Decentral Block Post

In an interview with Bloomberg, ARK Invest CEO and chief investment officer Cathie Wood recently discussed why her flagship fund, Ark Innovation (ARKK), is adding to its position in shares of Coinbase (COIN) after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Binance, one of Coinbase’s biggest competitors.

ARKK purchased nearly 330,00 shares of COIN on June 6, 2023, worth about $17 million at the time, according to disclosure statements. Two other exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Ark Fintech Innovation ETF and Ark Next Generation Internet ETF, also added 35,700 shares (worth $1.8 million) and 53,900 shares (worth $2.8 million), respectively. 

Across all three funds, Ark’s average entry price is $272.75 to $282.93, with the firm’s total position currently valued at $1.77 billion. At the time of writing, COIN is trading at $53.90. Needless to say, the fund is deeply in the red on this trade so far.

As far as why she’s still bullish, her reasoning boils down to this: SEC enforcement will lead Coinbase to become the only game in town when it comes to cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States. Of course, this assumes that Coinbase will triumph in its own legal battles with the SEC.

Wood explained that she sees a difference in the accusations being brought against the two exchanges. While both are facing lawsuits by the SEC over the alleged trading and staking of unregistered securities, Binance may also be facing more serious charges.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has gained for five consecutive weeks, the first such instance since November 2021. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading well below its local high of $31,000, made on April 14. This shows a clear divergence between the performance of the two asset classes.

Some analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound action to continue for some more time. Cryptocurrency traders will be looking for some positive triggers that could push the price above the range. One such rumor floating in the markets is that after BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund, Fidelity Investments may also follow suit. If that happens, it will be a positive sign for the markets.

Another positive for the cryptocurrency markets has been that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) softened in the past week. Historically, the dollar and Bitcoin have an inverse correlation, which may help limit the downside in Bitcoin and launch a relief rally.

Let’s look at the important resistance levels that need to be crossed to start a sustained recovery in Bitcoin and the major altcoins.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index is in a short-term uptrend. The rally of the past few days pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into the overbought territory, indicating that a minor correction or consolidation is possible.

On June 19, European cryptocurrency investment firm CoinShares published its “Digital Asset Fund Flows Report,” revealing that cryptocurrency investment products experienced outflows totaling $5.1 million last week. The outflows contributed to the continuation of a nine-week streak of outflows, resulting in a cumulative total of $423 million.

The report noted that despite this downward trend, there was a glimmer of hope toward the end of the week, as news emerged that BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, had submitted an application for a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded product (ETP) in the United States. This development resulted in minor inflows; however, they were not significant enough to offset the earlier outflows observed during the week. As a consequence, the streak of outflows persisted.

Examining the regional breakdown, the U.S. and Germany experienced minor inflows of $3.7 million and $2.4 million, respectively. The U.S. maintained its lead in terms of total inflows year-to-date, accumulating $147 million, while Canada struggled with outflows amounting to $277 million. CoinShares’ report author, James Butterfill, added, “Despite improving regulatory conditions in Hong Kong, we have not seen any measurable inflows into ETPs year-to-date while total assets under management (AuM) remain low at US$39m.”

According to CoinShares, the previous week’s crash in altcoin prices served as a catalyst for investors to increase their positions. Consequently, inflows totaling $2.4 million were observed. Noteworthy cryptocurrencies such as XRP (XRP), Cardano (ADA) and Polygon (MATIC) were the focus of these inflows, receiving amounts of $1 million, $0.6 million and $0.2 million, respectively.

On the other hand, Ether (ETH) experienced the largest outflows for the week, totaling $5 million. Additionally, both Tron (TRX) and Avalanche (AVAX) saw outflows of $0.4 million each. In a similar vein, CoinShares noted, “Blockchain equities saw the largest outflows since FTX, totalling $12.3m.”

After a momentary retest of the $25,000 support on June 15, Bitcoin gained 6.5% as bulls successfully defended the $26,300 level. Despite this, the general sentiment remains slightly bearish as the cryptocurrency has declined by 12.7% in two months.

The dismissal of Binance.US’s temporary restraining order by Judge Amy Berman Jackson of the United States district court is somewhat related to investors’ sentiment improving. On June 16, the exchange reportedly reached an agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), avoiding the freeze of its assets.

On a longer timeframe, the global regulatory environment has been extremely harmful to cryptocurrency prices. Besides the SEC trying to unilaterally label exactly which altcoins it views as securities and litigating with the two leading global exchanges, the European Union signed the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulations into law on May 31. This means crypto businesses have set timelines to implement and comply with MiCA’s requirements.

Curiously, while Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance has been lackluster, on June 16, the S&P 500 Index reached its highest level in 14 months. Even with this recovery, JPMorgan strategists expect the rally to come under pressure in the second half of 2023 “if growth stalls in absolute terms."

Investors will keep their focus on the U.S. central bank, with Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on June 21 and the Senate Banking Committee on the morning of June 22 as part of his semi-annual testimony before lawmakers.