Decentral Block Post

For the past twelve days, the price of Ether (ETH) has been trading in a narrow descending range. Surprisingly, not even the news of Binance and Changpeng "CZ" Zhao being sued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) was enough to break the support level. 

The lawsuit, filed on March 27, claimed that Binance provided derivatives trading services to U.S.-based customers without first obtaining a derivatives license. Additionally, the US Securities and Exchange Commission served Coinbase with a Wells notice on March 22.

Even if traders saw no reason to reduce their Ether positions due to increased regulatory risk, Binance holds 35% of the open interest in Ether futures. Therefore, if traders are suddenly compelled to liquidate their positions or if there is a sudden reduction in liquidity after U.S. entities are effectively barred from Binance's markets, one should anticipate a significant impact on Ether derivatives markets.

One could point to the market's resiliency after BitMEX derivatives exchange lost its longtime market share advantage following a 30-minute outage in March 2020 during a Bitcoin crash. However, there is no way to predict the outcome of the regulators' case against Binance, so it would be naive to assume that there is a zero percent chance of a service interruption — even if it means clients can close positions and withdraw assets.

Instead of focusing solely on the ETH price, it is essential to closely monitor Ether derivatives to understand how professional traders will react.

For the past twelve days, the price of Ether (ETH) has been trading in a narrow descending range. Surprisingly, not even the news of Binance and Changpeng "CZ" Zhao being sued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) was enough to break the support level. 

The lawsuit, filed on March 27, claimed that Binance provided derivatives trading services to U.S.-based customers without first obtaining a derivatives license. Additionally, the US Securities and Exchange Commission served Coinbase with a Wells notice on March 22.

Even if traders saw no reason to reduce their Ether positions due to increased regulatory risk, Binance holds 35% of the open interest in Ether futures. Therefore, if traders are suddenly compelled to liquidate their positions or if there is a sudden reduction in liquidity after U.S. entities are effectively barred from Binance's markets, one should anticipate a significant impact on Ether derivatives markets.

One could point to the market's resiliency after BitMEX derivatives exchange lost its longtime market share advantage following a 30-minute outage in March 2020 during a Bitcoin crash. However, there is no way to predict the outcome of the regulators' case against Binance, so it would be naive to assume that there is a zero percent chance of a service interruption — even if it means clients can close positions and withdraw assets.

Instead of focusing solely on the ETH price, it is essential to closely monitor Ether derivatives to understand how professional traders will react.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up about 71% in Q1 2023, which is the first positive quarter after four consecutive quarters of negative returns in 2023, according to data from Coinglass. This shows that the sentiment has turned positive and the bulls are trying to put a bottom in Bitcoin.

When the undercurrent is bullish, negative news results in shallow corrections. That is what happened after the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission slapped a lawsuit against Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao for trading violations. This news pulled the markets marginally lower but did not start a strong down move.

Another thing that happens in a bullish environment is that cryptocurrencies move up without any specific catalyst. That happened on March 29 when Bitcoin and several major altcoins turned up sharply.

Could Bitcoin and select altcoins start the next leg of the uptrend and where is the rally likely to face resistance? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

In an uptrend, traders typically buy the pullbacks to the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,371). The long tails on the March 27 and 28 candlestick show just that.

Bitcoin mining stocks had a dull performance in March, with small moves here and there that followed BTC's price movement. While it is encouraging to see that most stocks held onto their impressive January gains, Bitcoin's price action will be crucial for the short-to-medium-term performance of these stocks.

Additionally, the expansion of the public Bitcoin mining sector in the U.S. continues as American miners reported one of the biggest ASIC imports in January 2023. The delivery of new machines and an increase in the BTC price led to a surge in the network's hashrate to new all-time highs. Miners' incomes, however, are subdued by the rising network difficulty.

Mining stocks are in wait-and-see mode

Despite Bitcoin’s recent 18% rally, subdued performances of most mining stocks can be attributed to the uncertainty around the sustainability of Bitcoin’s price rally and the increasing competition in the mining industry. The Hashrate Index, a proxy for Bitcoin mining stocks, increased 10% in March from 1,929 to 2,141 points.

The median monthly gain in the top ten mining stocks is 0.30%, with an average of 5.21%. Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining led the monthly gains across the sector with a 28.64% and 24.34% rise. CleanSpark, Inc. and Bitfarms Ltd. were the worst performers, with negative 6.52% and 5.79% moves.

The average Q1 2023 gains across the top ten Bitcoin mining stocks is 128%. These shares yielded the majority of their Q1 2023 gains in January. The following months, February and March, saw a muted performance from most mining company stocks.

Bitcoin (BTC) may have erased its Binance “FUD” losses, but popular traders are anything but bullish.

Despite gaining up to 7.5% versus its March 28 lows, BTC/USD is causing more suspicion than excitement with its return to local highs.

$30,000 stays breaker for bullish sentiment flip

In a move that echoes its reactions to previous news events, such as the Silicon Valley Bank demise, Bitcoin has recovered snap losses in record time.

On March 29, BTC price action hit $28,650 on Bitstamp — just $200 off new nine-month highs.

Unlike before, however, the mood among market participants is distinctly risk-off under current conditions.

XRP (XRP) outperformed its top-ranking crypto rivals over the past 24 hours while reaching the highest price in 10 months. 

XRP price tags 10-month high

On March 29, XRP's price surged by nearly 15% to $0.58, its highest level in ten months, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) in the past 24 hours that rose around 4.5% and 2.75%, respectively.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) referred to Bitcoin, Ether, and Litecoin (LTC) as "commodities" in its court filing against Binance. While the U.S. regulatory didn't name XRP, many assumed the token would be categorized as a commodity.

Related: Here’s why CFTC suing Binance is a bigger deal than an SEC enforcement

The lawsuit will likely conclude by the end of March, with legal experts believing Ripple has a chance to win. XRP price has rallied 45% month-to-date on similar hopes, including the March 29 price rally, supplemented further by investors' optimistic interpretation of the CFTC court filing.

XRP (XRP) outperformed its top-ranking crypto rivals over the past 24 hours while reaching its highest price in 10 months. 

XRP price tags 10-month high

On March 29, XRP’s price surged by nearly 15% to $0.58, its highest level in 10 months, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) in the past 24 hours, which rose around 4.5% and 2.75%, respectively.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission referred to Bitcoin, Ether and Litecoin (LTC) as “commodities” in its court filing against Binance. While the United States regulatory body didn’t name XRP, many assumed the token would be categorized as a commodity.

Related: Here’s why CFTC suing Binance is a bigger deal than an SEC enforcement

The SEC v. Ripple lawsuit will have likely concluded by the end of March, with legal experts believing Ripple can win. XRP’s price has rallied 45% month-to-date on similar hopes, including the March 29 price rally, supplemented further by investors’ optimistic interpretation of the CFTC court filing.