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Bitcoin (BTC) could undergo a massive price recovery in the coming months, based on an indicator that marked the 2015 and 2018 bear market bottoms.

What's the Bitcoin Pi Cycle bottom indicator? 

Dubbed "Pi Cycle bottom," the indicator comprises a 471-day simple moving average (SMA) and a 150-period exponential moving average (EMA). Furthermore, the 471-day SMA is multiplied by 0.745; the outcome is pitted against the 150-day EMA to predict the underlying market's bottom.

Notably, each time the 150-period EMA has fallen below the 471-period SMA, it has marked the end of a Bitcoin bear market.

For instance, in 2015, the crossover coincided with Bitcoin bottoming out near $160 in January 2015, followed by an almost 12,000% bull run toward $20,000 in December 2017.

Similarly, the second 150-471 MA crossover in history marked the end of the 2018 bear cycle. It also followed a 2,000% price rally — from nearly $3,200 in December 2018 to $69,000 in November 2021.

Bitcoin (BTC) carried through threats of new local lows July 12 as the White House warned of “highly elevated” inflation.

White House warns ahead of "decisive day"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $19,500 prior to the Wall Street open, down over 4% on the day.

Having failed to hold $20,300 support, the pair appeared to react badly to comments on the inflation outlook from White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

Markets were already primed for higher than expected figures for June from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which made new forty-year highs in May.

“So on Wednesday, we will have new CPI inflation data, and we expect the headline number, which includes gas and food, to be highly elevated, mainly because gas prices were so elevated in June,” she told reporters at a press briefing July 11.

From a historical perspective, the loss in value realized across the cryptocurrency market over the past several months has been one for the record books and the total cryptocurrency market cap has declined from $3 trillion to $991 million. 

June was especially painful for investors after the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell nearly 40% to mark one of its worst calendar months on record according to a recent report from cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital.

In light of the strong market correction, a number of BTC price and on-chain metrics have begun to reach levels similar to those seen during previous market bottoms, but this doesn’t mean traders should expect a turnaround anytime soon because history shows that periods of weakness can drag on for months on end.

Macro headwinds weigh on BTC price

One of the most significant factors weighing on cryptocurrencies and other risk assets has been the strength of the United States dollar.

Combined with rising inflation and falling economic indicators, DXY strength is a signal that an economic slowdown is all but inevitable, with forecasts now predicting a recession in early to mid-2023.

The upcoming Ethereum (ETH) Merge is one of the most talked about developments in the cryptocurrency ecosystem as the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap undergoes the difficult transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS). 

One protocol whose fate is largely tied to the successful completion of the Merge is Lido DAO (LDO), a liquid staking platform that allows users to tap into the value of their assets for use in decentralized finance and earn yield from staking.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that since LDO hit a low of $0.42 on June 30, its price has climbed 107.6% to hit a daily high of $0.874 on July 9, but at the time of writing the altcoin has pulled back to $0.65.

Three reasons for the sharp turnaround for LDO include the successful Merge on the Sepolia testnet, the continued increase in Ether deposits on the platform and the slow recovery of staked Ether (stETH) price in comparison to Ether's spot price.

Sepolia testnet merge

Migrating to proof-of-stake has been a challenging process, but it came one step closer to completion on July 6 with the successful Merge of the PoW and PoS chains on Ethereum’s Sepolia testnet.

In the most recent episode, Comic-Con legend, Gareb Shamus discusses how he has used storytelling to build engagement and a “maker world” that grows and strengthens communities.

What started off as a newsletter about comics, founder Gareb Shamus’ passion project, ultimately became known to the world as a magazine titled Wizard. According to Shamus, Wizard  was the outlet in which he could “create a voice” and share with his friends the things he had discovered that excited him.

Shamus touched on the importance of building elements of engagement and not limiting creativity within communities to further “unite them around what they love.” More importantly, he explains how building engagement allowed him to reach billions of people around the world in a way that made it “fun to be a fan of culture.”

There’s a natural synergy between comics and nonfungible tokens (NFTs), a topic discussed in great depth in this week’s episode of NFT Steez, a bi-weekly Twitter Space that explores the intersection of NFTs, culture and all things Web3-related.

“We need to promote storytelling”

When asked about the role storytelling will play in the Kumite NFT project, Shamus explained that Web3 allows for greater participation and engagement whereby multiple stories, from multiple points of view can be told and expressed. In launching Kumite NFT, Shamus describes that it brings the hero's journey to holders and in this way, “everyone can be a hero in their journey.” 

