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BTC price stays under $19K amid hopes Q4 will end Bitcoin bear market

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new weekly lows into Sept. 28 as risk asset drawdown continued overnight.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Trader: “First new lows” before Q4 recovery

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD falling to $18,461 on Bitstamp, down almost $2,000 versus the previous day’s high.

The change of direction came in lockstep with stocks, which turned red after initially heading marginally higher at the Wall Street open.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index ultimately finished the day down 0.25% and up 0.25%, respectively.

Crypto, however, failed to recoup its losses, and while hopes were for Q4 to bring about a more solid recovery, traders were betting on the pain continuing first.

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Bitcoin price fails to hold $20K again, but there is a silver lining

Markets briefly flashed green on Sept. 27 as equities markets bounced back from Sept. 26’s pullback, bringing the Bitcoin (BTC) price back to the long-term descending trendline resistance, which currently resides at $20,100. 

Unfortunately for bulls, the positive momentum for stocks and cryptocurrencies rapidly eroded and Bitcoin price gave up a majority of the intraday gains as it slipped back below $19,000.

As has been the case since March 25, BTC price has been unable to kick above the resistance for more than a few hours and the Sept. 27 breakdown at the trendline continues the trend of successive bear flags that see a continuation to the downside.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

According to Arcane Research, Bitcoin’s tight rally above $20,000 is relatively insignificant, given that futures premiums are still low and it “contributes little to improving the market risk appetite.”

BTC perpetual contract funding rate versus Bitcoin price. Source: Arcane Research

Additional data from Arcane Research shows funding rates flipping neutral for the first time since Sept. 13, but generally, traders are reluctant to add longs, given the concerns over macro challenges and the continuous threat of unfriendly crypto regulation.

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Bitcoin price loses $20K as trader warns US dollar 'not quite topped out'

Bitcoin (BTC) crossed under $20,000 after the Sept. 27 Wall Street open as United States equities inched higher.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

U.S. dollar has room to run — trader

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed the $20,000 mark barely remaining as tentative support on the day.

BTC/USD had managed local highs of $20,344 on Bitstamp overnight, while retracing U.S. dollar strength gave modest relief to risk assets across the board.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index had been up 0.4% and 0.65%, respectively, after two hours’ trading, but subsequently reversed.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was down 0.15% on the day, back below the 114 mark but still near its highest since mid-2002.

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Bitcoin, British Pound trading volume soars 1150% as UK's currency risks dollar parity

Bitcoin (BTC) will see increased interest from the United Kingdom “very quickly” as fiat currency volatility makes BTC look like a stablecoin.

That was the conclusion from Gabor Gurbacs, strategy adviser at investment giant VanEck, one of many flagging Bitcoin’s appeal over the pound this week.

UK becomes fertile ground for Bitcoin "orange pill"

As the U.S. dollar runs rampant, its strength has come at the expense of trading partner currencies, notably the euro, pound and Japanese yen.

The pound’s disintegration gathered pace this week, however, as GBP/USD hit its lowest on record at nearly $1.03.

With the United Kingdom’s central bank, the Bank of England, avoiding interventions so far, nerves are showing as purchasing power takes a double hit from currency weakness and inflation at forty-year highs.

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Ethereum fork token ETHPoW climbs 150% after smart contract hack — A fakeout rally?

ETHW has logged a significant price rebound despite its blockchain network, ETHPoW, suffering a smart contract hack in the first week after its launch.

Bull trap risks surround ETHW market

ETHW rebounded more than 150% eight days after the attack and traded for around $10.30 on Sept. 27.

Fundamentally, this suggests that traders ignored the hack and trusted ETHPoW's long-term viability as a blockchain project.

But from a technical perspective, the ETHW price rally has accompanied weaker trading volumes. In other words, fewer traders have been involved in the pumping of the ETHPoW token's price in the past eight days, as the Bitfinex exchange data shows in the chart below.

ETHW/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The growing divergence between ETHW's rising prices and falling trading volumes suggests that traders' interest in the ETHPoW token has been dwindling. In other words, ETHW's price risks a sharp correction in the coming days.

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More ancient Bitcoin leaves its wallet after 10-year hibernation

Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing some of its oldest coins come back to life after a decade lying dormant.

The latest on-chain data reveals that two-year BTC price lows have reawakened the most ancient part of the supply.

"Very old" Bitcoin come back to life

As BTC/USD returns to levels not seen since Q4 2020, questions are arising over how long-term holders will respond.

The on-chain picture is mixed — the dormant supply is aging, but certain old hands are showing signs of wanting to sell at current prices.

The latest piece of the puzzle comes in the form of BTC returning to circulation after remaining in the same wallet for at least ten years.

