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Bitcoin (BTC) bulls fought for $31,000 on July 4 as a United States market closure offered the chance for volatility.

Bitcoin price "getting ready to rip higher"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action attempting to cement overnight gains.

These topped out near $31,400 before momentum waned, leaving BTC/USD still within a narrow trading range.

Despite no new yearly highs yet, market participants were bullish on lower timeframes based on recent behavior.

Trading suite Decentrader even argued that Bitcoin was “looking bullish across virtually all time frames” on one of its proprietary trading tools.

Bitcoin (BTC) lingered below $31,000 at the July 3 Wall Street open, with bulls still in need of a catalyst.

Bitcoin price: Sink or swim at $30,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD acting in a tight range following the weekly close.

BTC’s price performance remained firmly sideways into the new week, punctuated only by modest attempts at attacking the $31,000 mark.

More optimistic market participants hoped that nearby resistance levels — and not only for Bitcoin — would soon fall.

“The more frequently a resistance line is tested, the weaker it becomes,” trading team Stockmoney Lizards argued.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the first week of July with a sigh of relief for traders as $30,000 support holds. 

BTC price action refuses to succumb to bears after 20% gains in Q2, with weekly and monthly timeframes looking strong. What’s next?

A quiet week is expected on TradFi markets, with Wall Street gearing up for the Independence Day holiday and little in store in terms of United States macroeconomic data.

Bitcoin thus needs volatility triggers from elsewhere if bulls are to have a shot at breaching resistance in place for several months.

Views among market participants are mixed on the topic, as some believe that $32,000 and higher is easily achievable, while others consider this month the peak of Bitcoin’s 2023 recovery.

The stock market can offer valuable insights into possible Bitcoin (BTC) price movements, with a significant potential trigger expected this month.

Q2 earnings numbers due this month

Notably, Q2 earnings numbers are expected from some of the largest companies in the world in July, including:

The S&P 500 companies account for an aggregate $36.5 trillion in market capitalization, so it makes sense to expect a positive impact on Bitcoin’s price if the earnings season sustains modest growth.

In other words, investors’ appetite for risk-on assets will increase if the odds of an imminent recession are reduced.

Leverage to be avoided given the level of uncertainty

Traders calling for a global economic slowdown will have a chance to profit if those companies fail to deliver earnings growth, further adding uncertainty to the economies. Governments rely heavily on taxes from companies and consumers, so a weak earnings season represents a serious threat.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a narrow range for the past few days but that doesn’t take away the sheen from its stunning 84% rally in 2023. The strong recovery in Bitcoin’s price has boosted buying in several altcoins, which have risen sharply from their yearly lows.

As the second half of the year begins, the major question on every investor’s mind is, will the rally continue? CoinGlass data shows that July has seen only three negative monthly closes since 2013 and the biggest decline was 9.69% in 2014. This suggests that bulls have a slight edge.

A large part of the latest leg of the rally in Bitcoin and altcoins was fuelled by hopes that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission will approve one or more applications for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Any adverse news on this front could turn the sentiment bearish and result in a sharp sell-off.

However, for now, Bitcoin and select altcoins are showing strength. Let’s analyze the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may continue their up-move over the next few days.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin continues to trade near the stiff overhead resistance at $31,000. This suggests that the bulls are in no hurry to book profits as they anticipate another leg higher.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 12% in June, but one forecast sees the good times soon fading for bulls.

In a tweet on July 1, popular trader CryptoBullet admitted that July might not offer much more BTC price upside.

Trader: BTC price rally “likely” ending this month

Despite a last-minute dive, thanks to a macro news event, Bitcoin managed to close out the month of June in a solid position.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, TradingView and CoinGlass confirms that the monthly close came in at $30,465 on Bitstamp.

Those levels continue to hold into the weekend, with the past month marking Bitcoin’s best June performance since 2019.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $30,000 after the June 30 Wall Street open as markets panicked over the fate of its first spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Bureaucratic error may explain Bitcoin ETF filing hiccup

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action hurtling downward, briefly reaching $29,500.

The volatility accompanied a report that United States regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission had refused applications for the first Bitcoin spot-price ETF.

Those applications had kickstarted the latest BTC price rebound, one which had taken the largest cryptocurrency to new yearly highs.

Related: Why approving a Bitcoin ETF might unleash $18B in sell-pressure

The introduction of a spot-based Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) would make the asset more accessible to individual investors and mutual funds. What’s more, unlike a futures-based Bitcoin ETF, a spot-based ETF involves actually buying BTC.

So, will the approval of the first Bitcoin ETF be a bullish event? Not necessarily.

GBTC ‘discount’ remains in the double digits

Over the years, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected every Bitcoin ETF applicant, with the latest denial issued to the VanEck Bitcoin Trust on March 10, 2023.

The SEC concluded that the offer did not have a “comprehensive surveillance-sharing agreement with a regulated market of significant size related to spot Bitcoin.“ Regulators are hesitant to release what many believe would be a more equitable and transparent Bitcoin product. 