Bitcoin (BTC) headed for $20,000 after the July 11 Wall Street open amid fresh warnings to “prepare for new lows.”

$20,300 eyed as next support zone to hold

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD failing to recover losses that had immediately followed the weekly close at $20,850.

The pair had nonetheless locked in its best week’s gains since March, these nonetheless apt to unravel as market uncertainty lingered.

For on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators, the level to watch was a trendline acting as support since June.

“BTC fell back below the 21-ay Moving Average after the Sunday close,” it wrote in a summation-like Twitter post alongside a heatmap of buy and sell interest on major exchange Binance.

Solana (SOL) still has room to fall in the near term, but SOL/USD can rally 5,000% if it follows in the footsteps of its top rival Ethereum. 

That Ethereum 2018 fractal

SOL risks dropping to $15 on anticipations it would behave like Ethereum during the market crash in 2018.

Notably, Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) price fell to nearly $79 in December 2018 after undergoing a 95% correction earlier that year from its peak of $1,529. Afterward, it underwent a long recovery, rising nearly 6,000% over the next four years and thus hitting a record high of around $4,950 in November 2022.

Solana, which rivals Ethereum for its top spot in the smart contracts sector, has fallen by over 85% after peaking out in November 2021 at nearly $267. That leaves the token with the room to fall by another 10% when measured from its said record high.

Popular analyst PostyXBT says SOL could decline to $15, thus mirroring Ethereum's bear cycle in 2018. What's more, the Solana token could see an Ethereum-like recovery in the coming years that could take SOL price to over $750, he adds.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts another week in a precarious position near $20,000 ahead of fresh macro upheaval.

After admittedly sealing its best week’s gains since March, the largest cryptocurrency is struggling to hold onto its recently-reclaimed levels.

Major resistance zones remain overhead, and with inflation data due for release later in the week, the coming days could prove unnerving for risk assets everywhere.

At the same time, crypto market sentiment is showing signs of recovery, and on-chain metrics continue to underscore what should be Bitcoin’s latest macro price bottom. 

With conflicting data everywhere, Cointelegraph takes a deeper look at potential market-moving factors for the week ahead.

The Ethereum (ETH) network moved one step closer to completing its transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) this week after the successful completion of its second-to-last major Merge trial on the Sepolia public test network.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that following the Sepolia Merge on July 6, the price of Ether rallied to a high near $1,280 on July 8 but has since trended down to hit a daily low of 1,153 on July 10.

With the Ethereum network nearing the home stretch in its shift to PoS, here is what analysts are saying could happen with its price in the short term.

Look out for a pullback to $1,020

The recent price action for Ether that followed the successful Merge on Sepolia “is giving more clarity than $BTC atm [at the moment]” according to crypto trader and engineer Crypto Feras, who posted the following chart outlining the rejection at $1,280.

Crypto Feras said,

Bitcoin (BTC) has given up ground over the weekend as investors remain cautious about the United States consumer inflation data to be released on July 13. Analysts anticipate June’s consumer price index to be higher than May’s 8.6% level.

Due to the macro uncertainty, investors are not confident that Bitcoin’s correction is over. However, Fidelity Investments’ director of global macro Jurrien Timmer said that Bitcoin is back at the 2013 bull market levels “if the price per millions of non-zero addresses“ is considered for valuing it. That implies that “Bitcoin is cheap.”

The readings on the Reserve Risk indicator, which shows long-term holder sentiment, plunged to a new all-time low in July. Commentator Murad said this meant that “we are in the high timeframe bottoming zone” or the indicator may be broken.

Could Bitcoin turn around and start a new rally or will it continue lower? Are altcoins showing signs of bottoming out? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies to find out?

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin broke above the symmetrical triangle pattern on July 7 but the bulls could not sustain the momentum at higher levels. This suggests that the bears have not surrendered and are attempting to defend the overhead resistance at $23,363.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit three-day lows into the July 10 weekly close as $21,000 gave way as short-term support.

Trader eyes bullish divergences across markets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD giving up some of its gains from earlier in the week while still looking to cap its best weekly gains since March.

The pair circled $20,850 at the time of writing, around $1,600 below the week’s peak at the 200-week moving average.

Despite no continuation of the breakout, Bitcoin gave some commentators cause for cautious optimism ahead of the new week beginning.

“The markets are showing higher timeframe bullish divergences and the sentiment is the same as on a funeral,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized.

The decline in Cardano (ADA) price this year has prompted some of its richest investors to accumulate the token.

