Decentral Block Post

As November begins, analysts are busy dissecting the major market movements that occurred in October. While Bitcoin (BTC) stayed relatively unchanged with only 5.89% growth in October, Arcane Research senior analyst, Vetle Lunde mapped out the direction the market might take in the next few months.

“Uptober,” a reference to Bitcoin's bullish historical performance in the month of October, was a common theme across many threads on Crypto Twitter and, according to Lunde, this performance appears to have happened once again. Data shows BTC and exchange tokens outperformed the large caps index up until Oct. 26.

Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover helped push the large caps index above Bitcoin with a staggering 20% monthly gain. Dogecoin (DOGE) helped cement the large-cap strength by producing a 144% gain in the last seven days.

October’s Bitcoin spot market was driven by increased volume and lower volatility, while benefiting from a short squeeze that briefly invigorated the market. According to Lunde, the last week of October saw the largest short liquidation volume in crypto since July 26, 2021.

While this activity helped push Bitcoin up by 6%, Ether (ETH) and BNB (BNB) saw more substantial gains at 18% and 19% respectively.

Novice traders are usually drawn to futures and options markets due to the promise of high returns. These traders watch influencers post incredible gains, and at the same time, the multiple advertisements from derivatives exchanges that offer 100x leverage are at times irresistible for most. 

Although traders can effectively increase gains with recurring derivatives contracts, a few mistakes can quickly turn the dream of outsized gains into nightmares and an empty account. Even experienced investors in traditional markets fall victim to issues particular t cryptocurrency markets.

Cryptocurrency derivatives function similarly to traditional markets because buyers and sellers enter into contracts dependent on an underlying asset. The contract cannot be transferred across different exchanges, nor can it be withdrawn.

Most exchanges offer options contracts priced in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), so the gains or losses will vary according to the asset’s price fluctuations. Options contracts also offer the right to acquire and sell at a later date for a predetermined price. This gives traders the ability to build leverage and hedging strategies.

Let’s investigate three common errors to avoid when trading futures and options.

While Bitcoin (BTC) price support may be psychological for some traders, the statistics behind BTC remaining over $20,000 for a week are strong indicators of price support or in other words, a new bear market floor. Multiple Bitcoin data points might be able to establish a $20,000 support level. 

Last week Bitcoin reached a high of $20,961. However, it never sustained its upward momentum as the rally fizzled out, failing to break $21,000 support. As a result of the rally as well as the rejection, Glassnode, in the most recent report, analyzes if Bitcoin is hammering out a bear market floor.

Realized price distribution

Bitcoin’s realized price charts the average cost buyers paid for their BTC holdings. If the price of Bitcoin goes below a user’s realized price, they are technically experiencing an unrealized loss. For visual effect, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows the percentage of supply distributed across the acquisition price.

The 2019 bear market shows that 30% of BTC’s total supply was concentrated within the realized price range. In April 2019, the price broke out above the realized price, signaling the start of a new bull market.

Looking at the current market and applying the same methodology, Bitcoin’s realized price is concentrating 20% of supply between $17,000 and $22,000. While this suggests that more redistribution may need to occur, the consolidation is significant and highlights a resilient holder base.