Decentral Block Post

Ethereum (ETH) price is struggling to overcome resistance at $1,600 and this is the altcoin’s third attempt since September 2022. Some would say the 33% year-to-date rally could be interpreted as a failed opportunity to breach the $200 billion market capitalization mark. 

If Ethereum price were to break above $1,600, it would return Ether to a top-60 global tradable asset, surpassing giant multinational companies like Nike (NKE), Novartis (NVS), Cisco (CSCO) and Toyota (TM).

Unfortunately, at least for bullish traders, derivatives markets are not hinting that Ether will finally break the $1,600 resistance — at least, not until the U.S. Federal Reserve reverses its course of tightening the economy.

Bulls' frustrations can partially be explained by Silvergate Bank's $1 billion net loss in the latest quarter. The crypto-friendly bank laid off roughly 40% of its workforce on Jan. 5 and it now faces a class-action lawsuit over its FTX and Alameda Research dealings. The suit alleges that Silvergate aided and abetted FTX's fraudulent activities and the exchanges' breaches of fiduciary duty.

The negative newsflow continued on Jan. 17, as Japan's deputy director-general of the Financial Services Agency's Strategy Development and Management Bureau, Mamoru Yanase, argued that the crypto sector should face the same regulation as traditional banks and brokerages.

Shiba Inu is hoping to become more than just a Dogecoin-inspired meme cryptocurrency as it comes closer to launching its layer-2 network called Shibarium. Meanwhile, the SHIB token has emerged as one of the best-performers so far in 2023.

SHIB price jumps 60% in 2023

SHIB's price has rallied nearly 60% year-to-date (YTD) to $0.00001294, its highest since early November 2022.

The gains started appearing mainly due to favorable macro conditions that prompted similar rallies elsewhere in the crypto market. Nonetheless, the Shiba Inu price rally picked up momentum as investors assessed its announcement of the upcoming beta release of Shibarium.

Shibarium is reportedly a layer-2 network that would run atop the Ethereum blockchain mainnet. In other words, it would enable developers to build and launch decentralized applications (dapps) while aiming for lower transactional costs and improved network scalability.

Shiba Inu price is now up 25% since Jan. 16 when the Shiba Inu team teased its audience with the Shibarium launch announcement.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), could grow by 35% versus Bitcoin (BTC) this year to hit 0.1 BTC for the first time since 2018 as it forms a classic bullish continuation pattern.

Ethereum price must first break key resistance

Dubbed an ascending triangle, the pattern forms when the price fluctuates inside a range defined by rising trendline support and horizontal trendline resistance. It typically resolves after the price breaks out in the direction of its previous trend.

On a weekly chart, the ETH/BTC pair has been painting an ascending pattern since May 2021. The Ethereum token eyes a breakout above the pattern's horizontal trendline resistance near 0.0776 BTC. Breaking this level could then see the price rally by as much as the triangle's maximum height. 

In other words, the ETH/BTC pair could reach the next big resistance level at 0.1 BTC in 2023, or 35% from the current price levels.

Nonetheless, it is important to mention that ETH/BTC has attempted to break above the triangle's resistance trendline eight times since May 2021. The attempts included two major  breakouts in November 2021 and September 2022, which saw the pair rallying 14% and 9%, respectively.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a potentially volatile day on Jan. 18, with multiple macro triggers beginning to unsettle the outlook.

BoJ refuses to hike

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD holding firm above $21,000 on the day.

The pair remained cool amid news from Japan, where the central bank — the Bank of Japan (BoJ) — had decided to keep an ultra-easy policy in place, defying expectations of an interest rate hike.

In doing so, both the Japanese yen and the United States dollar took a hit in the latest chapter of a saga closely watched by crypto commentators.

“In keeping its key rate and yield curve control policy unchanged at today’s meeting, the Bank of Japan probably wanted to convey a message to the market; don’t fight the BoJ,“ ING Bank said in a dedicated response piece.

The beginning of 2023 has provided Bitcoin (BTC) with bullish indicators and the rally to a year-to-date high at $21,647 has crypto traders hopeful that the worst part of the bear market has ended. The surge effect of BTC’s bullish price action is also carrying over to Ether (ETH) and Bitcoin mining stocks.

The reduction in Bitcoin Fear and Greed index to neutral is possibly driven by volume increases, Bitcoin on-chain data and BTC price decoupling from equities markets. While not all analysts believe a market bottom is in, let’s dive into the data.

Trading volume and volatility return

Bitcoin’s price spike has been accompanied by massive growth in trading volume. Over the last week, BTC volume has more than doubled, reaching $10.8 billion, a 114% increase over sevendays.

