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Bitcoin (BTC) lost a key bear market trendline last week as it shed almost 12%, but other chart data offers a silver lining for bulls.

As noted by popular Twitter user Dave the wave on Aug. 24, long-term moving averages (MAs) are about to repeat classic bullish behavior.

Analyst: Bulls could be about to "do well"

BTC/USD disappointed over the weekend as it put in lows not seen since the end of July. Since then, $21,000 has offered only weak support, and fears abound that new lows are coming.

One of the casualties of the downturn was the 200-week MA, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, a level which had flipped from resistance to support the month prior.

Now back overhead and unchallenged by rebounds this week, the 200-week MA offers a verdict on the current lack of strength in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 16.5% correction between Aug. 15 and Aug. 19 as it tested the $20,800 support. While the drop is startling, in reality a $4,050 price difference is relatively insignificant, especially when one accounts for Bitcoin's 72% annualized volatility.

Currently, the S&P 500’s volatility stands at 31%, which is significantly lower, yet the index traded down 9.1% between June 8 and June 13. So, comparatively speaking, the index of major U.S. listed companies faced a more abrupt movement adjusted for the historical risk metric.

At the start of this week, crypto investors' sentiment worsened after weaker conditions in Chinese real estate markets forced the central bank to reduce its five-year loan prime rate on Aug. 21. Moreover, a Goldman Sachs investment bank strategist stated that inflationary pressure would force the U.S. Federal Reserve to further tighten the economy, which negatively impacts the S&P 500.

Regardless of the correlation between stocks and Bitcoin, which is currently running at 80/100, investors tend to seek shelter in the U.S. dollar and inflation-protected bonds when they fear a crisis or market crash. This movement is known as a "flight to quality" and tends to add selling pressure on all risk markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Despite the bears' best efforts, Bitcoin has not been able to break below the $20,800 support. This movement explains why the $1 billion Bitcoin monthly options expiry on Aug. 26 could benefit bulls despite the recent 16.5% loss in 5 days.

Bitcoin (BTC) price remains pinned below $22,000 as the lingering impact of the Aug. 19 sell-off at $25,200 continues to be felt across the market. 

According to analysts from on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, BTC’s tap at the $25,000 level was followed by “distribution” as profit-takers and short-term holders sold as price encountered a trendline resistance following a 23-consecutive-day uptrend that saw BTC trading above it’s realized price ($21,700).

The firm also noted that the “total inflows and outflows to all exchanges” metric shows exchange flows at multi-year lows and back to “late-2020 levels,” which reflects a “general lack of speculative interest.”

From a higher-time frame perspective, Bitcoin’s current price action is simply a continuation of its near three-month-long chop in the $18,500 to $22,000 range, but the real damper on sentiment is persistent non-crypto-related concerns in the United States and global economy.

On August 25, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins and from this, the public will learn more about the Federal Reserve’s perspective on the U.S. economy, its plans for future interest rate hikes, whether the inflation target remains at 2% and if the Fed thinks the U.S and global economy are in a recession. Anticipation over the symposium has clearly made investors skittish and these frayed nerves are visible in the S&P 500, DJI and crypto markets this week.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed for multi-day highs after the Aug. 23 Wall Street open as United States economic data tripped up the dollar.

Dollar suffers as data shows incomes "squeezed"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it eyed $21,700 at the time of writing, near resistance in place since last week’s near-12% drop.

The pair gained momentum as the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) prints for August showed a drop versus the month prior, hitting the lowest levels since May 2020 at the height of the first round of COVID-19 lockdowns.

“The S&P Global Flash US Services Business Activity Index posted at 44.1 in August, down from 47.3 in July, to indicate a further reduction in overall services activity,” a press release from curator S&P Global stated.

“The decrease in business activity was sharp overall and the fastest since May 2020. Service providers noted that hikes in interest rates and inflation dampened customer spending as disposable incomes were squeezed.”