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Bitcoin gains 5% to reclaim $20K, eyes first 'green' September since 2016

Bitcoin (BTC) delivered long-anticipated volatility on Sep. 27 as a squeeze higher resulted in a push beyond $20,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price 9-day highs greet traders

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it added over 7% after the Sep. 26 close.

Local highs of $20,344 appeared on Bitstamp before the pair began consolidating at around $20,200.

The move naturally did not go unnoticed by in trading circles, but opinions differed over the outcome, amid warnings that the whole episode may end up trapping overoptimistic traders taking late long positions.

“No [rejection] yet, but soon. Expecting higher for now,” popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto summarized, sticking by a theory which demanded new lower lows than the sub-$19,000 levels seen over the past week.

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What will happen to Bitcoin and Ethereum if traditional markets break?

Michael J. Burry, the financial wizard who was portrayed in the movie "The Big Short", is known for predicting crises. For instance, his investment fund made billions from the 2008 housing crash, and Burry liquidated almost all his entire portfolio during the 2Q of 2022.

Given that no one seems to know whether traditional markets will bounce before entering a further recessive environment, it might be a good time to consider investing in cryptocurrencies. Below are some examples on how experienced investors sometimes miss incredible rallies.

In May 2017, Burry said people should expect a "global financial meltdown" and World War 3. Instead, the S&P 500 rallied 20% over the following 9 months. A couple of years later, the index peaked in December 2021, at a level that was more than 100% above Burry’s suggested short entry price.

In December 2020, Burry said that Tesla's stock price was "ridiculous" as part of his justification for opening his short position. A 47% rally happened in the 35 days following that remark and Tesla shares peaked 10 months later after a 105% total gain from Tesla’s supposedly "ridiculous" price.

Indicators point to a major recession, but exactly when remains unknown

Without mistake, traders should not dismiss the fact that the U.S. dollar index has rallied strongly against other major global currencies to reach its highest level in 20 years. This shows that investors are desperately seeking shelter in cash positions, exiting stock markets, foreign currencies and corporate debt.

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Is it Bitcoin’s time to shine? British pound drops to all-time low against the dollar

On Sept. 26, the British pound hit a record low against the U.S. dollar following the announcement of tax cuts and further debt increases to curb the impact of a possible economic recession. The volatility simply reflects investors' doubts about the government's capacity to withstand the growing costs of living across the region.

The U.S. dollar has been the clear winner as investors seek shelter in the largest global economy, but the British pound's weakness could be a net positive for Bitcoin. The GBP, or British pound, is the world's oldest currency still in use and it has been in continuous use since its inception.

Fiat currencies are a 52-year old experiment

The British pound, as we currently know, started its journey in 1971 after its convertibility with gold or theequivalent was effectively terminated. Since then, the currency issued by the Bank of England has not had a fixed valuation.

Inflation has been the centerpiece of economic debates all throughout 2022 after central banks added liquidity to the markets over the previous two years to stimulate economies. As a result, in August 2022, the United Kingdom saw a 9.9% increase in consumer prices versus the previous year.

On Sept. 22, the government announced an unprecedented tax cut, the highest since 1972, causing the British pound to reach an intraday low of $1.038 versus the U.S. dollar on Sept. 26. Analysts concluded that government bond issuance would increase to pay for the lesser tax, and interest rates would have to be aggressively increased.

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Traders brace for Bitcoin price volatility as DXY 2022 gains near 20%

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility edged higher during Sept. 26 as the Wall Street open avoided significant losses.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Monthly close tipped to shake up BTC price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $19,000 on the day, with hourly candles of 1.5%–2% not uncommon.

The pair was expected to break out of its narrow trading range in the short term, having consolidated since Sept. 22.

For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, a tap of the area at the top of the range should signal acontinuation higher.

“Theory still stands for Bitcoin,” he told Twitter followers on the day.

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Cardano bulls run out of steam after Vasil hard fork — 40% ADA price crash in play

Cardano's (ADA) long-awaited Vasil update went live on Sept. 22, which promises to make its blockchain more scalable and cheaper than before. However, this has failed to bring bullish momentum to the ADA market.

Sell-the-news hampers Cardano

ADA's price has dropped by approximately 9.5% since the update and was changing hands for $0.43 on Sept. 26. The ADA/USD pair's drop was accompanied by a rejection candlestick on its daily price chart, confirmed by a brief rally to $0.48 on the day of the fork and a sharp correction thereafter.

ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

ADA bulls' muted reaction to the successful Vasil update is similar to what transpired across the Ether (ETH) market after Ethereum's Merge.

In other words, a buy the rumor, sell the news event, resembling most of Cardano's previous hard forks, which have a history of preceding ADA price crashes, as shown below.

ADA/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

In addition, macro risks led by a very hawkish Federal Reserve also weighed down ADA's bullish expectations post-Vasil.

