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Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers have capitulated more than at almost any point in Bitcoin’s history this month.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the November 2022 BTC sell-off was the fourth-largest ever.

Bitcoin investors see multi-billion-dollar losses

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode got to grips with the impact of the FTX debacle on BTC investors.

The results have been mixed, it reveals, with a major loss of confidence, on one hand, triggering loss-making divestment of funds, while “strong accumulation” has also occurred.

For those entering BTC in current conditions, however, life has been anything but easy.

Chainlink (LINK) looks poised for a 25% price rally in the days leading up to its staking protocol launch, based on several fundamental and technical factors.

Chainlink’s price rallies ahead of staking launch

The staking feature, which will go live as v0.1 in beta mode on Dec. 6, comes as a part of the so-called “Chainlink Economics 2.0” that focuses on boosting LINK holders’ reward-earning opportunities for “helping increase the crypto economic security” of Chainlink’s oracle services.

Earlier, Chainlink users had to launch their own nodes to receive rewards in LINK tokens. The staking feature effectively opens new avenues for them to earn LINK rewards that could, in theory, boost demand for the token.

Additionally, demand for LINK’s parent platform, Chainlink, as an oracle service provider, should also increase.

David Gokhshtein, founder of blockchain-focused media company Gokhshtein Media, believes it could happen in the wake of the recent FTX collapse.

Bitcoin (BTC) held crucial $16,000 support into Nov. 29 as bulls weathered ongoing FTX fallout and macro triggers.

Trader teases BTC long as $16,500 reappears

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD leaving lower levels untouched overnight.

The pair had seen a flash downturn after the Nov. 27 weekly close thanks to uncertainty from China over COVID-19 measures.

A recovery nonetheless took the market higher, with $16,500 coming into play at the time of writing.

As Cointelegraph reported, traders and analysts had warned that it was all but essential to preserve current support, with a violation opening up the road to $14,000 or lower.

Being three weeks removed from the FTX collapse, Bitcoin (BTC) analysts are combing through data to decipher whether more selling will continue or if a bear market floor has been reached. 

One thing miners, short-term and long-term holders have in common is they are losing in the Bitcoin market right now.

According to on-chain analysis from Glassnode, the scale of both realized and unrealized losses amongst Bitcoin holders is one of the heaviest capitulation events in BTC’s history. Capitulation is hindering all groups from the increasing number of bankruptcies and dwindling miner revenue.

Bitcoin’s realized losses fourth largest on record while unrealized losses increase

November recorded $10.8 billion in 7-day realized losses for Bitcoin. The largest recorded realized loss in Bitcoin’s history is June 2022 when $19.8 billion was recorded. Such losses show that a large volume of Bitcoin has changed hands at discounted prices.

A popular crypto investing saying is “you cannot lose if you do not sell.” Unrealized losses track the entire Bitcoin market versus total market capitalization. The November 2022 56% unrealized loss is the largest in the current bear market. In 2014-2015, unrealized losses hit an all-time high for Bitcoin holders at 86%. The current unrealized losses are the fourth largest in Bitcoin’s history.

Bitcoin (BTC) bears have been in control since Nov. 11, subduing BTC price below $17,000 on every 12-hour candle. On Nov. 28, a drop to $16,000 shattered bulls' hope that the 7% gains between Nov. 21 and Nov. 24 were enough to mark a cycle low at $15,500.

The most likely culprit was an unexpected transfer of 127,000 BTC from a Binance cold wallet on Nov. 28. The huge Bitcoin transaction immediately triggered fear, uncertainty and doubt, but the Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, subsequently announced it was part of an auditing process.

Regulatory pressure has also been limiting BTC’s upside after reports on Nov. 25 showed that cryptocurrency lending firm Genesis Global Capital and other crypto firms were under investigation by securities regulators in the United States. Joseph Borg, director of the Alabama Securities Commission, confirmed that its state and several other states are investigating Genesis' alleged ties to securities laws violation.

On Nov. 16, Genesis announced it had temporarily suspended withdrawals, citing "unprecedented market turmoil." Genesis also hired restructuring advisers to explore all possible options, including but not limited to a potential bankruptcy, as reported by Cointelegraph on Nov. 23.

Let's look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered above $16,000 on the Nov. 28 Wall Street open as analysts diverged on what to expect from the next market move.

Bitcoin spot price near key support

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD maintaining the $16,000 support level at the time of writing amid misgivings over China’s impact on risk assets.

After a modestly higher weekly close, the pair still lacked volatility as one commentator warned of a “teleport” toward $12,000 should $16,000 break.

“When it breaks below 16k, it teleports to 12k-14k,” Il Capo of Crypto insisted.

