Decentral Block Post

The Arbitrum token airdrop led to a massive dump of ARB tokens and projects in the Arbitrum ecosystem in a “sell-the-news” type of event. However, the Ethereum Layer-2 activity remains strong, with the selling pressure of ARB tokens likely done with, making the rollup well-positioned for further growth.

Arbitrum ecosystem tokens sees sell-the-news type event

The Arbitrum (ARB) airdrop was announced on March 16, which caused a significant uptrend in native token prices of Arbitrum ecosystem projects like GMX), Magic , Gains Network (GNS) and Radiant Network (RDNT).

The primary reason behind the pump was the ARB airdrop catalyzing the Arbitrum ecosystem’s growth. However, according to a report from An Ape’s Prologue, “this thesis was seemingly front-run,” as the price surge mainly occurred between the period of the airdrop announcement and the actual airdrop on March 23.

The report added, “On the day the airdrop happened which marked the launch of the $ARB token, the prices of ecosystem tokens began to decline, suggesting a classic “sell the news” event.”

Moreover, the Arbitrum airdrop included a 1.1% allocation out of the total ARB's supply of 12.75 billion for the DAOs in the ecosystem. This was also a reason behind the bullish thesis around the Arbitrum ecosystem, as the DAOs will get a chance to promote usage through ARB incentives.

For the past twelve days, the price of Ether (ETH) has been trading in a narrow descending range. Surprisingly, not even the news of Binance and Changpeng "CZ" Zhao being sued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) was enough to break the support level. 

The lawsuit, filed on March 27, claimed that Binance provided derivatives trading services to U.S.-based customers without first obtaining a derivatives license. Additionally, the US Securities and Exchange Commission served Coinbase with a Wells notice on March 22.

Even if traders saw no reason to reduce their Ether positions due to increased regulatory risk, Binance holds 35% of the open interest in Ether futures. Therefore, if traders are suddenly compelled to liquidate their positions or if there is a sudden reduction in liquidity after U.S. entities are effectively barred from Binance's markets, one should anticipate a significant impact on Ether derivatives markets.

One could point to the market's resiliency after BitMEX derivatives exchange lost its longtime market share advantage following a 30-minute outage in March 2020 during a Bitcoin crash. However, there is no way to predict the outcome of the regulators' case against Binance, so it would be naive to assume that there is a zero percent chance of a service interruption — even if it means clients can close positions and withdraw assets.

Instead of focusing solely on the ETH price, it is essential to closely monitor Ether derivatives to understand how professional traders will react.

For the past twelve days, the price of Ether (ETH) has been trading in a narrow descending range. Surprisingly, not even the news of Binance and Changpeng "CZ" Zhao being sued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) was enough to break the support level. 

The lawsuit, filed on March 27, claimed that Binance provided derivatives trading services to U.S.-based customers without first obtaining a derivatives license. Additionally, the US Securities and Exchange Commission served Coinbase with a Wells notice on March 22.

Even if traders saw no reason to reduce their Ether positions due to increased regulatory risk, Binance holds 35% of the open interest in Ether futures. Therefore, if traders are suddenly compelled to liquidate their positions or if there is a sudden reduction in liquidity after U.S. entities are effectively barred from Binance's markets, one should anticipate a significant impact on Ether derivatives markets.

One could point to the market's resiliency after BitMEX derivatives exchange lost its longtime market share advantage following a 30-minute outage in March 2020 during a Bitcoin crash. However, there is no way to predict the outcome of the regulators' case against Binance, so it would be naive to assume that there is a zero percent chance of a service interruption — even if it means clients can close positions and withdraw assets.

Instead of focusing solely on the ETH price, it is essential to closely monitor Ether derivatives to understand how professional traders will react.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up about 71% in Q1 2023, which is the first positive quarter after four consecutive quarters of negative returns in 2023, according to data from Coinglass. This shows that the sentiment has turned positive and the bulls are trying to put a bottom in Bitcoin.

When the undercurrent is bullish, negative news results in shallow corrections. That is what happened after the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission slapped a lawsuit against Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao for trading violations. This news pulled the markets marginally lower but did not start a strong down move.

Another thing that happens in a bullish environment is that cryptocurrencies move up without any specific catalyst. That happened on March 29 when Bitcoin and several major altcoins turned up sharply.

Could Bitcoin and select altcoins start the next leg of the uptrend and where is the rally likely to face resistance? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

In an uptrend, traders typically buy the pullbacks to the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,371). The long tails on the March 27 and 28 candlestick show just that.