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The Bitcoin (BTC) futures' premium has reached its highest level in 18 months on July 4. But traders are now questioning whether the derivatives metrics indicate "excessive excitement" or a "return to the mean" after a prolonged bear market.

BTC price gains capped by regulators, macroeconomics

Bitcoin's price has been trading in a narrow 4.4% range since June 22, oscillating between $29,900 and $31,160 as measured by its daily closing prices. The lack of a clear trend might be uncomfortable to some, but that is a reflection of the opposing drivers currently in play.

For instance, investor sentiment was negatively affected by the historic reversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, which reached its highest level on record.

The closely monitored inverted spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes has reached its highest level since 1981, standing at 1.09%. The phenomenon known as yield curve inversion, when shorter-dated Treasury notes trade at higher yields than longer-dated notes, typically precedes economic recessions.

Related: Fed pauses interest rates, but Bitcoin options data still points to BTC price downside

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls fought for $31,000 on July 4 as a United States market closure offered the chance for volatility.

Bitcoin price "getting ready to rip higher"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action attempting to cement overnight gains.

These topped out near $31,400 before momentum waned, leaving BTC/USD still within a narrow trading range.

Despite no new yearly highs yet, market participants were bullish on lower timeframes based on recent behavior.

Trading suite Decentrader even argued that Bitcoin was “looking bullish across virtually all time frames” on one of its proprietary trading tools.

Crypto exchange Gemini founder and CEO Cameron Winklevoss is again threatening to sue Digital Currency Group and its CEO Barry Silbert over delays in the resolution of Genesis for its Earn customers while slamming the CEOfor allegedly trying to play the victim card.

In the July 3 “Open Letter to Barry Silbert,” Winklevoss alleged the DCG enterprise had engaged in “fraudulent behavior” via a “culture of lies and deceit” — which have come at the expense of Gemini’s 232,000 Earn users.

Among the accusations, Winklevoss’ strongly-worded letter alleges that Silbert intentionally delayed resolution through “abuse” of the mediation process, stating: 

"Mediation has given DCG an indefinite forbearance on the $630 million it owes Genesis — for free."

Most disturbing, according to Winklevoss, has been Silbert’s apparent claim of being the “victim” in the debacle.