Increased trading typically correlates to an increase in volatility. While the current 2.4% seven-day volatility levels are still below the 2022 seven-day average of 3.1%, Bitcoin has remained consistent during the 2023 rally.

Centralized exchanges (CEX) have been struggling with low trading volume, meaning lower fees for the business, inducing layoffs. The increase in volume for all exchanges is likely welcomed news.

After 66 agonizing days, Bitcoin (BTC) price finally broke above the $20,000 psychological resistance on Jan. 14. At the same time, the current $400 billion market capitalization gives BTC a position in the top-20 global tradable assets, surpassing giants like Walmart (WMT), Mastercard (MA) and Meta Platforms (META).

From one side, Bitcoin bulls have reasons to celebrate after its price recovered 34% from the $15,500 low on Nov. 21, but bears still have the upper hand on a larger time frame since BTC is down 52% in 12 months.

However, two events are expected to determine traditional finance investors' fate. On Jan. 16, China will announce its Gross Domestic Product figures and on Jan. 18, the United States Retail Sales will publish.

Fourth quarter earnings season will set the tone for this week's stock market performances, including Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Netflix (NFLS) and Procter & Gamble (PG).

In the cryptocurrency markets, there is mild relief stemming from some unexpected places — or people. Crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun is reportedly interested in acquiring assets from the troubled Digital Currency Group (DCG), the parent company of the crypto lender Genesis and the Grayscale funds' administrator.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has followed a four-year cycle, with consecutive bull and bear trends occurring in somewhat measurable intervals. A closer look at Bitcoin’s long-term price action reveals that the run-up to the top and bottom of the previous cycles look remarkably similar. What’s more interesting is that the 2020–2021 cycle shows signs of following the same pattern.

Independent market analyst HornHarris found that the period between the bottom-to-top and top-to-bottom has been the same since 2015: 152 weeks and 52 weeks, respectively.

Even in 2013, the bear market lasted 58 weeks, only a six-week difference from the other two cycles.

Another resemblance with the last bottom formation is the similarity between Bitcoin’s current uptrend and the one in 2019, when the primary catalyst was prevalent negative investor sentiment. Bitcoin price gained nearly 350% from the bottom of $3,125, and it didn’t drop below this level moving forward, marking the previous cycle’s bottom.

Four years later, the conditions have changed, but the underlying reason for the latest 30% surge in Bitcoin’s price was still the market expecting lower prices due to macroeconomic headwinds. The lack of positive sentiment and build-up of short positions in the futures market may have allowed buyers to stage a disbelief rally to hunt short-order liquidations and incite FOMO — fear of missing out — among investors who had been sitting on the sidelines.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked higher around the Jan. 17 Wall Street open as nervous analysts waited for further cues.

Opinions diverge over Bitcoin's fate

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD briefly touching $21,594 on Bitstamp, marking its highest since Sep. 13.

As bullish impulses continued to hit the chart, reactions stayed conservative amid an atmosphere of suspicion over the true source of Bitcoin’s return to form.

One such cautious take came from Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, who eyed behavior around a key exponential moving average (EMA) across crypto.

“Food for thought; Total market capitalization and the altcoin market capitalization are both at the 200-day EMA's, while Bitcoin is barely breaking it without any volume,” he noted.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new two-month highs overnight into Jan. 19 as suspicions over the market’s validity gained momentum.

Concern over BTC liquidity “exploit”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it consolidated above $21,000 after hitting $21,455 on Bitstamp.

That marked the pair’s highest point yet in 2023, the latest accomplishment in a bullish recovery unchallenged since the FTX debacle.

Amid widespread mistrust of the move, however, fresh warnings arose as Bitcoin continued to defy predictions of a major retracement.

Analyzing order book composition for BTC/USD on the largest exchange Binance, Material Indicators expressed surprise that those bidding Bitcoin higher had not yet pulled support.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at its highest levels in over two months, but the phrase on every trader’s lips is “bull trap.”

After delivering 25% returns in a single week, BTC/USD remains under suspicion among Bitcoin bear market survivors. 

Bitcoin bull trap fails to convince

It has been called the “biggest bull trap” ever seen, and despite holding above $20,000, BTC price action is fooling no one.

This week, with Wall Street closed until Jan. 17, out-of-hours trading continues to support higher levels, but faith in these staying around for long is hard to find.

For those who observed drop after drop throughout 2022, culminating in the FTX scandal, it appears simply too good to be true that Bitcoin will now flip bullish.

Bitcoin (BTC) shows the potential of stretching its ongoing price recovery to $25,000 by March, based on a mix of bullish technical and macro indicators.

Bitcoin price exits descending channel range

First, Bitcoin's potential to hit $25,000 comes from its exit from a prevailing descending channel range.

