Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals. 

BTC's price has rallied roughly 25% after dropping to around $17,500 on June 18. The upside retrace came after a 75% correction when measured from its November 2021 high of $69,000.

The recovery seems modest, however, and carries bearish continuation risks due to prevailing macroeconomic headwinds (rate hike, inflation, etc.) and the collapse of many high-profile crypto firms such as Three Arrows Capital, Terra and others.

But some widely-tracked indicators paint a different scenario, suggesting that Bitcoin's downside prospects from current price levels are minimal. 

That big "oversold" bounce

The first sign of Bitcoin's macro bottom comes from its weekly relative strength index (RSI).

The total crypto market capitalization broke above $1 trillion on July 18 after an agonizing thirty-five-day stint below the key psychological level. Over the next seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) traded flat near $22,400 and Ether (ETH) faced a 0.5% correction to $1,560.

The total crypto capitalization closed July 24 at $1.03 trillion, a modest 0.5% negative seven-day movement. The apparent stability is biased toward the flat performance of BTC and Ether and the $150 billion value of stablecoins. The broader data hides the fact that seven out of the top-80 coins dropped 9% or more in the period.

Even though the chart shows support at the $1 trillion level, it will take some time until investors regain confidence to invest in cryptocurrencies and actions from the United States Federal Reserve could have the largest impact on price action.

Furthermore, the sit and wait mentality could be a reflection of important macroeconomic events scheduled for the week ahead. Broadly speaking, worse than expected data tends to increase investors' expectations of expansionary measures, which are beneficial for riskier assets like cryptocurrency.

The Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 26 and 27, and investors expect the United States central bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Moreover, the second quarter of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the broadest measure of economic activity — will be released on July 27.

The total crypto market capitalization broke above $1 trillion on July 18 after an agonizing thirty-five-day stint below the key psychological level. Over the next seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) traded flat near $22,400 and Ether (ETH) faced a 0.5% correction to $1,560.

The total crypto capitalization closed July 24 at $1.03 trillion, a modest 0.5% negative seven-day movement. The apparent stability is biased toward the flat performance of BTC and Ether and the $150 billion value of stablecoins. The broader data hides the fact that seven out of the top-80 coins dropped 9% or more in the period.

Even though the chart shows support at the $1 trillion level, it will take some time until investors regain confidence to invest in cryptocurrencies and actions from the United States Federal Reserve could have the largest impact on price action.

Furthermore, the sit and wait mentality could be a reflection of important macroeconomic events scheduled for the week ahead. Broadly speaking, worse than expected data tends to increase investors' expectations of expansionary measures, which are beneficial for riskier assets like cryptocurrency.

The Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 26 and 27, and investors expect the United States central bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Moreover, the second quarter of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the broadest measure of economic activity — will be released on July 27.

Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins are witnessing profit-booking on July 25 as the bulls scale back their positions before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 26 through July 27. This indicates that the sentiment remains fragile and that bulls are not confident about carrying long positions into the event.

Several analysts have retained their bearish view after Bitcoin failed to sustain above the 200-week moving average at $22,780. CryptoQuant contributor Venturefounder expects the selling to resume and Bitcoin to fall as low as $14,000 before a macro bottom is confirmed.

The institutional investors seem to be absent from the markets and the recovery is being driven by the retail investors. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed that investors holding one Bitcoin or less have been aggressively accumulating “more now than ever.”

Could retail investors continue their frantic pace of purchasing and put a floor below Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin rebounded off the 20-day exponential moving average ($21,857) on July 23 but the bulls could not clear the hurdle at $23,363 on July 24. This suggests that bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to its realized price just below $22,000 on July 25 as Wall Street opened with a flat performance.

Bitcoin gives up more key levels

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it consolidated after falling from $23,000 overnight.

The pair echoed equities in cool trading prior to the July 27 United States Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. Analysts were expecting several days of volatility, and despite buyer interest in Bitcoin being strong below spot price, everything could still change.

“Big week ahead for the markets,” Umar Ashraf, founder of trading tool TradeZella, forecast.

“Tons of big names reporting earnings alongside with the FOMC starting Tuesday followed by the announcement on Wednesday. Big week doesn’t always mean market must see action, it could be a time period for the market to digest info for next move.”