Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to restore the $24,000 support since Celsius, a popular staking and lending platform, paused withdrawals from its platform on June 13. A growing number of users believe Celsius mismanaged its funds following the collapse of the Anchor Protocol on the Terra (LUNA; now LUNC) ecosystem and rumors of its insolvency continue to circulate.

An even larger issue emerged on June 14 after crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) reportedly lost $31.4 million through trading on Bitfinex. Furthermore, 3AC was a known investor in Terra, which experienced a 100% crash in late May.

Unconfirmed reports that 3AC faced liquidations totaling hundreds of millions from multiple positions agitated the market in the early hours of June 15, causing Bitcoin to trade at $20,060, its lowest level since Dec. 15, 2020.

Let’s take a look at current derivatives metrics to understand whether June 15’s bearish trend reflects top traders' sentiment.

Margin markets deleveraged after a brief spike in longs

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency and leverage their trading position to potentially increase returns. For example, one can buy cryptocurrencies by borrowing Tether (USDT) to enlarge exposure.

Bitcoin (BTC) spared hodlers the pain of losing $20,000 on June 15 after BTC/USD came dangerously close to last cycle's high.

Bitcoin "bottom" fools nobody

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD surging higher after reaching $20,079 on Bitstamp.

In a pause from its sell-off, the pair followed United States equities higher on the Wall Street open, hitting $21,700. The S&P 500 gained 1.4% after the opening bell, while the Nasdaq Composite Index managed 1.6%.

The renewed market strength, commentators said, was thanks to the majority already pricing in outsized key rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, due to be confirmed on the day.

Nonetheless, it was crypto taking the worst hit in the inflationary environment, Bloomberg chief commodity strategist Mike McGlone noted. In a tweet, he contrasted Bitcoin and altcoin performance with skyrocketing commodities, notably WTI crude oil, futures of which now traded at almost double their 200-week moving average.

The price of Nexo (NEXO) continued to fall on June 15 as crypto lending firms continue to be shaken by the falling cryptocurrency market.

Meanwhile, Nexo has denied rumors of exposure to Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a Dubai-based crypto fund facing insolvency risks.

NEXO price suffers on DeFi contagion fears 

NEXO, which serves as a security token at a cryptocurrency lending platform of the same name, fell nearly 25% to $0.61 a unit, its lowest price reading since January 2021.

The massive intraday decline came as a part of a broader downside move this week, which stretched NEXO's losses to 40%.

An ongoing contagion in the crypto lending sector contributed to NEXO's underperformance.

Bitcoin (BTC) could be on the verge of a retail major sell-off as exchange inflows spike to almost three-and-a-half-year highs.

Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows users of 21 major exchanges sending coins to their wallets en masse on June 14.

Major exchanges finish up 83,000 BTC in a single day

As BTC/USD fell to lows of $20,800, panic appeared to set in among traders, and despite a reversal that at one point topped $23,000, few seemed willing to trust that the worst was over.

Since then, spot price action has returned to near $21,000, while 24-hour exchange inflows reached 59,376 BTC.

According to CryptoQuant data, this is the largest daily inflow since November 30, 2018. On that day, exchanges recorded 83,481 BTC of net inflows.

Ether (ETH) price nosedived below $1,100 in the early hours of June 14 to prices not seen since January 2021. The downside move marks a 78% correction since the $4,870 all-time high on Nov. 10, 2021.

More importantly, Ether has underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) by 33% between May 10 and June 14, 2022, and the last time a similar event happened was mid-2021.

Even though Bitcoin oscillated in a narrow range two weeks before the 0.082 ETH/BTC peak, this period marked the “DeFi Summer” peak when the Ethereum network’s total value locked (TVL) catapulted to $93 billion from $42 billion two months earlier.

What’s behind Ether’s 2021 underperformance?

Before jumping to conclusions, a broader set of data is needed to understand what led to the 31% correction in the ETH/BTC price in 2021. Looking at the number of active addresses is a good place to start.

Data shows steady growth in active addresses, which increased from 595,620 in mid-March to 857,520 in mid-May. So, not only did the TVL growth take investors by surprise, but so did the number of users.

On June 14, discussions of Celsius continued to populate media headlines and June 14's news involved the platform's CEL token accruing massive gains after what appears to have been either an exchange glitch or a short-squeeze. CEL price spiked from $0.18  to $1.55 in one abrupt candle before sinking back to $0.60 within the same one-hour candle.

Currently, analysts are on the fence about the reason for the explosive price breakout. Some cite Celsius repaying a portion of its debts as a reason, while others pinpoint a possible error on the FTX exchange as the reason for what appears to be a short squeeze.

Are debt repayments boosting investor confidence?

Celsius has been scrambling to cover a number of its debts and it is possible that some investors view this as a sign that the platform will be able to survive the current mayhem. 

Twitter analyst Hsaka said that on-chain data shows that the $28 million in Dai (DAI) that was recently deposited into a wallet controlled by Celsius and has since been sent to a separate address, which he identified as a debt repayment address.

Analysts believe that the Celsius's strategy is to lower its liquidation price in the MakerDAO vaults  where it holds funds and ultimately avoid insolvency.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) is showing signs of bottoming out as ETH price bounced off a key support zone. Notably, ETH price is now holding above the key support level of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $1,196. 

The 200-week SMA support seems purely psychological, partly due to its ability to serve as bottom levels in the previous Bitcoin bear markets.

Independent market analyst "Bluntz" argues that the curvy level would also serve as a strong price floor for Ether where accumulation is likely. 

