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Bitcoin traders await FOMC, Powell as BTC price hits new 1-month high

Bitcoin (BTC) set new one-month highs on the Dec. 14 Wall Street open on a day full of key events for the United States Federal Reserve.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin bullish with stocks into FOMC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $18,126 on Bitstamp, beating the $18,106 high from the day prior.

U.S. stocks edged higher as markets eagerly awaited feedback from the Fed after the November Consumer Price Index print showed inflation slowing beyond expectations.

Dec. 14 was set to see a decision on rate hikes for the month from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), together with a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The latter event tends to spark considerable volatility, with pundits closely scrutinizing Powell’s language for hints about longer-term economic policy.


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Comic-Con guru says storytelling is the key component for successful NFT projects

NFT Steez, a new weekly Cointelegraph podcast exploring nonfungible tokens and Web3 projects, spoke to Comic-Con legend Gareb Shamus about how he has used storytelling to build engagement and a “maker world” that grows and strengthens communities.

What started off as a newsletter about comics — Shamus’ passion project — ultimately became known to the world as Wizard magazine. According to Shamus, Wizard was an outlet where he could “create a voice” and share with his friends the things he had discovered that excited him.

Shamus touched on the importance of building elements of engagement and not limiting creativity within communities to further “unite them around what they love.” More importantly, he explained how building engagement allowed him to reach billions of people around the world in a way that made it “fun to be a fan of culture.”

According to him, there’s a natural synergy between comics and NFTs.

“We need to promote storytelling”

When asked about the role storytelling will play in the Kumite NFT project, Shamus explained that Web3 allows for greater participation and engagement whereby multiple stories, from multiple points of view, can be told and expressed. Shamus described Kumite NFT as bringing the hero’s journey to holders, and in this way, “everyone can be a hero in their journey.” 

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Bitcoin bear market 70% dip kills BTC ‘tourists’ as metric screams buy

Bitcoin (BTC) speculators have disappeared from the market and their mood “destroyed,” says popular analyst Philip Swift.

In a tweet on Dec. 14, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader flagged potential maximum risk returns for BTC at current prices.

Swift: “Euphoria destroyed” from Bitcoin bear market

BTC/USD is around 70% below its last all-time highs, and the drawdown has flushed out many short-term investors.

The FTX scandal precipitated an even stronger capitulation, one which is ongoing as its after-effects see nervous investors panic.

For Swift, signs that speculator “euphoria” is now gone from Bitcoin come in the form of the popular HODL Waves metric.

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Ethereum rallies to $1,350, but derivatives metrics remain neutral to bearish

Ether (ETH) rallied 6.3% to $1,350 on Dec. 13, mimicking a similar failed attempt that took place on Nov. 10. Despite reaching the highest level in 33 days, the gains were not enough to instill confidence in traders according to two key derivatives metrics.

Ether/USD price index, 12-hour. Source: TradingView

Bulls' frustrations can partially be explained by Binance exchange facing a near-record $1.1 billion in withdrawals over a 24-hour period. The unusual behavior comes as Binance attempts to put out multiple disputes about its proof of reserves and overall solvency on crypto Twitter. According to Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, the social media posts amount to nothing more than FUD.

However, Binance's USD Coin (USDC) reserves were emptied after alleged troubles with commercial banking hours.

The negative newsflow continued on Dec. 13, as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed charges against Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of now-bankrupt FTX crypto exchange. The fresh charges come just a day after his arrest by Bahamian authorities at the request of the U.S. government.

On Dec. 13, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also filed a lawsuit against Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX and Alameda Research, claiming violations of the Commodity Exchange Act and it demanded a jury trial.

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Is DeFi back? GMX rallies toward all-time high and LOOKS price gains 30%

In a recent blog post, cryptocurrency legend and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes mentioned he holds sizable bags of GMX and LOOKS tokens. According to Hayes, his main reasoning for investing in both tokens was their platform revenue and the potential of both assets to outperform standard treasury bills. 

Let’s take a brief look at on-chain data and compare GMX and LOOKS to competitors to determine whether Arthur’s assumption will work out. 

GMX usage cooling after a strong November

The week prior to Nov. 16 provided decentralized Finance (DeFi) with a significant influx in fees after the centralized exchange (CEX) exodus triggered by FTX’s bankruptcy. The temporary high inflows to DeFi propelled GMX to outperform Uniswap in protocol fees.

On Nov. 28, GMX earned about $1.15 million in daily trading fees, which surpassed Uniswap’s $1.06 million in trading fees on the same day.