Notably, the BTC price broke out of the range late last week while accompanying a rise in its trading volumes. The cryptocurrency's move upside also pushed the price above its resistance confluence, comprising a psychological price ceiling of $20,000 and its 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA; the green wave) near $19,500, as shown below. 

Breaking three resistance levels with strong volumes shows traders' conviction about an extended price rally. Should it happen, Bitcoin's next upside target appears at its 200-week EMA (the yellow wave) at around $25,000 — a 20% rise from current price levels.

Dollar forms a "death cross"

Bitcoin's bullish technical outlook appears against the backdrop of a relatively weaker U.S. dollar, down due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates over lowering inflation.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week at new 2023 highs, but still divides opinion after a blistering price rally.

In what is shaping up to be the antidote to last year’s slow bleed to lower prices, January has delivered the volatility Bitcoin bulls were hoping for — but can they sustain it?

This is the key question for market participants going into the third week of the month.

Opinion remains divided on Bitcoin’s fundamental strength; some believe outright that the march to two-month highs is a “sucker’s rally,” while others are hoping that the good times will continue — at least for the time being.

Beyond market dynamics, there is no shortage of potential catalysts waiting to assert themselves on sentiment.

The cryptocurrency markets have made a strong comeback in the past few days. That drove the total crypto market capitalization to $995 billion on Jan. 14, according to CoinMarketCap data. Bitcoin (BTC) led the recovery from the front, skyrocketing above $21,000 on Jan. 14.

After the sharp rally, the big question is whether the recovery is a dead cat bounce that is a selling opportunity, or the start of a new uptrend. It is difficult to predict with certainty if a macro bottom has been made but the charts suggest that a bottoming process has begun.

Independent market analyst HornHairs highlighted that the 2017 to 2018 bear market lasted for 364 days and that from 2021 to the current market low, the duration is again 364 days. Another interesting similarity is that the 2015 to 2017 bull market and the 2018 to 2021 bull phase both lasted for 1,064 days. If history repeats itself, then Bitcoin may make the next top in roughly 1,000 days.

Bitcoin’s short-term price action has been exciting for bulls but are there altcoins that are showing similar strength in the near term?

Let’s study the charts to find out.

Bitcoin (BTC) may be circling its highest levels in months, but few are convinced that the bull market is back.

Ahead of a key weekly close, BTC/USD remains near $21,000, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, with analysts nervous about the good times ending all too soon.

Bitcoin to see new “depression” before bull run resumes

Bitcoin is dividing opinion after its week of brisk gains. Warnings over a potential pullback abound, while others are already commiserating bears ahead of time.

“Now bears will be caught in the vicious cycle of praying for pullbacks to go lower, not realizing the tides have shifted for a time and we’re going higher,” Chris Burniske, former head of crypto at ARK Invest, summarized.

Even more optimistic takes such as that of Burniske, however, do not foresee the upside continuing uninterrupted in a definitive end to Bitcoin’s latest bear market.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued a stunning comeback on Jan. 14 as $21,000 appeared for the first time since early November.

Bitcoin cracks key trend line for first time since $69K

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it hit highs of $21,247 on Bitstamp overnight.

The pair had faced major suspicion after it began to make up some serious lost ground through the week, with analysts warning that a retracement could occur at any time.

Nonetheless, only brief periods of consolidation accompanied Bitcoin's ascent, with weekly gains sitting at nearly 25%.

In doing so, BTC/USD took out its realized price at $19,700, old all-time high from 2017, $20,000 and the 200-day moving average. The latter saw its first resistance/ support challenge since October 2021, one month before Bitcoin's most recent all-time high.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization reached its highest level in over two months on Jan. 13 after breaking above the $900 billion mark on Jan. 12.

While the 15.5% year-to-date gain sounds promising, the level is still 50% below the $1.88 trillion crypto market cap seen before the Terra-Luna ecosystem collapsed in April 2022.

“Hopeful skepticism” is probably the best description of most investors’ sentiment at the moment, especially after the recent struggles of recapturing a $1 trillion market capitalization in early November. That rally to $1 trillion was followed by a 27.6% correction in three days and it invalidated any bullish momentum that traders might have expected.

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 15.7% year-to-date, but a different scenario has emerged for altcoins, with a handful of them gaining 50% or more in the same period. Some investors attribute the rally to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Jan. 12, which confirmed the thesis that inflation was continuing to drop.

While the macroeconomic conditions might have improved, the situation for cryptocurrency companies seems gloomy. New York-based Metropolitan Commercial Bank (MCB) announced on Jan. 9 that it would close its crypto-assets vertical, citing changes in the regulatory landscape and recent setbacks in the industry. Crypto-related clients accounted for 6% of the bank’s total deposits.