Decentral Block Post

The demand for institutional investors for Bitcoin (BTC) became evident on Nov. 10 as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures flipped Binance’s BTC futures markets in terms of size. According to BTC derivatives metrics, those investors are showing strong confidence in Bitcoin’s potential to break above the $40,000 mark in the short term.

CME’s current Bitcoin futures open interest stands at $4.35 billion, the highest since November 2021 when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $69,000 — a clear indication of heightened interest. But is it enough to justify further price gains?

CME’s remarkable growth and the spot Bitcoin ETF speculation 

The impressive 125% surge in CME’s BTC futures open interest from $1.93 billion in mid-October is undoubtedly tied to the anticipation of the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). However, it’s important to note that there’s no direct correlation between this movement and the actions of market makers or issuers. Cryptocurrency analyst JJcycles raised this hypothesis in a Nov. 26 social media post.

To avoid the high costs associated with futures contracts, institutional investors have various options. For instance, they could opt for CME Bitcoin options, which require less capital and offer similar leveraged long exposure. Additionally, regulated ETF and exchange-traded notes (ETN) trading in regions like Canada, Brazil and Europe provide alternatives.

It seems somewhat naive to believe that the world’s largest asset managers would take risky gambles using derivatives contracts on a decision that depends on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is not expected until mid-January. Yet, the undeniable growth in CME Bitcoin futures open interest is hard evidence that institutional investors are setting their sights on the cryptocurrency.

The crypto market is down today as a slew of regulatory enforcement events weigh on Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and altcoin prices. The markets continue to reel since the Nov. 21 Department of Justice (DOJ) settlement against Changpeng “CZ” Zhao and Binance to the tune of a $4.3 billion fine.

Price action across the crypto market remains tilted to the downside as investors and money managers further digest the potential fallout from increased regulatory actions taken against the industry.

US-led regulatory pressure against crypto is in full-steam-ahead mode

The cryptocurrency industry and regulators have a long history of not getting along either due to various misconceptions or mistrust over the actual use case of digital assets.

On Nov. 21, the DOJ announced enforcement actions and a settlement related to CZ and Binance in which both pleaded guilty.

According to the settlement, Binance will pay $4.3 billion in fines, and CZ will pay $159 million in penalties. The settlement covered civil regulatory enforcement actions by government departments, including the U.S. Treasury and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to sustain above the overhead resistance of $38,000 for the second consecutive day and start the next leg of the uptrend. The excitement among market observers may have increased after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on the applications of Franklin Templeton and Hashdex exchange-traded funds.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart speculated in a X (formerly Twitter) post that the SEC may have taken this step “to line every applicant up for potential approval by the Jan. 10, 2024 deadline.”

While many analysts believe that the ETF listing will be a watershed moment for Bitcoin, Genesis Trading head of derivatives Joshua Lim cautioned in a X post that traditional finance investors have already bought the rumor and may exit the trade close to the ETF announcement when retail tries to get in.

However, the macroeconomic conditions in early 2024 may limit the downside. Pershing Square Capital Management CEO and founder Bill Ackman said in an interview with Bloomberg that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates sooner than people expect. He anticipates rate cuts to start in Q1 instead of the market expectations of the middle of the year.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins witness a shallow correction before resuming their uptrend?

Bitcoin (BTC) shrank back from resistance after the Nov. 29 Wall Street open as United States gross domestic product (GDP) figures beat expectations.

GDP sets tone for macro-sensitive crypto

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed a familiar BTC price retracement on short timeframes.

Bitcoin bulls had managed to propel the market above $38,000 the day prior, only to flip-flop around that level before ultimately dropping as U.S. macro data hit.

This showed Q3 GDP accelerating beyond anticipated levels, coming in at 5.2% versus 4.9%.

This renewed concerns over how the United States Federal Reserve might handle policy ahead of an interest rates decision in mid-December.

Bitcoin (BTC) held momentum at $38,000 on Nov. 29 as analysis warned over market corrections.

Bitcoin meets macro data, Fed’s Powell at key price point

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price trajectory continuing to aim for new 18-month highs.

After matching current highs the day prior, the largest cryptocurrency surprised by keeping a grip on higher levels as futures markets hit $39,000.

Already a topic of debate, the excitement on derivatives led some to caution that large-volume traders could still leave late long positions stranded at the top.

In commentary overnight, Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, told traders to be wary of these “whale games.”

The exploiter behind the $46 million crypto theft against KyberSwap has demanded its execs and tokenholders ease up on the hostilities, threatening to push out negotiations until everyone is “more civil.”

In an on-chain message addressed to KyberSwap executives, tokenholders and liquidity providers on Nov. 28, the exploiter said they plan to release a statement around a potential treaty with KyberSwap on Nov. 30 — but won’t do it if hostilities continue.

“I said I was willing to negotiate. In return, I have received (mostly) threats, deadlines, and general unfriendliness from the executive team,” they said.

“Under the assumption that I am treated with further hostility, we can reschedule for a later date, when we all feel more civil,” they warned.

The team behind KyberSwap — a cross-chain decentralized exchange — initially suggested a bounty deal where the hacker returns 90% of the funds across all exploits, allowing the hacker to keep the remaining 10%.