GMX fees and daily active users. Source: Token Terminal

While usage of GMX may be decreasing, the token is outperforming the industry. The GMX token is only 8% away from an all-time high after gaining 59% in the past 30-days.

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Can Bitcoin survive a Carrington Event knocking out the grid?

“In a massive solar storm, which would be hugely damaging to a modern economy’s infrastructure, the blockchain parts might well be the only parts that survive.” — Jason Potts

What was the Carrington Event?

In a November 1859 meeting of the Royal Astronomical Society, British astronomer Richard Christopher Carrington reported to the esteemed scientific body that “in the forenoon of Thursday, Sept. 1, in taking my customary observation of the forms and positions of the solar spots, an appearance was witnessed which I believe to be exceedingly rare.”

The phenomenon caused brilliant auroras across the globe, some as far south as Cuba, that were so bright observers were able to read newspapers by their light at night.

Carrington Event model. Source: NASA

It was the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, likely the result of a coronal mass ejection from the sun colliding with the Earth’s magnetosphere — and one with worrying implications for the cryptocurrency industry were it to happen again today. A storm of such intensity would have the potential to affect the majority of electrical systems in use today: satellites, internet service providers, power supplies and all forms of communication.

The geomagnetic disturbances were so strong that telegraph operators in the United States reported sparks leaping from their equipment, which in some cases even caught fire. Telegraph systems across Europe and North America failed.

Carrington Event model from NASA
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Bitcoin sees CPI volatility as lower inflation sends BTC price to $18K

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new one-month highs on Dec. 13 as United States inflation data sent a surge of optimism through markets.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price rebounds aU.S. inflation slows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $18,105 on Bitstamp after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for November came in below expectations.

The readout, dubbed the “most important” of the year, even beat analysts’ expectations on inflation slowing.

November CPI was 7.1% year-on-year, compared to the 7.3% forecast. Month-on-month was 0.1% versus the 0.3% expected.

"The all items index increased 7.1 percent for the 12 months ending November; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending December 2021," an accompanying press release confirmed.

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Binance exchange daily BTC withdrawals top $500M as CZ says ‘FUD helps us grow’

Bitcoin (BTC) withdrawals from largest crypto exchange Binance have passed $500 million in the past 24 hours as its CEO calls out “FUD.”

Data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass shows that Binance’s BTC balance decreased by over 30,000 BTC into Dec. 13.

CZ: FUD is “thoroughly annoying”

The latest hotspot for fallout from the FTX debacle, Binance has joined exchanges seeing an exodus of user funds.

According to Coinglass, users withdrew 30,300 BTC ($515 million) in the 24 hours to the time of writing, this accounting for the majority of the week’s 40,150 BTC total.

The abnormal behavior comes as Binance battles what its CEO, Changpeng Zhao (also known as CZ) blanketed as “FUD” on social media.

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What is a golden cross pattern and how does it work?

A golden cross pattern on the charts excites crypto traders for its promises of profitable opportunities ahead, largely due to its impressive success rate in traditional markets.

The golden cross tends to precede sustained uptrends in contrast with the bearish death cross pattern. For instance, since 1970, the S&P 500 has been returning about 15% gains on average in less than a year after a golden cross’ occurrence.

The golden cross’ record in the benchmark crypto asset Bitcoin (BTC) is similarly impressive. Notably, the indicator has appeared seven times on Bitcoin daily charts since 2010, out of which five have led to massive bull runs.

What is a golden cross pattern?

Before discussing the golden cross, let’s discuss its core component known as moving averages (MAs).

A moving average records the average change in an asset’s price over a specific period. Mathematically, they are measured after adding a set of prices (recorded in a fixed timeframe such as hourly, four-hour, daily, weekly, monthly, etc.) — and by dividing the sum by the number of prices in the set.

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Bitcoin’s bear market is far from over, but data points to improving investor sentiment

2022 was a near-unprecedented year of extremes and black swan events for the crypto market, and now that the year is about to wrap up, analysts are reflecting on the lessons learned and attempting to identify the trends which may point to bullish price action in 2023. 

The collapse of Terra Luna, Three Arrows Capital and FTX created a credit crunch, a severe reduction in capital inflows and an increased threat that additional major centralized exchanges could collapse.

Despite the severity of the market downturn, a few positives have emerged. Data shows long-term hodlers and smaller-sized wallets are actively accumulating during this period of low volatility.