Warren Buffett has put most of Berkshire Hathaway's cash in short-term U.S. Treasury bills now that they offer as much as 3.27% in yields. But while the news does not concern Bitcoin (BTC) directly, it may still be a clue to the downside potential for BTC price in the near term.

Berkshire Hathaway seeks safety in T-bills

Treasury bills, or T-Bills, are U.S. government-backed securities that mature in less than a year. Investors prefer them over money-market funds and certificates of deposits (COD) because of their tax benefits.

Related: Stablecoin issuers hold more US debt than Berkshire Hathaway: Report

Berkshire's net cash position was $105 billion as of June 30, out of which $75 billion, or 60%, was held in T-bills, up from $58.53 billion at the beginning of 2022 out of its $144 billion total cash reserves.

The move is likely a response to bond yields jumping massively since August 2021 in the wake of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies aimed at curbing inflation, which was running at 8.4% in July. 

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers are feeling the squeeze this week as repeated tests of lower levels spark increasing losses.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows more wallets are in the red as of Aug. 23 than at any time in the past month.

Over 17.5 million wallets in the red

BTC/USD has seen five trips below $21,000 since the end of Aug. 19, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, and the quest for support is already making plenty of traders nervous.

Meanwhile, those who bought in recent weeks are underwater to varying degrees, as Bitcoin is at its lowest since the last week of July.

The extent to which investors added or created positions on the way to this month’s $25,200 highs is now becoming clearer — more BTC addresses are at an overall loss than at any time since July 23.

After the rising wedge formation was broken on Aug. 17, the total crypto market capitalization quickly dropped to $1 trillion and the bulls' dream of recouping the $1.2 trillion support, last seen on June 10, became even more distant. 

The worsening conditions are not exclusive to crypto markets. The price of WTI oil ceded 3.6% on Aug. 22, down 28% from the $122 peak seen on June 8. The United StatesTreasuries 5-year yield, which bottomed on Aug. 1 at 2.61%, reverted the trend and is now trading at 3.16%. These are all signs that investors are feeling less confident about the central bank's policies of requesting more money to hold those debt instruments.

Recently, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin stated that the risk-reward for the S&P 500 is skewed to the downside after a 17% rally since mid-June. According to a client note written by Kostin, inflation surprises to the upside would require the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten the economy more aggressively, negatively impacting valuations.

Meanwhile, extended lockdowns supposedly aimed at containing the spread of COVID-19 in China and property debt problems caused the PBOC led the central bank to reduce its five-year loan prime rate to 4.30% from 4.45% on Aug. 21. Curiously, the movement happened a week after the Chinese central bank lowered the interest rates in a surprise move.

Crypto investor sentiment is at the edge of ‘neutral-to-bearish’

The risk-off attitude brought by surging inflation led investors to expect additional interest rate hikes, which will, in turn, diminish investors' appetite for growth stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies. As a result, traders will likely seek shelter in the U.S. dollar and inflation-protected bonds during periods of uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) drifted near $21,000 on the Aug. 22 Wall Street open as the new week began without a rebound.

European commodity surge hammers euro

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD failing to summon a comeback after last week’s 11.6% losses.

The pair put in fresh multi-week lows under $20,800 over the weekend, subsequently staging a modest relief bounce to circle $21,200 at the time of writing.

Anxiousness over European markets and the upcoming United States Federal Reserve Jackson Hole symposium contributed to a downbeat mood on risk assets. The S&P 500 lost 1.8% within two hours of opening, while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 2.2%.

In Europe, gas and electricity prices surged again over fears that supplies from Russia could be throttled harder and sooner than expected.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week fresh from a new multi-week low amid a return of highly nervous sentiment.

After dipping below $21,000 over the weekend, the largest cryptocurrency is consolidating around 10% lower than a week ago, and the fear across crypto markets is clearly visible.

As some call for new lows and others warns of a difficult few months ahead, there is plenty for bulls to contend with on both long and short timeframes

The United States Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium is due this week, while September is already due to form something of a showdown when it comes to inflation and associated macro price triggers.

