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Bitcoin (BTC) hugged $22,000 on July 19 as macro conditions slowly turned to favor risk assets. 

Stocks, crypto rise as dollar weakens

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD cooling volatility immediately below the crucial 200-week moving average (WMA).

The Wall Street open saw further gains for United States equities in the face of a declining U.S. dollar, which extended its retracement after hitting its latest two-decade peak.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stood at around 106.5 at the time of writing, down 2.6% from the high seen July 14.

For Bitcoin analysts, it was thus a case of wait and see as markets bided their time between buy and sell levels.

ApeCoin (APE) rallied to start the week as traders considered Yuga Labs’ decision to open its Otherside metaverse for selected users. In doing so, the token broke out of a technical pattern that hints at another 45% price rally by September 2022.

Otherside metaverse euphoria

APE’s price surged by almost 23.5% week-to-date to reach $6.12 a token on July 19.

The weekly gains came as a part of a rally that started on July 16. Interestingly, Yuga Labs invited 4,300 players of its Otherside gaming metaverse for a demo — and the tour of its Bored Ape avatar online platform — on the day of APE’s rally.

That suggests traders purchased APE after taking cues from the Otherside update, given it serves as a governance token at ApeCoin DAO. This decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) powers the ecosystem of apps and services deployed by Yuga Labs and third-party brands, including Otherside.

APE price eyes 45% rally

The Otherside euphoria has also prompted APE to exit a technical setup called the ascending triangle.

“When will it end?” is the question that is on the mind of investors who have endured the current crypto winter and witnessed the demise of multiple protocols and investment funds over the past few months.

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) once again finds itself testing resistance at its 200-week moving average and the real challenge is whether it can push higher in the face of multiple headwinds or if the price will trend down back into the range it has been trapped in since early June.

According to the most recent newsletter from on-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode, "duration" is the main difference between the current bear market and previous cycles and many on-chain metrics are now comparable to these historical drawdowns.

One metric that has proven to be a reliable indicator of bear market bottoms is realized price, which is the value of all Bitcoin at the price they were bought divided by the number of BTC in circulation.

As shown on the chart above, with the exception of the flash crash in March 2020, Bitcoin has traded below its realized price for an extended period of time during bear markets.

Bitcoin's (BTC) price is down 56% year-to-date, but the correction was not strong enough to remove the digital asset from the list of top-20 global tradable assets. Bitcoin’s current $400 billion market capitalization stands higher than traditional companies like Exxon Mobil, Walmart and Procter & Gamble, but there’s always the question of whether a direct comparison between a commodity like Bitcoin and equities is valid. 

Analysts and investors favoring stocks constantly remind crypto advocates that Exxon Mobil posted $25.79 billion in earnings over the past 12 months, as a justifying example of its valuation. But on the flip side, earnings don’t necessarily explain how Boeing booked $16.1 billion losses in two years, even as it holds an $87.1 billion market capitalization.

Measuring a commodity market value can be tricky. For example, in the case of silver, only 50% of precious metal is used in industrial applications. There are individuals and companies holding the asset for investment in the form of bars, coins, or jewelry and these are not "productive" revenue-generating assets.

Bitcoin’s value is vastly inferior to gold’s $11.2 trillion market capitalization, but what does “$400 billion” even mean, and how does it compare to broader asset classes such as global equities, real estate and debt markets?

Was the Bitcoin “digital gold” thesis wrong?

The first question one should ask is: Has gold been a good store of value over the past five years? To find answers, traders have to compare its price against other trillion-dollar asset classes like global equities, oil and real estate. The overall goal for any store of value is to maintain the purchasing power, regardless of price fluctuations during the period.

Crypto traders found cause for celebration on July 18 as the total market capitalization climbed back above the $1 trillion mark following weeks of widespread selling after Bitcoin (BTC) price swept yearly lows below $18,000.

The green day for cryptocurrencies largely tracks a positive day in the traditional markets, which are up modestly despite analyst estimates that the Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 27.

While traders will welcome July 18's positive price action, many analysts caution that the upswing is nothing more than a bear market pump. Let's take a look at the current top performers.

Bitcoin holds a 16% gain

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that over the past week, Bitcoin has rallied significantly and at the time of writing BTC holds a 16% weekly gain from its recent low at $18,907.

