Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) has room to drop below $25,000 to flush out a recent influx of speculators, research shows.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode flagged the ongoing influence of “short-term holders” (STHs) on BTC price action.

Profitability reset point lies below $25,000

BTC/USD has struggled to overcome $30,000 resistance in recent weeks, and multiple fakeouts have frustrated Bitcoin bulls.

In its latest investigation into on-chain activity, Glassnode revealed that market newcomers may be responsible — speculative behavior, including profit-taking, has become prevalent in 2023.

Among the metrics contributing evidence is market value to realized value (MVRV), which tracks spot price and the on-chain cost basis of specific investor segments. STH-MVRV reflects the relationship as it impacts STHs, defined as those hodling Bitcoin for 155 days or less.

Ether’s (ETH) price has shown weakness after failing to break above the $1,950 resistance on April 26. The subsequent correction drove ETH to $1,810 on May 1, nearing its lowest level in four weeks. Curiously, the movement happened while First Republic Bank (FRB) was seized by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with JPMorgan to protect FRB depositors, estimating a $13 billion loss.

Commented on the latest major U.S. bank failure, UBS analyst Erika Najarian stated:

“This deal does not change the rates, recession and regulatory headwinds that regional banks are facing.“

ETH price ignores banking crisis

Curiously, the VIX indicator, which measures how traders are pricing the risks of extreme price oscillations for the S&P 500 index, reached its lowest level in 18 months at 15.6% on May 1.

Bitcoin (BTC) fought for $28,000 support on May 2 after the month opened to multiday lows.

BTC price: “Big volatility on the horizon”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it returned to the $28,000 mark on Bitstamp.

The previous day’s Wall Street open had brought the latest wave of downside volatility, with the pair dipping below $27,700.

This followed a leg lower immediately after the weekly and monthly close, with $30,000 and upward feeling increasingly out of reach.

Market participants’ BTC price targets reflected the mood. Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, argued that a rematch with both $25,000 and $30,000 was still on the table.