, Natix said in an announcement on May 6.

“This partnership brings together the best of both worlds,” the announcement noted, pointing to Grab’s expertise in crowdsourced mapping and Natix’s unique DePIN model that rewards users for providing decentralized data input.

Source: Natix

“By combining GrabMaps’ AI-powered mapping technology with Natix’s decentralized data network, we’re enabling real-time, high-fidelity map updates across the globe,” Grab’s mapping service, GrabMaps, wrote in a LinkedIn post on Tuesday.

360° vehicle imagery for Tesla drivers

As part of the collaboration, Natix will launch VX360, a device built on Grab’s hardware platform that allows Tesla drivers to collect and share 360° vehicle imagery, GrabMaps said in the LinkedIn statement.

Key points:

Bitcoin is struggling again as gold retakes the limelight with week-to-date gains of nearly 5%.

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is under scrutiny amid ongoing macroeconomic shifts.

Traders see a short-term slump amid a wider BTC price rebound.

Bitcoin (BTC) eyed fresh month-to-date lows into the May 6 Wall Street open as “directionless” crypto markets contrasted with a gold rebound.

Democratic lawmakers in Washington are backing off support for crypto legislation amid heightened concerns over corruption, including the conduct of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI).

In March, the GENIUS Act, which would regulate stablecoins in the US, passed a critical committee reading with the support of several pro-crypto Democrats. Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Andy Kim and Angela Alsobrooks voted with Republicans, opposite lead Democrat and prominent crypto critic Senator Elizabeth Warren.

The bill passed the committee only after a number of changes were made, including stricter requirements for stablecoin issuers and provisions for Anti-Money Laundering, countering terrorism financing and risk management procedures. 

Now, it seems that even those provisions are insufficient to quell Democratic concerns. Following some high-profile crypto deals that personally enrich President Donald Trump, Congressional Democrats are pulling their support.

Bipartisan efforts on stablecoin bills endangered

Of the five pro-crypto Democrats to pass the GENIUS Act in the Senate Banking Committee, four signed their names to a statement on May 3, saying that they do not feel comfortable with the direction stablecoin legislation is taking.

“The bill as it currently stands still has numerous issues that must be addressed, including adding stronger provisions on anti-money laundering, foreign issuers, national security, preserving the safety and soundness of our financial system, and accountability,” the announcement reads.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium index turned negative for the first time in 15 days, indicating defensive short-term sentiment among US investors.

Bitcoin CME futures gaps between support at $92,000-$92,500 and resistance at $96,400-$97,400 suggest a period of range-bound trading.

Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium index, which measures the gap between BTC price at Coinbase Pro and Binance exchange, turned negative after a 15-day positive stint, signaling potential bearish sentiment among US investors.

This drop coincides with Bitcoin (BTC) slipping below $94,000, and the premium’s decline suggests reduced buying pressure on Coinbase, which is viewed as a proxy for both institutional and retail demand.

While blockchain infrastructure may be ready for institutional use, many legal teams at big firms remain cautious about fully integrating the technology. 

At the Token2049 event in Dubai, DoubleZero Labs founder and former Solana head of strategy Austin Federa told Cointelegraph that today’s high-performance blockchains like Solana are technically capable of supporting large-scale institutional usage. However, lawyers need to catch up. 

“Most blockchains nowadays, especially things like Solana, are fast enough for institutions to use them,” Federa said. “It’s really more about the institutions and the institution’s lawyers getting comfortable with crypto.”

Federa added that institutional lawyers and compliance teams are still addressing regulatory concerns. The executive said this may slow adoption despite the growing regulatory clarity in key markets like the United States. 

DoubleZero Labs founder Austin Federa. Source: Cointelegraph

Institutions are coming; they just move slow

According to Federa, technical infrastructure is no longer a primary barrier for large firms. Tools needed to support enterprise-scale activity on networks like Solana are already in place:

Investment bank Citi and Switzerland’s SIX Digital Exchange (SDX) are teaming up to modernize traditional private markets through tokenization.