The top cryptocurrency now finds itself running square into the resistance found at its 200-week moving average, which also happens to be the upper bound of the trading range BTC has been trapped in since the middle of June.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered at $22,000 at the July 18 Wall Street open as analysts warned that bulls would not break resistance in one go.

Can Bitcoin win back bear market support?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD returning to consolidate after hitting highs of $22,500 on Bitstamp.

That level represented the start of sell-side positions on exchanges clustered around the 200-week moving average (WMA), a key area which commentators argued would be hard to crack.

"Not expecting continuation on Bitcoin, at this point, as we're facing 200-Week MA & range resistance," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe told Twitter followers in his latest update.

Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital, as others, was also skeptical about the potential for Bitcoin to continue upward momentum immediately.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week nearing key resistance as the shock of the latest United States inflation data passes — can the strength continue?

The July 17 weekly close may have been practically identical to the last, but BTC/USD is showing some much-needed strength prior to the July 18 Wall Street open.

Last week was a testing time for crypto hodlers everywhere, with inflation dictating the mood across risk assets and the U.S. dollar capping the gloomy atmosphere. With those pressures now easing — at least temporarily — the mood has room to relax.

At the same time, on-chain data suggests that now is a make-or-break moment for Bitcoin miners, and capitulation across the market feels close.

As talk over where Bitcoin’s macro bottom could lie continues, Cointelegraph takes a look at several factors primed to shape BTC price performance in the coming days.

A July 9 post by @PricedinBTC on the "cost to mine Bitcoin" in the United States gathered the crypto community's attention, especially considering the recent headlines that BTC miners have made. The crypto bear market and growing energy costs have caused a perfect storm for the mining sector and this has led some companies to lay off employees and others to defer all capital expenditures. Some went as far as raising concerns of Bitcoin miners hitting a “death spiral.”

However, Raymond Nasser, the CEO of Arthur Mining, a professional mining company operating in the United States told Cointelegraph that their margins don't full concur with the data from @PricedinBTC.

Arthur Mining's current capacity is 25 megawatts (MW) and the company focuses on environmentally friendly energy sources. At first, one could dismiss their numbers as listed companies like Marathon Digital Holdings have 300 MW plants, but these rely on the traditional grid energy — even if a portion of the power originates from hydro-electric plants.

To achieve the best environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices, the smaller scale mining operations utilize undervalued flare and stranded gas from the oil and gas industry. Their secret is mobile Bitcoin mining facilities, tapping greener, more efficient and more profitable energy sources compared to traditional solutions.

Regarding the $16,000 production cost for miners, Nasser said:

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) saw a modest pullback on July 17 after ramming into a critical technical resistance confluence.

Merge-led Ethereum price breakout

ETH's price dropped by 1.8% to $1,328 after struggling to move above two strong resistance levels: the 50-day exponential moving average (5-day EMA; the red wave) and a descending trendline (black) serving as a price ceiling since May.

Previously, Ether rallied by over 40% from $1,000 on July 13 to over $1,400 on July 16. The jump appeared partly due to euphoria surrounding "the Merge" slated for September.

Meanwhile, a golden cross's appearance on Ethereum's four-hour chart also boosted Ether's upside sentiment among technical analysts.

ETH price risks fakeout

Ether's 40%-plus price rally since July 13 also had its price break above a critical horizontal resistance that somewhat constitutes an "ascending triangle pattern."

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked to one-week highs on July 17 amid warnings that traders should not trust current BTC price action.

Binance inflows see multi-week high

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $21,600 on Bitstamp, its best performance since last Sunday. 

The pair saw a fresh leg up during the weekend, this nonetheless coming on the back of thin, retail-driven "out-of-hours" liquidity with institutions out of the picture.

With Bitcoin prone to "fakeout" moves both up and down in such conditions, there was thus little appetite to believe that current trajectory would endure as the weekly close loomed.

"Don't let CT noise change your vision of how things really are," popular social media account, Il Capo of Crypto, told followers on the day, referencing Crypto Twitter narratives.

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated higher on July 16 after the Wall Street trading week finished with modest gains for United States equities.

Can Bitcoin bulls reclaim the 200-week moving average?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD ranging between $20,500 and $21,000 into the weekend.