Cardano sharks in buying spree

Notably, addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ADA, also called "sharks," have added 79.1 million tokens (~ $37.7 million as of July 9) to their reserves since June 9, according to data from Santiment.

Meanwhile, Cardano "whales" that hold between 100,000 and 1 million ADA have stopped selling.

Holding a larger amount of ADA makes sharks and whales powerful enough to determine the token's upcoming trends via increased volatility or decreased liquidity. Additionally, they can force "fishes," or investors holding fewer ADA tokens, to copy their trades.

The recent buying spree among the Cardano sharks hints that they have been positioning themselves for a sharp price rebound, especially as ADA trades nearly 85% below its September 2021 record high of $3.16. 

Bitcoin (BTC) has not been this good value since it cost $1,130, one analyst argues as BTC offers a “compelling” risk/reward ratio.

In a Twitter thread on July 7, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity Investments, simply described $20,000 Bitcoin as “cheap.”

Timmer: "In other words, Bitcoin is cheap"

While fears that crypto markets could suffer further drawdowns this year remain, some believe that current Bitcoin price levels offer the kind of value for money not seen in years.

Analyzing the BTC price versus the number of non-zero addresses — wallets with a positive balance — Timmer concluded that BTC/USD is now back at where it was at the peak of the 2013 bull market.

At the time, BTC/USD managed to hit around $1,130 before spending several years consolidating thanks to the demise of exchange Mt. Gox.

Ether (ETH) price is up 16% since July 1 and has outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) in the last 7 days. The move could be partially driven by investors clinging to their hopes that the Ethereum network transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus will be a bullish catalyst.

The next steps for this smart contract involve "the Merge," which was previously known as Eth 2.0. The final trial on the Goerli test network is expected in July before the Ethereum mainnet gets the green light for its upgrade.

Since Terra’s ecosystem collapsed in mid-May, Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) has increased and the flight-to-quality in the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry largely benefited Ethereum thanks to its robust security and battle-tested applications, including MakerDAO.

Ethereum currently holds a 57% market share of TVL, up from 51% on April 8, according to data from Defi Llama. Despite this gain, the current $35 billion in deposits on the networks' smart contracts seem small compared to the $100 billion seen in December 2021.

Further supporting the decrease in decentralized application use on Ethereum is a drop in the median transfer fees, or gas costs, which currently stand at $1.32. This figure is the lowest since mid-December 2020 when the network's TVL stood at $13 billion. However, one might attribute part of the movement to higher use of layer-2 solutions such as Polygon and Arbitrum.

Much to the chagrin of cryptocurrency investors across the ecosystem, the bear market has officially set in and brought with it devastating price collapses that have left relatively few unscathed. 

As the popular topic of conversation now centers on bearish predictions of how low Bitcoin (BTC) will go and how long this iteration of the crypto winter will last, those with more experience on the matter know that it’s virtually impossible to predict the bottom and it would be wise to apply those energies elsewhere.

Instead of focusing on the when of the end, perhaps it’s more constructive to explore what events might help pull the market out of the bear market depths and put it on a path to its next up cycle.

Here’s a look at five potential catalysts that could pull the crypto market out of its current malaise.

A successful Ethereum merge

One of the most highly anticipated developments of the past five years has been the ongoing transition of the Ethereum network from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.

Bitcoin (BTC) may be down 70% from its November 2021 peak, but its rebound move in the past three weeks is raising the possibility of more upside in Q3.

Bitcoin eyes 30% price rally

At the core of the bullish argument is a technical pattern called the "Adam-and-Eve double bottom."

Notably, the structure appears when the price forms two bottom-and-recovery cycles. The first cycle, called "Adam," features a pointed bottom, while the other, called the "Eve," is round-shaped. Also, the peaks of both cycles form a common resistance line. 

The Adam-and-Eve pattern resolves after the price breaks above the resistance line, accompanied by a rise in trading volume.

As a rule of technical analysis, the breakout's target typically comes at a length equal to the maximum distance between the pattern's lowest point and resistance line.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its biggest weekly gains since March, but not everyone is convinced the good times will last.

Crypto sentiment highest since early May

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that at the time of writing, BTC/USD is up over $2,000 this week — nearly 12%.

After spending several days trapped in a narrow range, the pair managed to exit to the upside, the gains accelerating overnight into July 8 to see highs of $22,401 on Bitstamp.

Those highs alone are noteworthy, coinciding with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (MA), an essential level in bear markets which has acted as resistance since last month.

While consolidating around $1,000 lower, Bitcoin nonetheless is showing the potential for a trend turnaround. Beating out the 200-week MA, however, will be no easy task.