Investors now question whether the latest bids from ARK Invest and BlackRock to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs might be the solution to Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), an investment vehicle with shares traded on the stock exchange.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked through $31,000 on June 30 as a nearly $6 billion open interest expiry loomed.

Options expiry precedes day of BTC price triggers

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting local highs of $31,268 on Bitstamp before returning lower.

BTC price performance improved into a key quarterly options expiry event, the second largest in Bitcoin’s history, with analysts keen to see its effect on markets.

“Will be interesting to see how much is rolled over to future expirations and whether that OI is call or put dominant --> as that will impact how dealers hedge (buy or sell BTC),” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro wrote in part of associated commentary.

June 30 represents a key date for BTC traders all around, with the options expiry forming just one in a series of key events.

Bitcoin (BTC) aborted a fresh attempt to reach $31,000 on June 29, while traders waited for bulls to succeed.

BTC price “primed to launch”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action refusing to leave its short-timeframe trading range.

Now caught between $30,000 and $31,000, BTC/USD lacked impetus to continue the prior week’s uptrend or reverse downward.

For market participants, however, there was increasingly reason to believe that flipping higher resistance levels to support would come next.

“Bitcoin’s 2020 Fractal is still in play,” popular trader Jelle wrote in a Twitter update, arguing that Bitcoin was repeating its late 2020 breakout.

The $4.7 billion Bitcoin (BTC) monthly options expiry on June 30 might play a decisive role in determining whether the $30,000 price will consolidate as long-term support and open room for further bullish momentum.

Why is Bitcoin breaking yearly highs?

Many analysts consider Bitcoin's recent breakout above $27,000 a bet on the multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) request applications, including those of BlackRock and ARK Invest.

The news also fueled expectations for Grayscale to be able to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to a Bitcoin ETF.

 $31,000 caps Bitcoin price gains for now

On the other hand, Bitcoin bears will try to take advantage of macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds, including exchanges implementing mandatory Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures.

On June 28, KuCoin announced the upcoming KYC system upgrade in a move to increase compliance with global Anti-Money Laundering regulations.

Bitcoin (BTC) short-term holders are feeling the need to sell BTC at $30,000, data shows.

In research released on June 28, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode flagged tens of thousands of coins being sent to exchanges.

Bitcoin speculative exchange moves “intensifying”

BTC price action stalling at $30,000 is prompting a rethink when it comes to buyers who have turned a profit this month.

In particular, short-term holders (STHs) — those entities hodling funds for 155 days or less — are becoming increasingly keen sellers.

Monitoring inflows to exchange wallets, Glassnode revealed a clear spike in funds being put up for trade originating from STHs, which correspond to Bitcoin’s more speculative investor cohorts.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged another retest of $30,000 support on June 28 as the United States Federal Reserve stayed hawkish on inflation.

Powell on rate hikes: “More restriction coming”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action sticking to a narrow range at the Wall Street open.

This accompanied fresh comments on economic policy from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Speaking during a two-day discussion with other central bank heads at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2023 in Sintra, Portugal, Powell reiterated Fed consensus for further interest rate hikes this year.

Having paused the hiking cycle, which began in late 2021, this month, Powell nonetheless stressed that there was still room for further policy tightening.

The price of Ether (ETH) faced strong resistance at $1,920 after a 17.5% rally between June 15 and June 22. Several factors contributed to the limited upside, including worsening macroeconomic conditions, the regulatory cryptocurrency environment and weaker demand for decentralized applications (DApps) on the Ethereum network.

ETH price faces macroeconomic headwinds

On June 26, a federal judge denied a motion from Binance that could have stopped the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from issuing public statements related to the case.

In addition, in its mid-year outlook, HSBC Asset Management’s report warned of an economic downturn in the U.S. in the fourth quarter, followed by a “year of contraction and a European recession in 2024”. The report also noted that “corporate defaults have started to creep up.”

Finally, International Monetary Fund chief economist Gita Gopinath told CNBC on June 27 that central bankers should “continue tightening” by keeping interest rates high for longer than expected.

Ethereum network demand, gas fees drop

Usage of DApps on the Ethereum network failed to gain momentum as gas fees dropped 60%. Notably, the seven-day average transaction cost dropped to $3.7 on June 26, down from $9 four weeks prior.

Bitcoin (BTC) challenged $31,000 again after the June 27 Wall Street open as traders hoped for upside continuation.

$31,000 returns amid Fidelity Bitcoin ETF rumor

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action edging higher after holding $30,000 support.

The start of U.S. trading saw fresh positive news as asset manager Fidelity Investments reportedly prepared a filing to launch its Bitcoin spot-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).

"First it happens slowly, then all at once," financial commentator Tedtalksmacro wrote in part of a reaction, referring to existing ETF plans from largest global asset manager BlackRock and others.

Despite not yet repeating the rapid gains seen last week, BTC/USD preserved the majority of its progress, with commentators hopeful that bulls would come through.