The initiative, revealed during the Point Zero Forum in Switzerland, will leverage SDX’s blockchain-based Central Securities Depositary (CSD) platform to tokenize, settle and safekeep assets, according to a May 6 announcement.

The platform, expected to go live by the third quarter of 2025, will make late-stage, pre-initial public offering (IPO) equities accessible to institutional and eligible investors globally.

The project offers issuers a compliant and scalable framework to manage liquidity, particularly for early investors and employees, while maintaining cap table control. For investors, it opens access to high-growth, venture-backed companies in a more efficient and transparent manner.

“We are excited to welcome Citi to the SDX platform and together deliver this landmark project in the tokenization of private shares,” said David Newns, head of SDX.

Decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) HydraDAO claims that its researchers were able to use a novel technique to repair severed spines in rats.

In a May 5 X post, decentralized science (DeSci) project HydraDAO said that one of its research projects resulted in “rats who had their spines fully transected” being able to walk again. More notably, recovery from surgery reportedly only took five days.

Source: HydraDAO

The post featured a video of partially shaved (presumably due to surgery) rats walking in what appeared to be a laboratory setting. The effort in question is the Dowell spinal fusogens project led by Michael Lebenstein-Gumovski, which raised 380,700 USDC (USDC) from donors. The dedicated HydraDAO page reads:

“The Dowell team submitted a project proposal to HydraDAO. After careful consideration and two peer reviews, HydraCore deems it in the interest of HydraDAO’s community.“

Related: Experts to gather in Miami to drive longevity research forward

More than smoke and mirrors?

Fusogens are chemicals capable of fusing cell membranes and have long been researched as a means to reconnect severed nerve fibers. One such chemical is polyethylene glycol (PEG), which was shown to promote membrane fusion and seal axonal membranes in other research.

Key takeaways:

Berkshire holds $347B in cash, enough to buy ~18% of Bitcoin’s supply.

Greg Abel has not signaled a shift from Warren Buffett’s anti-Bitcoin stance.

Berkshire already has indirect crypto exposure via Nu Holdings, Jefferies.

Warren Buffett announced at Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting on May 3 that he will step down as CEO by the end of 2025, with Greg Abel taking over. This transition raises speculation about Berkshire’s financial capacity to purchase Bitcoin (BTC) under the new leadership.

Petr Kozyakov, CEO of crypto payments platform Mercuryo, told Cointelegraph that the future of finance may not be a winner-takes-all scenario but a blend of digital assets and fiat, each used where it makes the most sense. 

In a Cointelegraph interview, Kozyakov said that while crypto payments are seeing an increase in adoption and demand, the asset class won’t be fully replacing fiat money anytime soon. He said the two asset classes will coexist, with people choosing the more convenient payment option in different situations. 

“We don’t think crypto will replace fiat,” Kozyakov told Cointelegraph. “They will coexist, and people will turn to crypto when it’s the easier, more practical option, whether that’s for payroll, yield or money transfers.”

Mercuryo Petr Kozyakov at the Token2049 event in Dubai. Source: Cointelegraph

Crypto payroll gains momentum as payment options expand

Crypto as a salary payment option is no longer a novelty. Kozyakov told Cointelegraph that more companies are settling employee salaries with crypto assets. 

“That is a growing trend,” Kozyakov said. “I see a lot of businesses that are starting to settle with their full-time employees and with their gig employees all over the world, in crypto.”

Veteran US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) official Trish Turner was appointed to lead the agency’s digital assets division following the departure of two key crypto-focused executives.

Turner, who has spent over 20 years at the IRS and most recently served as a senior adviser within the Digital Assets Office, will now head the unit, according to a report from Bloomberg Tax citing a person familiar with the situation.

Her promotion marks a significant leadership transition at a time when US crypto tax enforcement is facing both internal and external pressures.

On May 5, Sulolit “Raj” Mukherjee and Seth Wilks, two private-sector experts brought in to lead the IRS’s crypto unit, exited after roughly a year in their roles.

