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Bitcoin clings to $20K as whale pressure keeps resistance in control

Traders look for volatility triggers as BTC price action continues within an all-too-familiar trading range.

Global Bitcoin adoption is ‘still in its infancy,’ but here’s how it might accelerate

Rome wasn’t built in a day, and it will also take some time for every country on Earth to adopt BTC.

Ethereum open interest hits $7.7B, raising the chance of a short squeeze above $1.5K

The Ether futures premium remains negative, while options markets are pricing similar risks for bulls and bears.

'Violent' Bitcoin breakout due as BTC open interest nears all-time high

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed rangebound at the Oct. 6 Wall Street open with traders already planning for a “violent” breakout.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin whale activity highlights the importance of $19,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it moved up and down by only a matter of a few hundred dollars on the day.

The amount of $20,000 formed a focus for the pair, which meandered in step with consolidating U.S. equities and dollar strength.

With no spot catalyst in sight on short timeframes, on-chain analytics resource Whalemap turned to largescale buy and sell points to sketch out likely support and resistance.

To the downside, $19,174 marked the site of whale buy-ins, suggesting its continued strength as a line in the sand.

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Bitcoin beats out shorts as BTC price attempts to crack $20.5K

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed and held $20,000 into Oct. 6 as the latest rebound punished short speculators.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin preserves “important” $19,600 zone

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD bouncing from local lows of $19,740 on Bitstamp around the Oct. 5 Wall Street open.

The pair then reversed prior losses, leading early shorters into $20 million in liquidations in 24 hours.

BTC liquidiations chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $20,250, having gone on to reach $20,447 on the day.

Michaël van de Poppe, CEO and founder of trading firm Eight, had flagged the lows as a suitable entry point.

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Will bulls take charge now that Bitcoin price trades above a long-term trendline resistance?

On Oct. 4 and 5, Bitcoin (BTC) took another step through the $20,000 mark, bringing the price above a long-term descending trendline that stretches all the way back to April 22 or Nov. 15, depending on one’s style of technical analysis.

Some traders might be feeling a bit celebratory now that the price trades outside of the descending trendline, but have any relevant metrics or macro factors changed enough to support a bullish point of view for Bitcoin price?

In reality, BTC price simply “consolidated” its way through the trendline by trading in a sideways manner where price has been range bound between $18,500 and $24,500 for the past 114 days.

BTC/USDT. Source: TradingView

Direction-wise, Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) tend to trade in tandem with equities, and BTC’s Oct. 4 rally to $20,365 comes as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the day with 2% to 3% gains.

BTC, ETH and S&P 500 correlations. Source: Coin Metrics

As a reminder that short-term price action is not necessarily reflective of a larger trend change, Coin Metrics said:


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Bitcoin derivatives data reflects traders’ belief that $20K will become support

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on Oct. 4 and 5, posting a 5% gain on Oct. 5 and breaking through the $20,000 resistance. The move liquidated $75 million worth of leverage short (bear) positions and it led some traders to predict a potential rally to $28,000.

As described by Moustache, the descending channel continues to exert its pressure, but there could be enough strength to test the upper channel trendline at $21,500. The price action coincided with improving conditions for global equity markets on Oct. 4, as the S&P 500 index gained 3.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied 3.3%.

Curiously, the sentiment improvement happened while the United States job openings dropped by 1.1 million in August, according to the U.S. Labor Department. The decline was the largest since April 2020 and signaled the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive contractive monetary policy could end sooner than expected.

The overall bullish sentiment might have caused Bitcoin to break the $20,000 resistance, but that does not mean professional investors are comfortable at the current price levels.

Margin traders did not increase their longs despite the rally

Monitoring margin and options markets provide excellent insight into how professional traders are positioned. Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position. For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy an additional Bitcoin position.


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Bitcoin repeats key bear market move as $19K becomes key BTC price zone

Bitcoin (BTC) holding $19,000 could be more important than traders realize, new data reveals.

In the latest edition of its monthly report series, “The Bitcoin Monthly,” investment management firm ARK Invest flagged an ongoing battle for the defense of Bitcoin’s investor cost basis.