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3 reasons why USDC stablecoin dropping below $50B market cap is Tether's gain

The market capitalization of USD Coin (USDC), a stablecoin issued by U.S.-based payment tech firm Circle, has dropped below $50 billion for the first time since January 2022.

On the weekly chart, USDC's market cap, which reflects the number of U.S. dollar-backed tokens in circulation, fell to $49.39 billion on Sept. 26, down almost 12% from its record high of $55.88 billion, established merely three months ago. 

USDC versus USDT weekly market cap chart. Source: TradingView

In contrast, the market cap of Tether (USDT), which risked losing its top stablecoin position to USDC in May, crossed above $68 billion on Sept. 26, albeit still down 17.4% from its record high of $82.33 billion in May 2022.

The divergence between USDT and USDC shows investors' renewed preference for the former. Let's take a look at the factors boosting Tether as the top stablecoin.

Binance's USDC suspension

Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, announced earlier in September that it would convert its users' USDC balances for its own stablecoin, Binance USD (BUSD). The conversion will commence on Sept. 29 and does not apply to USDT.

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5 years of the ‘Top 10 Cryptos’ experiment and the lessons learned

When Redditor Joe Greene started the Top 10 Cryptos experiment in 2018, he bought $1,000 of Dash, NEM and Iota, among others, only to watch it crash to $150. But five years on, his experiment has paid off big time.

The rules: Buy $100 of each of the top 10 cryptocurrencies on Jan. 1, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

Every January since 2018, Greene has reviewed a list of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap from his tropical office in Bali. He puts $100 of his own money into each, tracks the performance every four months or so, and publishes the findings on his website and on Reddit.

When he began, crypto indexes were few and far between, so there wasn’t an easy alternative. Having invested in stocks for years before moving into crypto, Greene predicted that chasing tokens on a hot streak was dangerous — unless done consistently — and this was indeed proven so by his experiment with the Top Ten Crypto Index Funds. 

Bitcoin 2017

Like almost everyone else that year, Greene was mesmerized by the sudden rise of Bitcoin during the 2017 bull market. “I remember looking to buy a rig to do some mining, but it turns out they were all sold out. So, I thought, ‘Whatever, I’ll just go out and buy some coins instead,’” he tells Magazine. A combination of the underlying technology, the financial elements and the future direction of the asset class kept Greene in the sector. He has been blogging with the project ever since. 

Top Ten Cryptos bought in 2018 still haven’t recovered to their all-time highs
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‘The bond market bubble has burst’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week staring down a wild macro environment after sealing its lowest weekly close in nearly two years.

As risk assets across the global economy take a hammering and the United States dollar surges, the largest cryptocurrency is on a limp footing.

September, having started out on the bulls’ side, is now living up to its informal crypto market nickname, “Septembear,” and BTC/USD is currently down 6.2% since the start of the month.

The bad news keeps coming for hodlers, who are clinging to dormant coins in increasing numbers as the dollar runs rampant and mainstream appetite to diversify into riskier plays continues to evaporate.

With macro set to remain the key focus for everyone this week, Cointelegraph takes a look at what might lie in store for BTC price action.

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5 altcoins that could turn bullish if Bitcoin price stabilizes

The major United States stock market indices continued their decline last week as worsening macroeconomic conditions increased concerns of a global recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level in 2022 and major indices recorded their fifth weekly close in the past six weeks.

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has only declined marginally this week, it risks closing at the lowest level since 2020. While a new multi-year weekly close is a negative sign, sellers will have to sustain the lower levels or else it may turn out to be a bear trap. The price action of the next few days is likely to witness heightened volatility as both the bulls and the bears battle it out for supremacy.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Several investors miss opportunities to buy during sharp corrections because they try to catch the bottom. Traders should rather focus on the projects they like and accumulate the coins in a phased manner lasting a few weeks or months. All coins do not bottom at the same time, hence it is better to focus on individual cryptocurrencies that show strength.

While Bitcoin is nearing its yearly lows, certain altcoins are holding up well. Let’s look at the charts of five cryptocurrencies that look interesting in the near term.

BTC/USDT

The Bitcoin bulls have successfully defended the $18,626 to $17,622 support zone in the past few days but they continue to face strong selling at the 20-day exponential moving average ($19,720). This suggests that bears continue to sell on minor rallies.

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Bitcoin risks worst weekly close since 2020 as BTC price dices with $19K

Bitcoin (BTC) headed for its lowest weekly close since 2020 on Sep. 25 as a week of macro turmoil took its toll.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Trader prepares for "important week" for BTC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading near $19,000 with hours left to run on the weekly candle.

While only down $400 since the week began, the pair offered traders little optimism amid fears that the coming days would continue the bleedout across risk assets.