While the market continues to see red, positives are emerging.

Let’s dive in on the positive and negative data points.

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Bitcoin traders cross fingers in hopes that a positive Fed meeting triggers a run to $18K

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break above the $17,250 resistance on Dec. 11 and subsequently faced a 2.2% correction. More importantly, the last daily close above this level was over 30 days ago — reinforcing the thesis of size sellers near the $330 billion market capitalization mark.

Curiously, this valuation level is slightly behind Palladium, the world's 23rd most valuable traded asset with a $342 billion capitalization. So from one side, Bitcoin bulls have some reasons to celebrate because the price recovered 10% from the $15,500 low on Nov. 21, but bears still have the upper hand on a larger time frame since BTC is down 64% year-to-date.

Two events are expected to determine traditional finance investors' fate, as the United States consumer price index is expected onDec. 13 and U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will announce the size of the next interest rate hike on Dec. 14. Powell’s press conference will also be anxiously awaited by investors.

In the cryptocurrency markets, there is mild relief stemming from exchanges' proof of reserves, although several analysts have criticized the limited details of each report.

Derivatives exchange Bybit was the latest addition to the transparency initiative, allowing users to self-verify their deposits using Merkle Trees, according to a Dec. 12 announcement.

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BTC price shakes off Binance 'FUD' as analysts eye Q1 2023 Bitcoin bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed steady near $17,000 at the Dec. 12 Wall Street open as news involving Binance failed to spark BTC price downside.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Factors line up to "scare" Bitcoin trade

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD avoiding fresh volatility as United States markets opened.

Having traded sideways throughout the weekend, the pair offered few cues to analysts, who were waiting for U.S. macroeconomic data to shake up the status quo.

This, in the form of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, would nonetheless be a pivotal moment for crypto assets, they agreed, with the potential for significant upside and downside hinging on the numbers, due Dec. 13.

Subsequent events involving the Federal Reserve would equally shape price performance, they said.

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What is a Doji candle pattern and how to trade with it?

The Doji candlestick, also called a Doji star, shows indecision between buyers and sellers in the crypto market. This type of candlestick is confirmed on a technical analysis chart when the opening and closing prices are almost identical.

What is a Doji pattern on the candlestick chart?

In simple terms, a Doji shows that an asset's buyers and sellers offset each other. In doing so, any attempts to push up the price by the buyers get thwarted by the sellers. Similarly, efforts to crash the prices from the sellers' end get foiled by the buyers.

Ultimately, both parties bring the price to a pivot level. So, for example, when Bitcoin (BTC) opens and closes at $20,000 on a particular day even if its price seesawed between $25,000 and $15,000 throughout the given24-hour period.

Doji candlestick illustration

So the $25,000 price level — or the intraday high — represents the Doji's upper wick, and the $15,000 price level — the intraday low — represents the candlestick's lower wick.

How does a Doji candle work?

Doji candlesticks have historically helped traders predict market bottoms and tops as a calm before the storm of sorts.

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'Biggest week of the year' — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts one of the most important macro weeks of the year in a precarious position below $17,000.

After its latest weekly close, BTC/USD showed little upward momentum prior to the Dec. 12 Wall Street open.

With volatility yet to appear, the largest cryptocurrency continues to trade in a narrow range, and analysts are increasingly impatient for new catalysts.

These, they agree, should come in the next few days — United States economic data is due, and its content and impact on economic policy will likely have a significant impact on crypto markets.

Elsewhere, the uneasy status quo continues — Bitcoin miners are struggling, sentiment lacks inspiration and traders are increasingly drawing comparisons to the pits of previous bear markets.

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Bitcoin’s boring price action allows XMR, TON, TWT and AXS to gather strength

The relief rally in the United States equities markets took a breather this week as all major averages closed in the red. Traders seem to have booked profits before the busy economic calendar next week.

The S&P 500 index dropped 3.37%, but a minor positive for the cryptocurrency markets is that Bitcoin (BTC) has not followed the equities markets lower. This suggests that crypto traders are not panicking and dumping their positions with every downtick in equities.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

The range-bound action in Bitcoin suggests that traders are avoiding large bets before the Federal Reserve’s rate hike decision on Dec. 14. However, that has not stopped the action in select altcoins, which are showing promise in the near term.

Let’s look at the charts of Bitcoin and select altcoins and spot the critical levels to watch out for in the short term.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin has been hovering around its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $17,031 for the past few days. The flat 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near 50 do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.

