Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) came within $1,000 of its previous cycle all-time highs on June 14 as liquidations mounted across crypto markets. 

Bitcoin price hits 18-month lows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $20,816, on Bitstamp, its lowest since the week of December 14, 2020.

A sell-off that began before the weekend intensified after the June 13 Wall Street opening bell, with Bitcoin and altcoins falling in step with United States equities.

The S&P 500 finished the day down 3.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 4.7% ahead of key comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve on its anti-inflation policy.

The worst of the rout was reserved for crypto, however, and with that, BTC/USD lost 22.4% from the start of the week to the time of writing.

Ripple general counsel Stu Alderoty has slammed the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for trying to “bully, bulldoze, and bankrupt” crypto innovation in the U.S. in the name of expanding its own regulatory territory:

“By bringing enforcement actions–or threats of potential enforcement–the SEC intends to bully, bulldoze, and bankrupt crypto innovation in the U.S., all in the name of impermissibly expanding its own jurisdictional limits.”

Alderoty shared his views on Monday amid an ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the regulator, which he says is part of the “SEC’s assault on all crypto in the U.S.” by treating every cryptocurrency as a security:

“Like a hammer wanting everything to be a nail, the SEC is keeping everything murky so it can argue every crypto is a security.”

Ripple Labs has been embroiled in a legal battle with the SEC since December 2020, when the securities regulator filed a lawsuit alleging that Ripple executives had used Ripple (XRP) tokens to raise funds for the company starting in 2013, claiming it was unregistered security at the time.

Bitcoin's (BTC) month-long choppy price action came to an end on June 13 after a deep market sell-off pressed the top cryptocurrency under the $29,000 support. The move took place as equities markets also sold off sharply, hitting their lowest levels of the year. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the Bitcoin sell-off began late in the day on June 12 and escalated into midday on June 13, when BTC hit a low of $22,592.

Here’s a look at what several market analysts are saying about Bitcoin's drop and whether this is the final capitulation event before the long-awaited price bottom.

Is there solid support at $23,000?

Previous instances of bear market capitulation have seen a solid level of support at Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, as shown in the following chart posted by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Rekt Capital.”

Based on the trend from the last two cycles, Rekt Capital suggested that it's possible that BTC could see a “macro double bottom at the 200-week moving average” moving forward if the price action plays out in a similar fashion.

Crypto traders and investors started out the week with a major shock to the markets. As assets across the blockchain industry went into a collective dive on Monday, users took to Twitter to voice their dismay (or in some cases jubilation) with the current state of crypto.

Inflation, potential interest rate hikes, a looming recession, and yet another DeFi fiasco have all contributed to the current onslaught seen in markets on Monday. As a result, Bitcoin's (BTC) price plunged to levels not seen since late 2020, several crypto exchanges limited users from withdrawing their tokens, an increasing number of Web3-centric companies announced layoffs, and the floor prices of various nonfungible token (NFT) projects tumbled.

Taking a look at a few tweets from seasoned crypto enthusiasts shows the overall sentiment. Holding Bitcoin and alts is the true crypto investors' theme, however, some appear to be experiencing a weakening of their supposed diamond hands. As one user noted:

The crypto space isn’t alone in its plight, with the entire stock market experiencing a major loss in tandem. Increased monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve has caused investors to sell off many types of stocks as the S&P 500 fell 4% to reach a new low for 2022.

Whales and former whales have begun to make their voices heard as the realization that they’ve lost a massive chunk of their wealth becomes evermore apparent.

On June 13, cryptocurrency prices plunged deeper into bear market territory after Bitcoin (BTC) sliced through its current trading range and briefly touched $22,600, its lowest level se since December 2020.

According to BTC historical data, the market has now reached valuation metrics that show the price is severely oversold and perhaps near a bottom. Bitcoin has now fallen below its realized price, which represents the average price of every coin in supply based on the time it was last spent on-chain.

While the pain that this most recent capitulation has wrought across the ecosystem can’t be understated, the one glimmer of hope it offers weary crypto traders is that the worst of the decline could have occurred. The coming days will confirm this theory and proof would be institutions and retail traders stepping in to buy the dip.

"Shrimps and whales" accumulate

On-chain data shows that not all traders feel devastated about Bitcoin at yearly lows. Shrimp wallets, wallets that hold less than 1 BTC, and whale wallets with more than 10,000 BTC have been in accumulation mode since the old Terra (LUNA), now known as Luna Classic (LUNC), collapsed in early May.

According to data from blockchain intelligence provider Glassnode, shrimp wallets “have seen a net balance growth of +20,863 since the May 9th Luna crash,” and a total increase of 96,300 BTC since November's all-time high (ATH).

The United States equities markets extended their decline to start the week on June 13. The S&P 500 hit a new year-to-date low and dipped into bear market territory, falling more than 20% from its all-time high made on Jan. 4. 