Popular Twitter account Credible Crypto asked where the volatility had gone, while Crypto Tony likewise identified $16,000 as a line in the sand for his own trading strategy.

Bitcoin (BTC) prepares to exit a grim November just above $16,000 — what could be on the menu for BTC price this week?

In a time of what analyst Willy Woo has called “unprecedented deleveraging,” Bitcoin is far from out of the woods after losing over 20% this month.

The impact of the FTX implosion remains unknown, and warning signs continue to flow in even after the first wave of crypto business bankruptcies.

In particular this week, eyes are on miners, who are seeing profits squeezed by falling spot prices and surging hash rates.

Upheaval is in the air, and should another “capitulation” among miners occur, the entire ecosystem could be in for a further shock.

Bitcoin (BTC) millionaires are becoming an increasingly rare breed as numbers fall 80% in a year.

According to the latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, there are now just 23,000 wallets with a BTC balance worth $1 million or more.

1 year, 90,000 fewer million-dollar BTC wallets

In yet another indication of how far the crypto market has fallen since Bitcoin’s last all-time highs, Bitcoin millionaires have been seriously feeling the pinch.

Glassnode, which tracks multiple cohorts of BTC wallets, confirms that as of Nov. 25, there were 23,245 with a balance worth over $1 million.

Contrast that with the scene from Nov. 8, 2021, when the tally hit its peak as BTC/USD approached its latest $69,000 all-time high — then, there were 112,898 “millionaire” wallets.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range since Thanksgiving Nov. 24, as traders are uncertain about the next directional move. Usually, in a bear market, analysts tend to become uber-bearish and project targets that tend to scare away investors.

The failure of Bitcoin to start a strong recovery has given rise to several bearish targets, which extend up to $6,000 on the downside.

Although anything is possible in a bear market, traders who have a long-term view could try to accumulate fundamentally strong coins in several tranches. Because a bottom will only be confirmed in hindsight and trying to time it is usually a futile exercise.

In a bear market, all coins do not bottom at the same time. Hence, along with keeping an eye on the broader cryptocurrency market, traders should closely follow the coins of their choice.

The cryptocurrencies that lead the market out of the bear phase generally tend to do well when the next bull market begins. Let’s look at the charts of the cryptocurrencies that are trying to start an up-move in the short term.

Bitcoin (BTC) has spent over a year in a downtrend since its $69,000 all-time highs in November 2021.

BTC price performance has given investors up to 77% losses, but how much lower can BTC/USD really go?

Bitcoin traders and analysts have long agreed that 2022 is the year of the largest cryptocurrency’s newest bear market.

After coming off all-time highs to start the year at around $46,000, BTC/USD has offered little relief and has since returned to levels not seen since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

That has placed the pair in historical bear market bottom territory — having lost a maximum of around 77% since the most recent peak, Bitcoin could have little room left to fall.

Bitcoin (BTC) still risks a drop to below $7,000 in this bear market, the latest worst-case scenario prediction warns.

In its latest livestream broadcasted on Nov. 24, trading platform DecenTrader revealed targets for a BTC price bottom.

Analyst flags “oldschool, rock-hard support” for Bitc

The most recent in a series of BTC/USD forecasts, Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb mapped out a potential sub-$10,000 dip on the cards for the pair.

“In my worst case scenario, I think that would be probably where we end up, like oldschool, rock-hard support,” he said about a bidding zone around $6,500.

This is where buyers would “probably start refilling their bags,” he added, noting that that level was approximately double the 2018 bear market and March 2020 COVID-19 crash lows.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading near $16,500 since Nov. 23, recovering from a dip to $15,500 as investors feared the imminent insolvency of Genesis Global, a cryptocurrency lending and trending company. Genesis stated on Nov. 16 that it would “temporarily suspend redemptions and new loan originations in the lending business.” 

After causing initial mayhem in the markets, the firm refuted speculation of “imminent” bankruptcy on Nov. 22, although it confirmed difficulties in raising money. More importantly, Genesis' parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG) owns Grayscale — the asset manager behind Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which holds some 633,360 BTC.

Contagion risks from the FTX-Alameda Research implosion continue to exert negative pressure on the markets, but the industry is working to improve transparency and insolvency risks. For example, on Nov. 24, crypto derivatives exchange Bybit launched a $100 million fund to help market makers and high-frequency trading institutions struggling with financial or operational difficulties.

More recently, on Nov. 25, Binance published a Merkle Tree-backed proof of funds for its Bitcoin deposits. Moreover, the exchange outlined how users can use the mechanism to verify their holdings. There’s no doubt that centralized institutions must embrace transparency and insurance mechanisms to regain investors’ trust.

First, however, one must analyze Bitcoin derivatives markets to fully understand how professional traders are digesting such news.