“The whole week traded within the monday range. Weekly close gonna be bearish, looking like a pin bar,” popular trading account Crypto Yoddha told Twitter followers in a summary post.

“Also consolidating at the range low. So need a bounce first before taking a position. Next week is gonna be important. (Q3 close + Monthly close).”

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Wintermute suffers $160M attack, Kraken CEO departs and US bill aims to ban algo stablecoins: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 18-24

Coming every Saturday, Hodler’s Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.

Top Stories This Week

 

Kraken’s Jesse Powell will step down as CEO, stay on as board chair

After more than a decade heading up crypto exchange Kraken as CEO, Jesse Powell has decided to pass the torch to the company’s chief operating officer, Dave Ripley. Powell is not done with Kraken, however. He will become chair of the board for the organization. “It’s just gotten to be more draining on me, less fun,” Powell said, as quoted in by Bloomberg. Ripley joined Kraken as chief operating officer in 2016.

 

South Korean ministry recommends enactment of special Metaverse laws

In line with other advances South Korea has taken to embrace the digital world, the country wants to create new laws regarding the Metaverse, according to plans from the Ministry of Science and ICT. The ministry wants proper laws in place for the Metaverse, but thinks it’s unwise to form-fit current regulations to new technology. Previous news saw South Korea invest $200 million toward metaverse development in the country.


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The biggest Bitcoin fund just hit a record -35% discount — A warning for BTC price?

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a cryptocurrency fund that currently holds 3.12% of the total Bitcoin (BTC) supply, or over 640,000 BTC, is trading at a record discount compared to the value of its underlying assets.

Institutional interest in Grayscale dries up

On Sep. 23, the $12.55 billion closed-end trust was trading at a 35.18% discount, according to the latest data.

GBTC discount versus spot BTC/USD price. Source: YCharts

To investors, GBTC has long served as a great alternative to gain exposure in the Bitcoin market despite its 2% annual management fee. This is primarily because GBTC is easier to hold for institutional investors because it can be managed via a brokerage account. 

For most of its existence, GBTC traded at a hefty premium to spot Bitcoin prices. But It started trading at a discount after the debut of the first North American Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Canada in February 2021.

Unlike an ETF, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust does not have a redemption mechanism. In other words, GBTC shares cannot be destroyed or created based on fluctuating demand, which explains its heavily discounted prices compared to spot Bitcoin.

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XRP hits 13-month high versus Bitcoin with 35% daily surge — But is a correction inevitable?

XRP price posted a sharp rally against Bitcoin (BTC) on continued optimism about a potential settlement between Ripple, a San Francisco-based blockchain payment firm, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Settlement rumors fuel XRP price boom 

On Sept. 23, the XRP/BTC pair surged to 0.00002877 — its best level in 13 months — from 0.00002132, a 35% price rally versus Bitcoin in one day. Meanwhile, the same timeframe saw XRP rising as much as 42% against the U.S. dollar.

XRP/BTC and XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The big price leaps in the XRP market started appearing after Ripple and SEC filed motions for a summary judgment with the court on Sept. 12 regarding their ongoing legal battle over allegations that Ripple hcommitted securities fraud.

In other words, Ripple and SEC agreed that the court should use the available evidence to reach a verdict on whether the blockchain firm illegally raised funds by selling XRP by December 2022, and thus avoid a trial. 

XRP's price has boomed approximately 75% and 60% versus Bitcoin and the dollar, respectively, since Ripple's court filing, fueled by optimism of a possible win for Ripple.

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Bitcoin’s 60% year-to-date correction looks bad, but many stocks have dropped by even more

Bitcoin’s (BTC) and Ether’s (ETH) agonizing 60% and 66% respective drops in price are drawing a lot of criticism from crypto critics and perhaps this is deserved, but there are also plenty of stocks with similar, if not worse, performances. 

The sharp volatility witnessed in crypto prices is partially driven by major centralized yield and lending platforms becoming insolvent, Three Arrows Capital’s bankruptcy and a handful of exchanges and mining pools facing liquidity issues.

For cryptocurrencies, 2022 has definitely not been a good year, and even Tesla sold 75% of its Bitcoin holdings in Q2 at a loss. The quasi-trillion dollar company still holds a $218 million position, but the news certainly did not help investors’ perception of Bitcoin’s corporate adoption.

Cryptocurrencies are not the only assets impacted by central banks withdrawing stimulus measures and increasing interest rates. A handful of multi-billion dollar companies around the globe have also suffered, with losses that surpass 85% in 2022 alone.

Cash hungry companies saw steep declines in their stock price

Unlike cryptocurrencies, companies, especially those listed on stock markets, rely on financing — whether the cash is used for mergers and acquisitions or day-to-day operations. That is why interest rates set by central banks dramatically impact debt-intensive sectors such as energy, auto sales and technology.

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