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Bear markets have historically been challenging to navigate for traders and the conventional set of "reliable" indicators that determine good entry points are unable to predict how long a crypto winter might last.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent recovery back above the psychologically important price level of $20,000 was a sign to many traders that the bottom was in, but a deeper dive into the data suggests that the short-term relief rally might not be enough proof of a macro-level trend change.

Evidence pointing to the need for caution was provided in a recent report by cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, which suggested that “we need to see a little more pain before we have conviction that a market bottom is in.”

Despite the pain that has already been felt since Bitcoin’s price topped in November, a comparison between its pullback since then and the 2017 market top points to the possibility of further decline in the short-term.

During previous bear markets, the price of BTC fell by roughly 85% from its top to the eventual bottom. According to Delphi Digital, if history were to repeat itself in the current environment it would translate into “a low just above $10,000 and another 50% drawdown for current levels.”

Bitcoin’s (BTC) current bear market is one of the worst, according to a report by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. This was the first time in history that the Mayer Multiple slipped below the previous cycle’s low. Bitcoin’s fall below $20,000 on June 18 also marked the biggest loss ever booked by investors in a single day at $4.23 billion. Considering the above factors and a few other events, Glassnode believes that the capitulation in Bitcoin may have started.

Bitcoin whales seem to have started their purchasing, suggesting that the bottom may be close and on June 25, analytics resource "Game of Trades" highlighted that demand from whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin witnessed a sharp spike in demand.

Another sign that traders are purchasing comes from Glassnode comments suggesting that the 30-day average change in the supply kept on exchanges plummeted by 153,849 Bitcoin on June 26, the largest ever in history.

Could bulls continue their purchases on dips and form a higher low? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin turned down from $22,000 on June 26, indicating that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies. The bears will try to pull the price to the psychological level of $20,000.

The price of Terra (LUNA2) has recovered sharply nine days after falling to its historic lows of $1.62. 

On June 27, LUNA2's rate reached $2.77 per token, thus chalking up a 70% recovery when measured from the said low. Still, the token traded 77.35% lower than its record high of $12.24, set on May 30.

LUNA2's recovery mirrored similar retracement moves elsewhere in the crypto industry with top crypto assets Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) rising by approximately 25% and 45% in the same period.

The recent bout of buying in the LUNA2 market could trap bulls, given it has come as a part of a broader correction trend.

In detail, LUNA2 appears to be forming a "bear flag" pattern, a bearish continuation setup that appears as the price consolidates upward inside a parallel ascending channel after undergoing a large move downside.

Bitcoin (BTC) sold off into the June 27 Wall Street open as United States equities fell.

$25,000 eyed as bulls' line in the sand

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD following stock markets downhill as the last week of June began.

At the time of writing, the pair traded below $21,000, having hit its lowest in three days after a broadly stable weekend.

Amid a general lack of bullish conviction among traders, expectations for a further drop stayed present, with Bitcoin still below the crucial 200-week moving average (WMA) at $22,430.

"Bitcoin says NO against $21K support. That's all fine. We have got levels structured," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe wrote in a Twitter debate on the day.