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Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week still in holiday mode with United States financial markets off for Independence Day.

The largest cryptocurrency, stuck below the increasingly daunting $20,000 mark, continues to feel the pressure from the macro environment as talk of lower levels remains omnipresent.

After a quiet weekend, hodlers find themselves stuck in a narrow range while the prospect of a breakout to the upside appears increasingly hard to believe.

As one trader and analyst singles out July 4 as the site of a “wild run to the downside” for crypto markets, the countdown is on for Bitcoin to weather the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve rate hike.

What else could the coming week have in store? Cointelegraph takes a look at the potential market-moving factors for the days ahead.

Argentina, a country with one of the highest crypto adoption rates in the world, saw the price of dollar-pegged stablecoins surge across exchanges on Saturday after the abrupt resignation of its Economy Minister, Martin Guzman. 

The minister’s shock exit, confirmed on his Twitter account on July 3 via a seven-page letter, threatens to further destabilize a struggling economy battling high inflation and a depreciating national currency.

According to data from Criptoya, the cost of buying Tether (USDT) using Argentinian pesos (ARS) is currently 271.4 ARS through the Binance exchange, which is around a 12% premium from before the resignation announcement, and a 116.25% premium compared to the current fiat exchange rate of USD/ARS.

The local crypto price tracking website has also revealed a similar jump in other USD-pegged stablecoins, including Dai (DAI), Binance USD (BUSD), Pax Dollar (USDP), and Dollar on Chain (DOC).

Argentineans have been piling into crypto as a means to hedge against the country’s rising inflation and a continued fall of the Argentinean peso against the USD dollar.

The bears are attempting to sink Bitcoin (BTC) below $19,000 to further cement their advantage over the crypto market. Analysts watching Bitcoin’s MVRV-Z Score, a metric which measures how high or low Bitcoin’s price is relative to “fair value,” expect an even deeper fall before the bottom is finally reached.

However, economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger pointed out that Bitcoin’s volume hit an all-time high in June. Usually, the highest volume in a downtrend is indicative of capitulation and that “creates major bottoms.” If Bitcoin follows the historical pattern of the 2018 bear market, Krueger expects the bottom to form in July.

Due to the tight correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, crypto traders will have to keep a close eye on the performance of the United States equities markets next week, which may be influenced by the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last meeting and the June jobs report.

Could Bitcoin form a higher low and lead the crypto markets toward the path of recovery? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that indicate the possibility of a relief rally in the short term.

BTC/USDT

The long wick on Bitcoin’s July 1 candlestick shows that bears continue to sell on rallies near the 20-day exponential moving average ($21,396). Although bears pulled the price below $19,637, they have not been able to build upon the momentum.

The bears are attempting to sink Bitcoin (BTC) below $19,000 to further cement their advantage over the crypto market. Analysts watching Bitcoin’s MVRV-Z Score, a metric which measures how high or low Bitcoin’s price is relative to “fair value,” expect an even deeper fall before the bottom is finally reached.

However, economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger pointed out that Bitcoin’s volume hit an all-time high in June. Usually, the highest volume in a downtrend is indicative of capitulation and that “creates major bottoms.” If Bitcoin follows the historical pattern of the 2018 bear market, Krueger expects the bottom to form in July.

Due to the tight correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, crypto traders will have to keep a close eye on the performance of the United States equities markets next week, which may be influenced by the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last meeting and the June jobs report.

Could Bitcoin form a higher low and lead the crypto markets toward the path of recovery? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that indicate the possibility of a relief rally in the short term.

BTC/USDT

The long wick on Bitcoin’s July 1 candlestick shows that bears continue to sell on rallies near the 20-day exponential moving average ($21,396). Although bears pulled the price below $19,637, they have not been able to build upon the momentum.

Although non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are most commonly known in the form of digital art, they exist in many other forms and represent much more than just art. 

In the creative industry, NFTs have been used by musicians such as Kings of Leon to release their latest album. In the sports industry, NFTs are created to record the highlights of major sporting events such as the NBA. In the consumer product industry, Nike, Gucci and many others are selling their digital branded products in the form of NFTs. A lot more real-world applications of NFTs are still to be explored and one of them is the digital publishing industry.

The game-changing implications of publishing and promoting books with NFTs have already been discussed extensively by many. For example, the Alliance of Independent Authors are helping indie authors to promote their latest books using NFTs. Other associated items for the fans club such as character cards are also made into NFTs. Tezos Farmation, a project built on Tezos network, even uses the complete text of George Orwell’s Animal Farm book and slices it up into 10,000 pieces to use as titles for the NFTs.

NFTs created from existing books are normally bound to copyrights. However, in the case of Tezos Farmation, the copyright had already expired. The text from the book can be used by any party for free. This triggers a very interesting question - how can NFTs preserve copyrights and royalties for books with expired copyrights?

The NFT application in the publishing industry is so far mostly focused on books that still have royalties and within their copyrights lifespan. But there are authors whose work lives on long past both their mortal existence and that of their copyrights; can NFTs provide their estates a means to extend the life of the book and its royalties?

Bitcoin (BTC) meandered into the weekly close on July 3 after weekend trading produced a brief wick below $18,800.

Bollinger bands signal volatility due

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it stuck to $19,000 rigidly for a third day running.

The pair had gone light on volatility overall at the weekend, but at the time of writing was still on track for the first weekly close below its prior halving cycle’s all-time high since December 2020.

The previous weekend’s action had produced a late surge which saved bulls from a close below $20,000.

Momentum remained weak throughout the following week’s Wall Street trading, however, and traders were unconvinced about the potential for a significant relief bounce.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar since the beginning of 2022 — and now that inverse relationship is more extreme than ever.

Bitcoin and the dollar go in opposite ways

Notably, the weekly correlation coefficient between BTC and the dollar dropped to 0.77 below zero in the week ending July 3, its lowest in seventeen months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reached 0.78 above zero in the same weekly session, data from TradingView shows.

That is primarily because of these markets' year-to-date performances amid the fears of recession, led by the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate hikes to curb rising inflation. Bitcoin, for example, has lost over 60% in 2022, while Nasdaq's returns in the same period stand around minus 29.72%.

On the other hand, the dollar has excelled, with its U.S. dollar index (DXY), a metric that measures its strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, hovering around its January 2003 highs of 105.78.