That could mean fresh volatility across risk assets both during and prior, something weary investors will no doubt not welcome after last week's escapades on BTC/USD.

The S&P 500 ended its four-week-long recovery last week after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting hinted that the central bank’s rate hikes will continue until inflation is under control. Members of the Fed said there was no evidence that inflation pressures appear be easing.

Another dampener was the statement by St. Louis Fed president James Bullard who said that he would support a 75 basis point rate hike in September’s Fed policy meeting. This reduced hopes that the era of aggressive rate hikes may be over.

Weakening sentiment pulled the S&P 500 lower by 1.29% for the week. Continuing its close correlation with the S&P 500, Bitcoin (BTC) also witnessed a sharp decline on Aug. 19 and is likely to end the week with steep losses.

Will bulls use the dips to accumulate at lower levels? If they do, let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may attract buyers because of their bullish setups.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin slipped below the 20-day exponential moving average ($22,864) on Aug. 17 and then below the 50-day simple moving average ($22,318) on Aug. 19. The bulls are attempting to arrest the decline at the support line of the ascending channel.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered modestly on Aug. 20 but remained on course to log its worst weekly performance in the last two months.

Bitcoin hash ribbons flash bottom signal

On the daily chart, BTC's price climbed 2.58% to $21,372 per token but was still down by nearly 14.5% week-to-date, its worst weekly returns since mid August. Nonetheless, some on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin's correction phase could be coming to an end.

That includes Hash Ribbons, a metric that tracks Bitcoin's hash rate to determine whether miners are in accumulation or capitulation mode. As of Aug. 20, the metric is showing that the miners' capitulation is over for the first time since August 2021, which could result in the price momentum switching from negative to positive.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin has been unable to shrug off a flurry of prevailing negative indicators, ranging from negative technical setups to its continued exposure to macro risks. Therefore, despite optimistic on-chain metrics, a bearish continuation cannot be ruled out. 

Here are three reasons why Bitcoin's market bottom may not be in yet.

On Friday, August 19, the total crypto market capitalization dropped by 9.1%, but more importantly, the all-important $1 trillion psychological support was tapped. The market's latest venture below this just three weeks ago, meaning investors were pretty confident that the $780 billion total market-cap low on June 18 was a mere distant memory.

Regulatory uncertainty increased on Aug. 17 after the United States House Committee on Energy and Commerce announced that they were "deeply concerned" that proof-of-work mining could increase demand for fossil fuels. As a result, U.S. lawmakers requested the crypto mining companies to provide information on energy consumption and average costs.

Typically, sell-offs have a greater impact on cryptocurrencies outside of the top 5 assets by market capitalization, but today’s correction presented losses ranging from 7% to 14% across the board. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 9.7% loss as it tested $21,260 and Ether (ETH) presented a 10.6% drop at its $1,675 intraday low.

Some analysts might suggest that harsh daily corrections like the one seen today is a norm rather than an exception considering the asset’s 67% annualized volatility. Case in point, today’s intraday drop in the total market capitalization exceeded 9% in 19 days over the past 365, but some aggravants are causing this current correction to stand out.

The BTC Futures premium vanished

The fixed-month futures contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets because sellers demand more money to withhold settlement for longer. Technically known as "contango," this situation is not exclusive to crypto assets.

Many owners of precious Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) and CryptoPunks NFTs, who used them as collateral to take out loans in Ether (ETH), have failed to repay their debts. The situation could lead up to the NFT sector's first massive liquidation event.

BAYC "death spiral" incoming?

DoubleQ, the founder of web3 launchpad Double Studio, says lending service BendDAO could liquidate up to $55 million worth of NFTs to recover its loans, fearing the so-called "health factor" of these debts could fall below 1.

Notably, an NFT collection's floor price is important in determining the health factor. BendDAO offers 30%-40% of the NFT's floor price as loans. But the protocol sells the NFT if its floor price falls too close to the amount borrowed—a liquidation threshold, as explained below.