Bitcoin investor cost basis buoys market

Bitcoin price action is currently characterized by volatile moves within a clearly defined range only around $4,000 across.

Having held since June, this range contains what immediately stands out as a focal point — the prior halving cycle’s all-time high of $20,000.

With BTC/USD crossing that threshold frequently, however, traders have long sought alternative lines in the sand when it comes to new trends for the pair.

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Bitcoin still has $14K target, warns trader as DXY due ‘parabola’ break

Bitcoin (BTC) held $20,000 into Oct. 5 with trader targets still including a fresh high before rejection.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

$21,000 upside target to precede new lows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $20,470 on Bitstamp overnight before returning lower.

The pair succeeded in maintaining the 2017 old all-time high as support, something on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators had hoped would endure as a positive sign.

“BTC is still in a congested range,” it summarized in comments the day prior:

“The retest of technical resistance at the 50-Day MA was rejected. Now I want to see a retest of support at the 2017 Top. Bulls may be losing momentum, but placed a buy wall at $20k to hold price up.”

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Bitcoin miner profitability under threat as hash rate hits new all-time high

The Bitcoin hash rate hit a new all-time high above 245 EH/s on Oct. 3, but at the same time, BTC miner profitability is near the lowest levels on record. 

With prices in the low $20,000 range and the estimated network-wide cost of production at $12,140, Glassnode analysis suggests “that miners are somewhat on the cusp of acute income distress.”

Bitcoin network hash rate. Source: Hashrate Index

Generally, difficulty, a measure of how “difficult” it is to mine a block, is a component of determining the production cost of mining Bitcoin. Higher difficulty means additional computing power is required to mine a new block.

Utilizing a Difficulty Regression Model, the data shows an R2 coefficient of 0.944 and the last time the model flashed signs of the miners' distress was during BTC’s flush out to $17,840. Currently, it hovers near $18,300, which is not far from the price range seen in the past two weeks.

Bitcoin: Difficulty regression model. Source: glassnode

The hash rate hitting a new all-time high effectively means that miner margins will be further squeezed and outfits that are unprofitable can either mine at a loss, assuming that BTC’s future price will eventually make up for the cost difference, or they can unplug and wait until either the difficulty drops or energy costs improve.

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Wall Street disaster expert Bill Noble: Crypto spring is inevitable

In another reality, Bill Noble would be just another guy in a suit behind a big desk at the Fed or the SEC, probably murmuring negative incantations like “crypto is bad.”

He’s certainly got the track record for it: JP Morgan, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs. But that’s Noble in an evil mirror dimension. In our world, he is a true crypto guy, talking to me in a t-shirt with bicycles in the back of the room. He turned from the Dark Side and joined the rebels.

He is known for his popular YouTube podcasts and TV appearances. Currently, he is a senior market analyst at Token Metrics.

Wall Street career

While studying economics (1987–1991) at Rutgers University in New Jersey, he managed to wangle one of only two sought-after internships at the time at JP Morgan’s forex desk on Wall Street. Noble started off when trading technology was primitive and lots of analysis was done by hand on paper. In August 1990, he was put in charge of the desk, while everyone went on holiday, “‘Cos nothing happens in August, let the kid fill in.” Then Iraq invaded Kuwait, and all sorts of craziness broke out in the markets.

John J. Murphy’s Charting Made Easy.

“The price volatility seemed so extreme to me. I had no idea how anyone kept track of this. So, I went to the technical analyst who was attached to the currency unit. I said, ‘I bet everybody comes to you looking for help trying to figure this out.’”

Bill on stage
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Bitcoin price sees first October spike above $20K as daily gains hit 5%

Bitcoin (BTC) saw its first trip above $20,000 on Oct. 4 as traders expected familiar resistance to cap gains.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Multi-week dollar lows fuel Bitcoin bulls

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/United States dollar climbing prior to the Wall Street open, up over 5% in 24 hours.

The pair had shaken off macroeconomic concerns at the start of the week, with trouble at Credit Suisse and the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict failing to slow performance.