The cryptocurrency markets are tracking the equities markets lower and the selling pressure further intensified due to the rumored liquidity crisis of major lending platform Celsius and traders possibly selling positions to meet margin calls. This pulled the total crypto market capitalization below $1 trillion.

The sharp declines have led some analysts to project extremely bearish targets. While anything is possible in the markets and it is difficult to call a bottom, capitulations usually tend to start a bottoming formation. Traders may get their buy list ready and consider accumulating in phases after the price stops falling.

What are the important levels that may arrest the decline in Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin broke below the immediate support at $28,630 on June 11. This accelerated selling and the bears pulled the price below the critical support at $26,700 on June 12. This indicated the resumption of the downtrend.

Bitcoin (BTC) lost the $28,000 support on June 12 following worsening macroeconomic conditions. The United States Treasury 2-year note yield closed on June 10 at 3.10%, its highest level since December 2007. This shows that traders are demanding higher rates to hold their debt instruments and expect inflation to remain a persistent challenge.

Louis S. Barnes, a senior loan officer at Cherry Creek, stated that as the United States reported its highest inflation in 40 years, the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets had zero buyers. Barnes added:

"Stocks are down 2% today [June 10], but would be down a hell of a lot more if considering what a full-stop to housing will mean."

MicroStrategy and Celsius leverage use raised alarms

Bitcoin’s sell-off is adding more pressure to the cryptocurrency market and various media are discussing whether the U.S. Nasdaq-listed analytics and business intelligence company MicroStrategy and its $205 million Bitcoin-collateralized loan with Silvergate Bank will add to the current crypto collapse. The interest-only loan was issued on March 29, 2022, and secured by Bitcoin, which is held in a mutually authorized custodian's account.

As stated by Microstrategy's earnings call by chief financial officer Phong Le on May 3, if Bitcoin plummeted to $21,000, an additional amount of margin would be required. However, on May 10, Michael Saylor clarified that the entire 115,109 BTC position could be pledged, reducing the liquidation to $3,562.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) fell to as low as $950 on Uniswap—a decentralized crypto exchange— this June 13, about 20% lower than its spot rate across other exchanges.

Over $130M ETH sold in six hours

The incident happened at around 3:00 am UTC after a whale dumped 65,000 ETH for multiple "stablecoins," including USD Coin (USDC), Tether (USDT) and Dai (DAI).

A piece of evidence noted that the whale sold its ETH holdings to pay off nearly $73 million worth of debt at Oasis.app, a DeFi lending platform. The duration of the sell-off saw ETH's liquidation price dropping from $1,200 to $875.

The Oasis borrower continued the selling spree—dumping another stash of nearly 28,000 ETH five hours after the first selloff—to pay back another $32 million in debt. This time, the liquidation price rose from $892 to $1,200, as shown below.

As a result, the whale dumped around 93,000 ETH within just six hours. The amount equals toroughly $112 million at June 13's ETH/USD price.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at its lowest since mid-December 2020 on June 13, but the bottom could be anywhere.

As the weekend sell-off intensifies, BTC/USD has now broken below its realized price for the first time since March 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

Bitcoin clings to realized price

At around $23,400, the realized price — the average price at which each BTC last moved — is acting as the first solid support so far on lower timeframes.

Previous levels, including those highlighted as potential bottoms, have failed to hold, and sentiment continues to favor further sell-side pressure thanks to the Celsius aftermath, inflation and forthcoming actions by the United States Federal Reserve.

Where BTC/USD could put in a final macro floor, meanwhile, is now a topic of heated debate.

Ethereum is plagued with criticisms of its less than optimal scaling capabilities and high gas prices. There have been talks about increasing the scaling capacity of the Ethereum mainnet for a while now. 

However, the Ethereum ecosystem needs a solution for scaling right now, and if Ethereum is not able to give these new applications a platform with enough scaling capabilities, they can seek alternatives like the BNB Chain or Cardano. Optimism rollout was created to solve exactly the scalability problem of Ethereum.

Optimism Rollup network is one of the several solutions trying to address Ethereum’s congestion problem. The Ethereum network is often congested to the almost maximum capacity, and until upgrades to the main blockchain are made, scaling solutions like Optimism allow Ethereum’s transactional abilities to remain usable without shelling out a fortune on gas fees.

In short, Optimism uses advanced data compression techniques to speed up and cut the costs of Ethereum transactions. They do so by a technique known as called Optimistic Rollups, where multiple transactions are “rolled up” into one transaction and settled on another cheaper blockchain. The verified transactions are then fed back to the main Ethereum blockchain. The biggest advantage of Optimistic Rollups is the fact that they do not compute by default, which theoretically leads to scalability gains. Estimates say Optimistic Rollups can offer 10-100x improvements to scalability. On the downside, however, is the existence of a “challenge period,” which is a time window in which anyone can challenge assertion and increase withdrawal time.

Battle of the rollups

Now, a natural question arises: How is this different from widely used zero-knowledge (zk) Rollups?