Decentral Block Post

Multiple pieces of data point to the Bitcoin price falling below $29,000 in the short term. 

Yes, you read that right.

Let’s investigate the main issues contributing to the current downside in the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin (BTC) encountered difficulties breaking above $31,800 on July 13, resulting in a 6.3% correction down to $29,700 on July 17. The price action could reflect investors’ concerns that ongoing regulatory developments and macroeconomic headwinds could drive Bitcoin below the $29,000 level, which was last observed on June 21.

On the derivatives side, Bitcoin futures show increased demand, but Asian markets are slowing down.

Bitcoin continues to shoulder the market, as digital asset inflows saw positive movement for the fourth consecutive week, with $137 million incoming. 

According to CoinShares, this brings the four-week total to $742 million — correcting the nine weeks’ worth of outflows before the streak began and marking the largest inflow run since the fourth quarter of 2021.

The continuing positive momentum might be attributed to several factors, including a recent partial victory for the crypto community in the form of a legal decision in the Securities and Exchange Commission v. Ripple lawsuit.

Related: SEC could be waiting ‘years’ to file appeal in Ripple case — Brad Garlinghouse

The XRP (XRP) token soared on news of the ruling, and the market followed suit with a week of activity that received an overall rating of 56 on the “Fear and Greed Index” for cryptocurrency — an indication of “greed,” or increased positive sentiment. This week, however, the index saw a return to a “neutral” rating, as of July 17, despite four weeks of positive inflows into crypto investment products.

The next phase of the ‘SEC vs Ripple’ case is set to move forward as U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York filed paperwork on July 17 referring the case to Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn.

First reported by journalist Eleanor Terrett, the court issued an “amended order of reference to a Magistrate” transferring judiciary oversight of the case to the Magistrate’s office:

The single-page document, which was viewed by Cointelegraph, indicates that the next step will be general pretrial. This stage usually entails discovery and a short window to raise objections.

General pretrial is the most likely portion of the proceedings for a settlement to occur. As Cointelegraph recently reported, experts believe that it’s unlikely the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will appeal the previous week's rulings by Judge Torres.

Related: Judge rules XRP is not a security in SEC's case against Ripple

Bitcoin remains stuck inside a narrow range, making it difficult to predict the direction of the next possible breakout. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which generally moves in inverse correlation to Bitcoin (BTC), dropped below 100, but that has failed to propel Bitcoin higher. This suggests that Bitcoin is charting its own course in the near term.

Therefore, the earnings season from big companies this week may sway equities markets in the United States but may not have the same effect on Bitcoin. It is becoming increasingly difficult to pinpoint the event or the news flow that will cause Bitcoin’s price to escape the range.

The uncertainty about Bitcoin’s next directional move has not deterred the whales. CryptoQuant’s contributing analyst SignalQuant highlighted that one on-chain indicator, the unspent transaction outputs, has been rising in 2023, similar to the increase seen in 2019. If the indicator continues to rise, it will suggest that Bitcoin has room to run and the low made in late 2022 was a long-term bottom.

Could the DXY stage a recovery? Will that limit the upside in Bitcoin and the major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is in a strong uptrend. The price has reached resistance at 4,513, which may act as a minor hurdle. But if bulls do not give up much ground from the current levels, it will suggest that traders expect the rally to continue.

Bitcoin (BTC) refused to give up $30,000 at the July 17 Wall Street open as observers placed bets on a step lower next.

Bitcoin traders line up downside targets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed what one analyst called “boring” BTC price action into the new trading week.

After an equally quiet weekend, BTC/USD showed no signs of volatility amid a lack of catalysts for change across risk assets.

“The market is in flux, and both camps are fighting for dominance,” on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators wrote in part of its latest analysis, referring to a battle between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

“Everytime bears start to get some momentum, bulls replenish support at $30k. IMO, still too soon to declare a confirmed bull breakout, quite simply, because we haven't even had a legit test of resistance. Time for patience and discipline.”

Bitcoin (BTC) refused to give up $30,000 at the July 17 Wall Street open as observers placed bets on a step lower next.

Bitcoin traders line up downside targets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed what one analyst called boring BTC price action into the new trading week.

After an equally quiet weekend, BTC/USD showed no signs of volatility amid a lack of catalysts for change across risk assets.

“The market is in flux, and both camps are fighting for dominance,” on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators wrote in part of its latest analysis, referring to a battle between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

“Everytime bears start to get some momentum, bulls replenish support at $30k. IMO, still too soon to declare a confirmed bull breakout, quite simply, because we haven’t even had a legit test of resistance. Time for patience and discipline.”