Decentral Block Post

Michael J. Burry, the financial wizard who was portrayed in the movie "The Big Short", is known for predicting crises. For instance, his investment fund made billions from the 2008 housing crash, and Burry liquidated almost all his entire portfolio during the 2Q of 2022.

Given that no one seems to know whether traditional markets will bounce before entering a further recessive environment, it might be a good time to consider investing in cryptocurrencies. Below are some examples on how experienced investors sometimes miss incredible rallies.

In May 2017, Burry said people should expect a "global financial meltdown" and World War 3. Instead, the S&P 500 rallied 20% over the following 9 months. A couple of years later, the index peaked in December 2021, at a level that was more than 100% above Burry’s suggested short entry price.

In December 2020, Burry said that Tesla's stock price was "ridiculous" as part of his justification for opening his short position. A 47% rally happened in the 35 days following that remark and Tesla shares peaked 10 months later after a 105% total gain from Tesla’s supposedly "ridiculous" price.

Indicators point to a major recession, but exactly when remains unknown

Without mistake, traders should not dismiss the fact that the U.S. dollar index has rallied strongly against other major global currencies to reach its highest level in 20 years. This shows that investors are desperately seeking shelter in cash positions, exiting stock markets, foreign currencies and corporate debt.

The United Kingdom is in focus following the British pound’s fall to a new all-time low against the United States dollar. The sell-off was triggered by the aggressive tax cuts announced by Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government. The 10-year gilt yields have soared by 131 basis points in September, on track for its biggest monthly increase since 1957, according to Reuters.

The currency crisis and the soaring U.S dollar index (DXY) may not be good news for U.S. equities and the cryptocurrency markets. A ray of hope for Bitcoin (BTC) investors is that the pace of decline has slowed down in the past few days and the June low has not yet been re-tested.

That could be because Bitcoin’s long-term investors do not seem to be panicking. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which gives more weightage to coins dormant for a long time, hit a new low. This indicates that coins held for the long-term “are the most dormant they have ever been.”

Could Bitcoin and altcoins continue their short-term outperformance? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

The bulls continue to defend the $18,626 to $17,622 support zone with all their might. This is a positive sign as it shows that buyers are accumulating on dips to the support zone.

On Sept. 26, the British pound hit a record low against the U.S. dollar following the announcement of tax cuts and further debt increases to curb the impact of a possible economic recession. The volatility simply reflects investors' doubts about the government's capacity to withstand the growing costs of living across the region.

The U.S. dollar has been the clear winner as investors seek shelter in the largest global economy, but the British pound's weakness could be a net positive for Bitcoin. The GBP, or British pound, is the world's oldest currency still in use and it has been in continuous use since its inception.

Fiat currencies are a 52-year old experiment

The British pound, as we currently know, started its journey in 1971 after its convertibility with gold or theequivalent was effectively terminated. Since then, the currency issued by the Bank of England has not had a fixed valuation.

Inflation has been the centerpiece of economic debates all throughout 2022 after central banks added liquidity to the markets over the previous two years to stimulate economies. As a result, in August 2022, the United Kingdom saw a 9.9% increase in consumer prices versus the previous year.

On Sept. 22, the government announced an unprecedented tax cut, the highest since 1972, causing the British pound to reach an intraday low of $1.038 versus the U.S. dollar on Sept. 26. Analysts concluded that government bond issuance would increase to pay for the lesser tax, and interest rates would have to be aggressively increased.