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The cryptocurrency markets and the United States equities markets witnessed profit-booking this week as the macroeconomic data hinted toward continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin (BTC) is down more than 4% and the S&P 500 fell 2.7% to record its worst week of the year. 

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 73% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed in the March meeting but after the hotter-than-expected inflation readings in two weeks, the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike has started to slowly gain traction.

During periods of uncertainty, some coins enter a deeper correction while a few buck the trend and continue to outperform. Hence, it becomes important to select the right coins to trade.

A few coins that have witnessed a shallow correction or have bounced sharply off the support have been selected in this list. Let’s see their charts and determine the levels to watch out for.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plunged below the 20-day exponential moving average ($23,391) on Feb. 24 but the bears could not build upon this advantage and sustain the price below the strong support at $22,800.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to end the week above $23,000 into the Feb. 26 close as concerns heightened over stubborn resistance.

BTC price bulls keep faith in $30,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $23,318 on the day, up $600 from its weekend lows.

The latest move marked a modest comeback after a grim week for risk assets which saw United States equities suffer thanks to above-expected inflation data.

Despite that, Bitcoin still remained below levels flagged by analysts as important to reclaim before the end of the month.

Only isolated voices remained optimistic, these including popular trader Kaleo, who maintained that $30,000 remained a BTC price “magnet.”

Bitcoin (BTC) threatened to ditch $23,000 as support on Feb. 25 as an ongoing price correction strengthened into the weekend.

BTC price support inches lower

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD attempting to decide the fate of the $23,000 mark on the day.

The pair had lost almost $1,000 on Feb. 24, ending the week in a limp position along with United States equities while the dollar gained.

With “out-of-hours” trading now in place until Monday, chances for thinner liquidity to spark more pronounced moves heightened.

Analyzing the state of the Binance order book, monitoring resource Material Indicators confirmed the continued existence of a major line of bid support informally known as the “Notorious B.I.D.” and “great wall.”

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price rally from $16,500 to $25,000 can be attributed to a short squeeze in the futures market and recent macroeconomic improvements. However, while prices increased, data suggests that many interested buyers (including whales) were left on the sidelines. 

The recent rally to $25,000 shared many similarities with the 2019 bear market rally, which saw a 330% surge in Bitcoin’s price to highs around $14,000 from the November 2019 low at $3,250. Recently, the BTC/USD pair rose 60% from its November 2022 low.

On-chain and market indicators relative to the 2019 rally are sending mixed signals on whether or not Bitcoin's rally will continue. Nevertheless, there are strong reasons to believe that the market has reached a crucial turning point where it can either turn into a full-fledged bull market or slump back into a long-term bear trend.

Let’s look at the top five indicators to understand the current price dynamic relative to the 2019 bull run.

Bitcoin tackles historical trading levels

Bitcoin’s price surpassed the 200-day moving average (MA) at $19,600, which could encourage paper traders looking to open a long position. Historically, this metric has acted as a bull-bear pivot line, with breakouts above it being bullish and vice versa.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed lower at the Feb. 24 Wall Street open as United States macroeconomic data showed inflation biting back.

PCE sparks fresh doubts on inflation

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it traded in a narrowing range around $23,800.

The pair attempted to reclaim $24,500 the day prior, but it ultimately proved unsuccessful, as resistance kept gains in check.

Bitcoin nonetheless saw only a muted reaction to the latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index print, which was 4.7% instead of the 4.3% forecast — suggesting that inflation was not ebbing as quickly as hoped.

For popular commentator Tedtalksmacro, this will cause the Federal Reserve to consider a larger interest rate hike at its March meeting — a potential headwind for risk assets including crypto.

It’s possible that many people have already forgotten that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price closed 2022 at $16,529 and the recent rebound and rejection at the $25,000 level could raise concern among certain investors. Bears are pushing back at the $25,000 level and there has been multiple failed attempts at the level between Feb. 16 and Feb. 21. Currently, it looks like the $23,500 resistance is continuing to gain strength with every retest. 

Pinpointing the rationale behind Bitcoin’s 45.5% year-to-date gain is not apparent, but part of it comes from the United States Federal Reserve’s inability to curb inflation while raising interest rates to its highest level in 15 years. The unintended consequence is higher government debt repayments and this adds further pressure to the budget deficit.

It’s virtually impossible to predict when the Fed will change its stance, but as the debt to gross domestic product ratio surpasses 128, it should not take longer than 18 months. At some point, the value of the U.S. dollar itself could become endangered due to extreme debt leverage.

On Feb. 23, the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued a joint statement encouraging U.S. banks that rely on funding from the crypto sector to prevent liquidity runs by maintaining strong risk management practices. Regulators said the report was spurred by “recent events” in the industry due to increased volatility risks.

Let's look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.