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SBF 'didn't like' decentralized Bitcoin — ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood

Bitcoin (BTC) is too “decentralized and transparent” for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, says Cathie Wood.

In a tweet on Dec. 10, Wood, who is CEO of investment giant ARK Invest, delivered a fresh damning appraisal of the FTX saga.

Wood: SBF "couldn't control" Bitcoin

As the legal ramifications of FTX and Bankman-Fried, also known as SBF, continue, Bitcoin loyalists are giving him little sympathy.

ARK’s Wood is now firmly among them, not mincing her words as BTC price action continues to trade around 20% down over the month.

“The Bitcoin blockchain didn’t skip a beat during the crisis caused by opaque centralized players,” she wrote.

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Goldman Sachs buying crypto firms, FTX news, 3AC and Celsius updates: Hodler’s Digest Dec. 4-10

Top Stories This Week

7 class action lawsuits have been filed against SBF so far, records show

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has been named in seven class action lawsuits filed since the fall of his crypto empire. These lawsuits, however, are separate from the numerous probes and investigations examining the crypto exchange and its founder, including a reported market manipulation probe by federal prosecutors. Another headline shows the United States House of Representatives has called on SBF to speak at a hearing on Dec. 13. Amid investigations by lawmakers and a flurry of civil litigation, SBF hired former federal prosecutor Mark Cohen to act as his defense attorney. A team of financial forensic investigators was also hired by FTX’s new management to track down the billions of dollars worth of missing customer crypto.

3AC subpoenas issued as dispute grows over claims of Terraform dump

An order signed by a federal judge overseeing the bankruptcy proceedings of Three Arrows Capital has authorized subpoenas for the company’s former leadership, including co-founders Su Zhu and Kyle Davies. Under the authorized subpoenas, Zhu and Davies are required to hand over any “recorded information, including books, documents, records, and papers” related to the firm’s financial affairs or property. The founders will not be served on Twitter, as previously required by the advisory firm and liquidator in this case, Teneo.

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Bitcoin price liquidation risk increases as BTC struggles to reclaim $18K

Bitcoin (BTC) price had a mixed reaction on Dec. 9 after the November report on United States producer prices showed a 7.4% increase versus 2021. The data suggested that wholesale costs continued to rise and inflation may last longer than investors had previously believed. Oil prices are also still a focus for investors, with crude WTI hitting a new yearly low at $71.10 on Dec. 8. 

The United States Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, sustained the 104.50 level, but the index traded at 104.10, a 5-month low on Dec. 4. This signals low confidence in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to curb inflation without causing a significant recession.

Trader gutsareon noted that the choppy activity caused leverage longs and shorts to be liquidated, but it was followed by a failed tentative dump below $17,050.

According to the analysis, the open interest stagnation on futures contracts indicated low confidence from bears.

Regulatory uncertainty could have played a key role in limiting Bitcoin's upside. On Dec. 8, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued new guidance that could see publicly traded companies disclose their exposure to crypto assets.

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Bitcoin bulls protect $17K as trader eyes key China BTC price catalyst

Bitcoin (BTC) maintained $17,000 support into Dec. 10 ahead of a critical week of macro data.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

CPI print will make Fed "slow down"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it traded sideways after the close of trading on Wall Street.

The pair looked set for a quiet weekend, with all eyes focused on United States inflation readings and policy updates due from Dec. 13 onward.

With the Producer Price Index (PPI) November print behind it, the month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) results took center stage.

As Cointelegraph reported, expectations remain that CPI will show U.S. inflation continuing to abate, sparking renewed strength in risk assets, including crypto.

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Data shows the Bitcoin mining bear market has a ways to go

Bitcoin (BTC) mining is the backbone of the BTC ecosystem and miners’ returns also provide insight into BTC’s price movements and the health of the wider crypto sector.

It is well-documented that Bitcoin miners are struggling in the current bear market. Blockstream, a leading Bitcoin miner recently raised funds at a 70% discount.

Current mining activity shares similarities to historic BTC bear markets with a few caveats.

Let’s explore what this means for the current Bitcoin cycle.

Analysis shows that based on previous cycles the bear market may continue

Bitcoin mining profitability can be measured by taking the miner’s revenue per kilowatt hour (kWh). According to Jaran Mellerud, a Bitcoin analyst for Hashrate Index, a BTC mining bear market has a sustained period of revenue per kWh of less than $0.25. Under his assumption, he calculates using the most efficient Bitcoin mining machine on the market.

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