The pair thus preserved the majority of its comeback from the week's lows, these following shock U.S. inflation data and sparking weakness across risk assets.

Now, out-of-hours trading meant that the classic scenario of breakouts and fakeouts on thin liquidity could accompany Bitcoin into the weekly close.

Eyeing order book data from Binance, the largest global exchange by volume, showed key resistance clustered around the $22,000 mark should bulls attempt to nudge the market higher.

The price of Lido DAO (LDO) dropped heavily a day after its key momentum oscillator crossed into "overbought" territory.

LDO undergoes overbought correction

LDO's price plunged to as low as $1.04 on July 16 from $1.32 on July 15, amounting to a 20%-plus decline. The token's sharp downside move took its cues from multiple bearish technical indicators, including its daily relative strength index (RSI) and its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA).

LDO's latest plunge came after it rallied over 150% in just two weeks, a move that simultaneously pushed its daily RSI above 70 on July 15, thus turning it overbought. 

An overbought RSI signals that the rally may be nearing an end while readying for a short-term pullback.

Meanwhile, more downside cues for the Lido DAO token came from its 100-day EMA (the black wave in the chart above) near $1.30, which capped LDO from extending its 150% price rally.

There’s no rest for the weary during a bear market, and the Crypto Fear and Greed index shows that investor sentiment has been stuck in a state of "extreme fear" for a record 70 consecutive days.

As the market looks for a catalyst to reverse the trend, there is little on the horizon besides the Ethereum (ETH) Merge that seems capable of sparking a rally. If that is indeed the case, the market could continue to trend down or sideways until the tentative Merge date of September 19.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Ether price remains sandwiched in the trading zone it has been trading in since June 13 and it is currently running into the upper resistance near $1,240.

With the Merge still a couple of months away and little else on the roadmap for Ethereum in the near term, here’s what analysts are saying to watch out for.

Ether now trades above its moving averages

A short message of hope at this significant level of resistance was provided by futures trader Peter Brandt, who posted the following chart and simply stated “Maybe baby $ETH.”

At the moment, liquidity is hard to come by, but crypto traders and protocols still need inflow and revenue to remain functional.

As the crypto winter drags on, savvy crypto investors have realized that one of the reliable sources of passive income that still exists can be found on protocols that generate revenue and share some of it with their respective communities.

Let's take a look at some of the protocols that continue to thrive in the current down market.

DeFi might be dead, but platforms with revenue will thrive

Data from Token Terminal shows revenue positive platforms are primarily the nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces like LooksRare and OpenSea.

Aside from a few select protocols including MetaMask, Decentral Games, Axie Infinity and Ethereum Name Service, the majority of the remaining protocols with the highest revenue are decentralized finance platforms, showing that while DeFi is down, it's not out of the game.

The latest Uniswap (UNI) chart pattern suggests that investors should be prepared for a correction after gaining nearly 20% over the past week.

A 45% UNI price crash ahead?

UNI's price has been trending upward since mid-June inside what appears to be a "rising wedge," which traditional analysts view as a bearish reversal pattern due to its history of luring bulls into buying fake-out bounces.

Therefore, rising wedges resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline. Traders typically calculate a rising wedge's downside target by subtracting the distance between its upper and lower trendline from the breakdown point.

That puts UNI's downside target at $3.8 by September 2022, down 45% from July 15's price if the breakdown begins near $6.52. However, the target would shift upward to $4.65 if the breakdown originates at the apex, i.e., where the wedge's trendlines converge, resulting in a drop of 32.25% from July 15's price

Interestingly, a rising wedge also formed between February and April. The pattern snapped a 65% upside move, with a broader 70% price slump that took UNI's value to $3.56 per unit from around $12.50.

Bitcoin (BTC) may have avoided fresh losses since falling to $17,600 last month, but the sentiment is on the floor.

Now, one classic crypto market mood gauge is showing just how long and hard the average investor has suffered.

70 days of "extreme fear"

While crypto market sentiment was already "comparable to funeral" before the start of 2022, the subsequent price drawdown in Bitcoin and altcoins produced cold feet like never before.

This has now been quantified by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a tool that takes multiple sources into account to create an overall score of how the markets are feeling. 

As of July 15, Fear & Greed has spent 70 days in its lowest bracket — "extreme fear" — marking of a new bearish record.