Now, the short-term analysis focused on a run potentially topping out closer to $21,000 — as was the case late last month, as sell-side pressure at that level remained significant.

“20500-21000 is a sell zone. If price gets there, which should, don’t be too bullish,” popular trader Il Capo of Crypto told Twitter followers on the day.

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A crumbling stock market could create profitable opportunities for Bitcoin traders

Some of the biggest companies in the world are expected to report their 2Q earnings in October, including electric automaker Tesla on Oct. 18, tech giants Meta and Microsoft on Oct. 24, Apple and Amazon on Oct. 26 and Google on Oct. 30. Currently, the possibility of an even more severe global economic slowdown is in the cards and lackluster profits could further add to the uncertainty.

Given the unprecedented nature of the United State Federal Reserve tightening and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties, investors are afraid that corporate profitability will start to deteriorate. In addition, persistent inflation continues to force businesses to cut back on hiring and adopt cost-cutting measures.

Strengthening the dollar is particularly punitive for U.S. listed companies because their products become more expensive in other countries and the reduced revenue brought in from overseas negatively impacts the bottom line. Google, for instance, is expected to grow revenues by less than 10%, down from a 40% growth in 2021.

The companies that comprise the S&P 500 account for an aggregate $32.9 trillion in value and crypto investors expect some of those bets to enter Bitcoin (BTC) if earnings season fails to sustain a modest growth — signaling the stock market should continue to underperform.

From one side, traders face the pressure from Bitcoin’s correlation to equities, but on the other hand, BTC’s scarcity might shine as inflation concerns arise. This possibly creates an immense opportunity for those betting on a BTC price rally, but extreme caution would also be needed for those opening positions.

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Upside capped at $980B total crypto market, according to derivatives metrics

It is becoming increasingly challenging to support a bullish short-term view for cryptocurrencies as the total crypto market capitalization has been below $1.4 trillion for the past 146 days. Furthermore, a descending channel initiated in late July has limited the upside after two strong rejections.

Total crypto market cap, USD. Source: TradingView

The 1% weekly negative performance in cryptocurrency markets was accompanied by stagnation in the S&P 500 stock market index, which remained basically flat at $3,650. Uncertainty continues to limit the eventual recovery as worsening global economic conditions have caused trans-Pacific shipping rates to plunge 75% versus the previous year, forcing ocean carriers to cancel dozens of sailings.

Conflicting macroeconomic signals limit risk market upside

From one side, the global macroeconomic scenario improved after the United Kingdom's government reverted plans to cut income taxes on Oct. 3. On the other hand, investors' fear increased as global investment bank Credit Suisse's credit default swaps reached their highest level on Oct. 3. Such instruments allow investors to protect against default, and their cost surpassed levels seen at the height of the 2008 financial crisis.

Below is a list of the winners and losers of the crypto market capitalization's 1% loss to $935 billion. Bitcoin (BTC) stood out with a 1% gain, which led its dominance rate to hit 41.5%, the highest since Aug. 5.

Weekly winners and losers among the top-80 coins. Source: Nomics

Quant (QNT) jumped 15% on speculation that its interoperable blockchain protocol would find adoption across governmental and regulatory bodies.


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XRP price could rally by 50% based off comments from a former SEC director

XRP is hoping that the token could see a massive price rally in 2022 based off the fingers-crossed assumption that Ripple will win its long-running legal battle against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Hinman documents to save XRP bulls?

On Sept. 29, the district court judge in the case, Judge Analisa Torres, ordered the commission to release the documents penned by William Hinman, the former director of the corporation finance division at the SEC. 

Hinman may have written about Ether (ETH), the native token of the Ethereum blockchain, not being a security in the concealed documents, believes Ripple. That is primarily because Hinman had proclaimed the same in his speech at the Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit in June 2018.

Ripple's defense could use Hinman's writing as evidence that its blockchain's native token, XRP, should not be treated as a security, which is the opposite of what the SEC claimed in the lawsuit filed in December 2020.