Meanwhile, the floor price of BAYC has fallen from 153.7 ETH in May to 69.69 ETH in August—a nearly 55% plunge in three months. Simultaneously, the health factor of at least 20 loans with BAYC as collateral has fallen to 1.1 as of Aug. 19, data on BendDAO shows.

Borrowers have 48 hours to repay the loan or their NFT collateral will be liquidated. According to doubleQ, these liquidations could lead to "a death spiral for the BAYC ecosystem and NFT market as a whole," given BendDAO's exposure to other NFT projects, including CryptoPunks and Doodles.

Bitcoin (BTC) is staging a repeat of price action from May with its latest drop, the latest data shows.

As the dust settles on a 6% comedown for BTC/USD, analysis argues that its trip to $25,000 was never meant to last.

Realized price comes back to haunt the BTC chart

After taking some by surprise with its magnitude, the latest snap losses for BTC price action are still playing out.

After falling from $23,800 to as low as $21,400 in a single hour, the largest cryptocurrency is now attempting to establish support near its realized price.

At just below $22,000, realized price refers to the sum total at which the entire BTC supply last moved.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell rapidly on Aug. 19 as the culmination of a week’s sideways action ended in disappointment for bulls.

New lows "just a matter of time

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it dropped 6.2% in a single hourly candle.

Reacting, traders hoped that a rebound could allow for consolidation higher than current spot price levels, which were under $22,000 at the time of writing.

“Well, hopefully that was liquidity seeking, otherwise it's over,” a gloomy Crypto Chase told Twitter followers.

Fellow account Il Capo of Crypto, who had long forecast a return to lower levels, was resigned to new lows being “just a matter of time.”

After an impressive 73% rally between July 13 and Aug. 13, Avalanche (AVAX) has faced a 16% rejection from the $30.30 resistance level. Some analysts will try to pin the correction as a "technical adjustment," but the network’s deposits and decentralized applications reflect worsening conditions.

To date, Avalanche remains 83% below its November 2021 all-time high at $148. More data than technical analysis can be analyzed to explain the 16% price drop, so let’s take a look at the network’s use in terms of deposits and users.

The decentralized application (DApp) platform is still a top-15 contender with a $7.2 billion market capitalization. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL), another proof-of-work (PoW) layer-1 platform, holds a $14.2 billion market cap, which is nearly twice as large as Avalanche's.

Avalanche’s TVL dropped 40% in two months

Some analysts tend to give too much weight to the total value locked (TVL) metic and although this might hold relevance for the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry, it is seldom required for nonfungible token (NFT) minting, digital item marketplaces, crypto games, gambling and social applications.

Using the layer-2 solution Polygon (MATIC) as a proxy, it currently holds a $2.2 billion TVL while MATIC’s market cap stands at $7.2 billion; thus, a 3.3x MCap/TVL ratio. Curiously, the same ratio applies to Avalanche, which currently holds a similar $2.2 billion TVL and $7.2 billion capitalization.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $25,000 on Aug. 15, but the excitement lasted less than an hour and was followed by a 5% retrace in the next five hours. The resistance level proved to be tougher than expected but may have given bulls false hope for the upcoming $335 million weekly options expiry.

Investors’ fleeting optimism reverted to a sellers' market on Aug. 17 after BTC dumped and tested the $23,300 support. The negative move took place hours before the release of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) minutes from its July meeting. Investors expect some insights on whether the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates.

The negative newsflow accelerated on Aug. 16 after a federal court in the United States authorized the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to force cryptocurrency broker SFOX to reveal the transactions and identities of customers who are U.S. taxpayers. The same strategy was used to obtain information from Circle, Coinbase and Kraken between 2018 and 2021.

This movement explains why betting on Bitcoin price above $25,000 on Aug. 19 seemed like a sure thing a couple of days ago, and this would have incentivized bullish bets.

Bears didn't expect BTC to move above $24,000

The open interest for the Aug. 19 options expiry is $335 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were overly-optimistic. These traders might have been fooled by the short-lived dump to $22,700 on Aug. 10 because their bets for Aug's options expiry extend down to $15,000.