Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) inflows to largest exchange Binance just saw a giant spike reminiscent of the 2018 bear market capitulation.

Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that on Nov. 18, a giant tranche of almost 60,000 BTC entered Binance’s wallet.

Exchange inflows highest since late 2018

BTC price contagion fears thanks to FTX insolvencies and related panic selling are ongoing.

Now, the latest on-chain figures from Binance could provide an additional catalyst for nervous markets — the exchange has seen its biggest daily inflow on record.

With Nov. 18 not over, partial data from CryptoQuant puts current inflows at over 138,000 BTC for the day so far.

The Securities Commission of The Bahamas (SCB) said it had ordered the transfer of all digital assets of FTX Digital Markets (FDM) to a digital wallet owned by the commission on Nov. 12. 

In a Nov. 17 statement, the SCB said it exercised its power as a regulator acting under the authority of a Supreme Court order — moving the assets to a “digital wallet controlled by the Commission, for safekeeping.”

SCB justified last week’s move by stating that “urgent interim regulatory action was necessary to protect the interests of clients and creditors of FDM.”

The latest revelation could shed some light on certain movements of funds detected last week. 

On Nov. 11, the crypto community flagged a number of suspicious transactions in wallets tied to FTX and FTX.US, with analysts reporting around $663 million drained. $477 million were suspected to be stolen while the remainder was believed to have been moved to secure storage by FTX themselves.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty of how one simple rule created the kind of insane return on investment noted in the headline — during one of the worst Crypto Winters in recent history — let’s be clear on one thing.

You can’t copy this now.

But anyone with access to Cointelegraph Markets Pro in 2022 could have. This is not a mere backtested strategy. It’s a real-life strategy — although you’re about to see historical results. 

This is no longer a thought experiment or proof-of-concept; it is an actual way to make money in crypto trading. 

For our purposes, it’s also a perfect way to illustrate how a simple strategy can work for real traders in real life — even during extreme market pullbacks. 

Before we get into the nitty-gritty of how one simple rule created the kind of insane return on investment noted in the headline — during one of the worst Crypto Winters in recent history — let’s be clear on one thing.

You can’t copy this now.

But anyone with access to Cointelegraph Markets Pro in 2022 could have. This is not a mere backtested strategy. It’s a real-life strategy — although you’re about to see historical results. 

This is no longer a thought experiment or proof-of-concept; it is an actual way to make money in crypto trading. 

For our purposes, it’s also a perfect way to illustrate how a simple strategy can work for real traders in real life — even during extreme market pullbacks. 

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin (BTC) futures have been trading below Bitcoin’s spot price on regular exchanges since Nov. 9, a situation that is technically referred to as backwardation. While it does point to a bearish market structure, there are multiple factors that can cause momentary distortions.

Typically, these CME fixed-month contracts trade at a slight premium, indicating that sellers are requesting more money to withhold settlement for longer. As a result, futures should trade at a 0.5% to 2% premium in healthy markets, a situation known as contango.

However, a prominent futures contract seller will cause a momentary distortion in the futures premium. Unlike perpetual contracts, these fixed-calendar futures do not have a funding rate, so their price may vastly differ from spot exchanges.

Aggressive sellers caused a 5% discount on BTC futures

Whenever there's aggressive activity from shorts (sellers), the two-month futures contract will trade at a 2% or higher discount.

Notice how 1-month CME futures had been trading near the fair value, either presenting a 0.5% discount or 0.5% premium versus spot exchanges. However, during the Nov. 9 Bitcoin price crash, aggressive futures contracts sellers caused the CME futures to trade 5% below the regular market price.