XRP has since been ousted from many regulated crypto exchanges, including Coinbase and Bitstamp. As a result, it is now among the only top cryptocurrencies that have neither reclaimed nor established a record high during the 2020–2021 crypto market boom, reflecting caution from investors.

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Bitcoin price sets October high with $20K in reach as US stocks rally

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to new October highs at the Oct. 3 Wall Street open as Credit Suisse concerns heightened. 

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Traders close in on rangebound BTC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD taking aim at $19,500 after starting the month flat.

The largest cryptocurrency reacted positively to lower than expected United States manufacturing data, while in Europe, market turmoil over Credit Suisse gathered pace despite executives’ reassurances.

“We are kicking off October trading in the same congested area we ended September,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators wrote in one of several updates on the day.

“The 21 DMA is behaving like a ceiling on BTC price, but expect it to be retested soon. Need it to do so for any shot at reclaiming the 20s.”

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BTC price still not at ‘max pain’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in a precarious place as global macro instability dictates the mood.

After sealing a weekly close just inches above $19,000, the largest cryptocurrency still lacks direction as nerves heighten over the resilience of the global financial system.

Last week proved a testing time for risk asset investors, with gloomy economic data flowing from the United States and, moreover, Europe.

The eurozone thus provides the backdrop to the latest concerns of market participants, who are watching as the financial buoyancy of major banks is called into question.

With the war in Ukraine only escalating and winter approaching, it is perhaps understandable that hardly anyone is optimistic — what could the impact be on Bitcoin and crypto?

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Bitcoin price starts 'Uptober' down 0.7% amid hope for final $20K push

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to hold $20,000 into the September monthly close as one trader eyed a final comeback before fresh downside.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Trader's $20,500 upside target remains

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD staying lower after finishing the month at around $19,400.

Capping 3% losses, the monthly chart failed to rally on Oct. 1, with BTC/USD down another 0.7% in “Uptober” so far, according to data from on-chain data resource Coinglass.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

Dismal financial data from macro markets contributed to the lack of appetite for risk assets, and among crypto traders, the outlook remained gloomy.

For popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto, a return above the $20,000 mark was still possible on the day, this still to be followed by a dive much lower.

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Putin gives Snowden citizenship, Interpol elicits help in Do Kwon search and FTX US buys Voyager: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 25-Oct. 1

Coming every Saturday, Hodler’s Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.

Top Stories This Week

 

Pro-centralization Russian president grants citizenship to Edward Snowden: Report

Edward Snowden has reportedly received Russian citizenship via a decision from the country’s president, Vladimir Putin. Snowden has been a permanent resident in Russia since 2013 after he exposed secrets relating to the United States National Security Agency. However, Snowden favors less government involvement than Putin’s approach to leadership. Snowden has offered comment on crypto multiple times and helped build crypto asset Zcash.

 

Breaking: Interpol ‘Red Notice’ issued for Do Kwon — South Korea prosecutors

Global criminal police organization Interpol has put out an alert known as a Red Notice in order to help locate and arrest Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon, wherever he may be. Terra’s ecosystem fell apart earlier in 2022. Charges were brought against Kwon in South Korea for his involvement in the Terra project. Kwon has tweeted that he is not hiding. He was thought to be in Singapore, although Reuters reporting has indicated a possible change in location. Authorities in South Korea have also taken steps to freeze funds reportedly associated with Kwon.


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Bitcoin 2021 bull market buyers ‘capitulate’ as data shows 50% losses

Bitcoin's (BTC) spot trading below $20,000 is seeing a new “capitulation” event encompassing an entire year’s worth of buyers, research reveals.

In one of its Quicktake market updates on Sept. 29, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged intense selling by a large number of recent hodlers.

2021 bull market coins "have been sold aggressively"

As BTC/USD lingers near levels barely seen since 2020, it is not just miners feeling the pinch.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s Exchange Inflow Spent Output Ages Bands (SOAB), CryptoQuant contributor Edris showed that those who bought between April 2021 and April 2022 have been selling coins en masse — for less than they bought them.

“Looking at the chart, it is evident that coins aged between 6–18 months ago have been sold aggressively recently,” he concluded.

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