He notes:

"BTC has bottomed 4x at the 200wma dating back to 2014. [Probably] safe to assume it's a pretty strong level. Sure we can wick below it, but there [are] also six days left in the week."

Bitcoin (BTC) crept higher after the June 14 Wall Street open as analysts hoped that long-term support had been preserved.

Hopes for "relief" from FOMC meeting

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it traded above $22,500 at the time of writing, having hit local highs of $23,300 on the day.

The pair had seen a strong bounce after nearing $20,800, with traditional markets likewise recovering after panic set in over United States inflation.

Eyeing where Bitcoin could go next, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators noted that the market had reclaimed the 200-day simple moving average (200 SMA), an important feature of Bitcoin bear markets that acted as support throughout previous price cycles.

Nonetheless, it was "too early to tell" if the 200 SMA would continue to provide an attractive zone, a tweet stated, with the Federal Reserve due to provide inflation cues on June 15.

Crypto traders had a brief opportunity to pause and take stock of where things are on June 16 as the relentless selling that has hammered Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider market over the past week began to relent despite an ongoing sell-off in the traditional markets. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after climbing to a high of $23,000 in the early trading hours on June 16, the price of Bitcoin slowly trended down on diminished trading volume to hit a low at $20,765.

Here’s what several analysts in the market are saying about the outlook for Bitcoin moving forward as crypto traders try to determine if the bottom is in or if there is more downside ahead.

Expect multi-month consolidation at the 200-week MA

A macro perspective of the journey that Bitcoin has taken over the years and how its past can offer insight into the current market setup was discussed by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart highlighting BTC’s behavior near its 200-week moving average (MA).

Rekt Capital said,

In the summer of 2021, the Chinese government banned Bitcoin (BTC) mining and cited the typical concerns of harmful environmental effects and money laundering. Now, the Chinese government is working toward establishing its own digital yuan currency. This raises the question as to whether the original reasoning was merely a Trojan horse.

This ban could easily have been a huge blow to Bitcoin’s momentum. After all, close to 75% of all Bitcoin mining had been conducted in China by late 2019, according to Cambridge Alternative Finance Benchmarks. If the network teetered under the weight of China’s nationwide ban, other governments might have begun to think that Bitcoin could be defeated after all.

China’s ban was Bitcoin’s stress test

For a brief period, the ban worked as intended — by the end of June 2021, the Bitcoin network’s hash rate had dropped to 57.47 exahashes per second (EH/s), down by a few multiples. However, the hash rate rebounded to 193.64 EH/s by December 2021 and by February 2022, it reached an all-time high of 248.11 EH/s.

The entire ordeal was a test that Bitcoin passed with flying colors: Banning Bitcoin mining proved as effective as the Prohibition era was at killing drinking culture in the United States.

In early 2022, the obvious explanation for the hash rate recovery was that miners who had set up shop in China had simply fled to the Western Hemisphere. There was plenty of evidence that seemed to support this hypothesis — primarily that the United States’ share of the global hash rate exploded from 4.1% in late 2019 to 35.4% in August 2021.

The outlook across the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to dim as the sharp downtrend that was initially sparked by the collapse of Terra (LUNA, now LUNC) appears to have claimed the Singapore-based crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) as its next victim. 

As large crypto projects and investment firms begin to collapse on a weekly basis, the prospect of a long, drawn out bear market is a reality investors are beginning to accept. 

Based on a recent Twitter poll conducted by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Plan C,  41.6% of respondents indicated that they thought the Bitcoin (BTC) bottom will fall between the $17,000 to $20,000 range.

Addresses holding at least 1 BTC hits a new high

In the midst of the heightened volatility and rapid price decline for Bitcoin, many would expect to see traders dumping their holdings and fleeing to the sidelines in a bid to maintain their purchasing power.

While it has indeed been the case that falling prices and liquidations have pushed many traders out of the market, low-priced Bitcoin has also attracted some buyers who have patiently been waiting for the right entry point.

Solana (SOL) tumbled on June 16 amid a broader retreat across the top cryptocurrencies, led by the Federal Reserve's 0.75% interest rate hike a day before.

Solana price rebound fizzles

Notably, SOL/USD plunged nearly 17% to $30 a token, wiping out almost all the gains from the day before. The SOL price volatility liquidated almost $10 million worth of contracts in the past 24 hours across multiple crypto exchanges, data from Coinglass shows. 

The latest declines come as an extension to SOL's broader correction, where it dropped by more than 90% after peaking out near $267 in November 2021. SOL also fell to its lowest level since July 2021 near $25.

In addition, a higher interest rate environment and the collapse of high-profile crypto projects like Terra have strengthened SOL's downside prospects. 

SOL paints "ascending triangle"

Solana's pullback move on June 16 began after testing a horizontal trendline resistance near $34 that constitutes what appears to be an "ascending triangle" pattern.

Bitcoin (BTC) ran out of steam near $23,000 on June 16 after the biggest United States key rate hike in nearly thirty years.

Dollar strength wobbles after rate hike news

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching highs of $22,957 on Bitstamp after the Federal Reserve confirmed a 0.75% hike in June — its largest since 1994.

Momentum did not last long, however, and at the time of writing, the pair had shed $2,000 to return to $21,000 at the new Wall Street open.

Popular trader Crypto Tony eyed the U.S. dollar on the back of the Fed's decision, with an about-turn in USD strength key to a possible Bitcoin bottom.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), after spiking to twenty-year highs again after the announcement, began retracing through June 16.