Bitcoin (BTC) may follow stocks on a “massive bull run” as the weekly chart delivers a unique sign of strength.

The latest analysis from several well-known crypto names suggests it is time to give up the bear market narrative.

Despite everyone talking about a new macro BTC price low, possibly at $12,000, new perspectives demand a rethink.

Be it thanks to macro or just good old Bitcoin price cycles, there are three new reasons to flip bullish on Bitcoin in its current state near two-year lows.

Stocks rally could produce $110,000 BTC price

First in line is a theory involving a macro market catalyst, courtesy of macro analyst, Henrik Zeberg.

No matter if one analyzes Ether’s (ETH) longer-term or weekly time frame, there is little hope for bulls. Besides the negative 69% year-to-date performance, a descending channel has been pressuring the ETH price while offering resistance at $1,200.

Regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh down the sector. For example, Starling, a digital bank based in the United Kingdom, announced on Nov. 22 that it would no longer allow customers to send or receive money from digital asset exchanges or merchants. The bank described cryptocurrencies as “high risk and heavily used for criminal purposes.”

Other concerning news for the Ethereum ecosystem involved the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Aave, which suffered a short-seller attack on Nov. 22 aimed to profit from under-collateralized loans.

Curiously, a similar exploit happened on the Mango Markets DeFi application in October. Albeit not a direct attack on the Ethereum network, the attacker has shown critical flaws in some major decentralized collateral lending applications.

Furthermore, the Singapore-based cryptocurrency lender Hodlnaut is reportedly facing a police probe over allegations of cheating and fraud. The issues started on Aug. 8 after the lending firm cited a liquidity crisis and suspended withdrawals on the platform.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed undecided at the Nov. 24 Wall Street open as one trader reinforced a $12,000 BTC price target.

BTC price "main target" for bottom $12,000-$14,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $16,500 as an eerie calm continued on the market.

The pair nonetheless failed to convince analysts that better times were on the way, and popular commentator Il Capo of Crypto suggested that it was only a matter of time before downside resumed.

On both high timeframes (HTF) and low timeframes (LTF), the picture looked bleak.

“Htf: lower lows and lower highs after breaking a monthly redistribution range. Below June's low and at supply zone. Ltf: weak trend caused by a short squeeze (bull trap). Volume dying,” he summarized to Twitter followers on the day.

Bitcoin (BTC) exchanges may have just seen the largest exodus of user funds ever, data suggests.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that on Nov. 23, major exchanges were down almost 179,000 BTC in monthly withdrawals.

Major exchanges see record BTC withdrawals

With FTX contagion still in the air, exchange users have been busy withdrawing funds to noncustodial wallets.

As Cointelegraph reported, $3 billion worth of cryptocurrency left major platforms in the immediate aftermath of FTX imploding.

That trend is ongoing, Glassnode shows, with its data capturing the largest-ever decrease in exchange BTC reserves for the 30 days to Nov. 23.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a 7.3% drop between Nov. 20-21 as it tested the $15,500 support. While the correction seems small, the movement has caused $230 million in liquidations in futures contracts. Consequently, bulls using leverage came out ill-prepared for the $1.14 billion monthly options expiry on Nov. 25.

Bitcoin investors' sentiment worsened after Genesis Trading, which is part of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) conglomerate, halted payouts at its crypto lending arm on Nov. 16. More importantly, DCG owns the fund management company Grayscale, which is responsible for the largest institutional Bitcoin investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

Additionally, Bitcoin miner Core Scientific has warned of "substantial doubt" about its continued operations over the next 12 months given its financial uncertainty. In its quarterly report filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Nov. 22, the firm reported a net loss of $434.8 million inthe third quarter of 2022.

Meanwhile, New York Attorney General Letitia James addressed a letter to the members of U.S. Congress on Nov. 22 recommending barring the purchase of cryptocurrencies using funds in IRAs and defined contribution plans such as 401(k) and 457 plans.

Despite bulls' best efforts, Bitcoin has not been able to post a daily close above $17,000 since Nov. 11. This movement explains why the $1.14 billion Bitcoin monthly options expiry on Nov. 25 could benefit bears despite the 6% rally from the $15,500 bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) lingered near $16,500 at the Nov. 23 Wall Street open as United States markets awaited Thanksgiving cues.

Grayscale, GBTC still dominate crypto mood

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD shunning volatility after fresh two-year lows the day prior.

The pair left analysts guessing the day before U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, with crypto commentators still focused on Digital Currency Group (DCG).

Potential liquidity problems with DCG-owned Genesis Trading continued to agitate those already expecting further losses across Bitcoin and altcoins.

As Cointelegraph reported, concerns had already spread to doubt the future of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), the largest Bitcoin institutional investment vehicle with assets under management worth over $10 billion.