Mukherjee served as compliance and implementation executive director, while Wilks oversaw strategy and development. Wilks announced his departure on LinkedIn, while Mukherjee confirmed his decision in a statement to Bloomberg Tax.

The CEO of crypto exchange OKX’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) division has called on the industry to prioritize real-world utility as interest in tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs) continues to grow.

In a Cointelegraph interview at the Token20249 event in Dubai, OKX MENA CEO Rifad Mahasneh warned that while tokenization is promising, projects must “clearly demonstrate” the benefits of tokenizing specific assets. 

“In some cases, we’re tokenizing things that don’t need tokenization, but in some cases, we’re tokenizing things that actually give you real, everyday value, right? And if you can see that everyday value, then that is a promising project,” Mahasneh told Cointelegraph.

He said hype can drive project growth in the Web3 space, but providing everyday value should be the priority. 

OKX MENA CEO Rifad Mahasneh at the Token2049 media lounge. Source: Cointelegraph

RWA tokenization gains traction in the UAE

Mahasneh’s comments come amid an increase in real-world asset tokenization projects in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates.

Opinion by: Simon Cain, contributor at Bitcoin Policy UK

Most jurisdictions globally are researching, developing or implementing retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). If you see these as harmless move-with-the-times digital updates of old-fashioned paper money, look again. CBDCs potentially mean financial serfdom via a monetary panopticon where the authorities closely control every transaction. 

If you think this sounds paranoid, just consider the words of Augustin Carstens, head of the Bank for International Settlements — the central bank for the world’s central banks. Lamenting the authorities’ current inability to control cash transactions, he says that with a CBDC, a “central bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine use... also we will have the technology to enforce that.. that makes a huge difference with respect to what cash is.”

How “absolute control” might work

CBDCs could be programmed so you can only buy certain things from certain people, at certain times, within specific dates, or only in approved locations. Their validity could depend on compliance with all government policies (climate, medical, social, and tax). They could be subject to maximum or minimum holding limits. They could be programmed to discourage saving and encourage 'investing' in approved shares and bonds (such as the new EU 'SIU' initiative or in line with UK financial industry lobbying and 'research'). 

Politicians and central bankers may say they do not intend to implement any such controls, but such assurances are worthless. To quote the UK Parliament's own Economic Affairs Committee, "while the Governor of the Bank of England told the committee that he did not see a CBDC as a way to implement monetary policy, the committee noted that his successors may disagree".

Efforts to pass crypto legislation in the US Senate face mounting resistance amid growing ethical concerns around US President Donald Trump’s ties to crypto.

In a May 5 letter to the Office of Government Ethics, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley said that Trump and his family stand to personally profit from an investment involving UAE state-backed firm MGX, crypto exchange Binance and World Liberty Financial (WLFI).

The senators called for an urgent probe, warning the deal may violate the US Constitution’s Emoluments Clause and federal bribery statutes.

At the center of the controversy is WLFI’s USD1 stablecoin, reportedly chosen for a $2 billion investment MGX plans to make into Binance.

The senators said the transaction amounts to a potential backdoor for foreign influence and self-enrichment, with Trump’s allies allegedly set to receive hundreds of millions of dollars:

Bitcoin Core developers have decided to remove a limit on transaction data in the next network upgrade, enabling more data to be included in a more efficient way. 

“Bitcoin Core’s next release will, by default, relay and mine transactions whose OP_RETURN outputs exceed 80 bytes and allow any number of these outputs,” read the announcement on GitHub by Bitcoin developer Greg Sanders on May 5. 

The long-standing limit was originally a “gentle signal that block space should be used sparingly for non-payment proof of publication data,” has outlived its utility, he added. 

The proposal (PR 32359) was created by Bitcoin pioneer Peter Todd at the request of Chaincode Labs. 

OP_RETURN is a special type of Bitcoin (BTC) transaction output that allows storing small amounts of data on the blockchain, popularized during the ordinals inscriptions craze in early 2024.