Decentral Block Post

BNB, the native token of Binance’s BNB Chain, entered a symmetrical triangle formation on Aug. 10, when it first faced the descending trendline at the $335 resistance. The following five weeks have been a struggle around $280, the exact intersection between the two conflicting ascending and descending patterns.

A decision on whether the symmetrical triangle will break to the upside or downside is expected by Sept. 30, when the trendlines cross. Currently holding a $45 billion total market capitalization, BNB Chain token has outperformed the broader altcoin market by 15% over the past three months.

The latest breakthrough in BNB Chain development was announced on Sept. 7, after the project introduced zero-knowledge (ZK) proof scaling privacy technology. The testnet is expected for November, aiming for faster finality and reduced transaction fees. Ethereum mastermind Vitalik Buterin also wants to implement a similar solution for the Ethereum network and he highlighted the importance of ZK in late 2021.

BNB Chain's Ethereum-compatible network is fully functional, hosting decentralized applications (DApps), including decentralized exchanges (DEXs), games, collateralized loan services, social networks, yield aggregators and NFT marketplaces.

A decline in price deposits could be a red flag

Despite currently being 60% below its -time high, BNB remains the third largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization ranking, excluding stablecoins. Moreover, the network holds $6.6 billion worth of deposits locked on smart contracts, a term known as total value locked, in the industry.

A quick flick through Twitter, any social media investing club, or investing-themed Reddit will quickly allow one to find handfuls of traders who have vastly excelled throughout a month, semester, or even a year. Believe it or not, most successful traders cherry-pick periods or use different accounts simultaneously to ensure there’s always a winning position to display.

On the other hand, millions of traders blow up their portfolios and turn out empty-handed, especially when using leverage. Take, for example, the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) which requires that brokers disclose the percentage of their accounts in the region that are unprofitably trading derivatives. According to the data, 69% to 84% of retail investors lose money. 

Similarly, a study by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission found that 70% of foreign exchange traders lose money every quarter, and eToro, a multinational broker with 27 million users, reported that nearly 80% of retail investors lost money over 12 months.

The same pattern emerges in every market across different continents and decades: retail traders seldom sustain profitable operations. Still, novice and experienced investors think they can overcome that bias due to ingenuity or mass marketing campaigns from influencers, exchanges and algorithmic trading systems.

Below are the 4 culprits behind the inevitable failure of retail traders. There is no easy solution aside from a long-term mentality and dollar-cost average-based strategy of buying a fixed amount every week or month.

The Ethereum Merge came and went, leaving investors to ponder what the next trending development in the market could look like. In a Cointelegraph Twitter Space with Capriole founder Charles Edwards, the analyst mentioned that excitement over the Ethereum Merge and its bullish price action had somewhat been holding up hope across the market. Now that the event has come and gone, the crypto market has been selling off, with Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trading below $20,000 and Ether’s (ETH) under $1,500. 

Eventually, new narratives and market trends will emerge, and if the fundamentals are right, traders will rotate funds as these new leaders emerge.

Let’s take a look at a few potential trends.

Where will the former ETH miners go?

The Ethereum network successfully shifted to a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, meaning miners are out of pocket but still possibly in possession of their GPUs and ASICs mining infrastructure. It’s possible that some miners might elect to mine on a different chain instead of selling their gear.

While they haven’t settled on any particular chain just yet, Ravencoin, Flux, Ethereum Classic and Ergo seem to be the frontrunners. Leading into the Merge, each network saw its hash rate rise to new all-time highs, as shown below.

Presently, there seems to be a general assumption that when the U.S. dollar value increases against other global major currencies, as measured by the DXY index, the impact on Bitcoin (BTC) is negative.

Traders and influencers have been issuing alerts about this inverse correlation, and how the eventual reversal of the movement would likely push Bitcoin price higher.

Analyst @CryptoBullGems recently reviewed how the DXY index looks overbought after its relative strength index (RSI) passed 78 and could be the start of a retrace for the dollar index.

Moreover, technical analyst @1coin2sydes presents a bearish double top formation on the DXY chart, while simultaneously Bitcoin forms a double bottom, a bullish indicator.

Correlation changes over time, despite the general inverse trend

The periods of inverse movements between Bitcoin and the DXY index have never exceeded 36 days. The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to a positive 1, which reflects a perfect and symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) has been forming an inverse-cup-and-handle pattern since May 2021 on the weekly chart, which hints at a potential decline against Bitcoin (BTC). 

An inverse cup-and-handle is a bearish reversal pattern, accompanied by lower trading volume. It typically resolves after the price breaks below its support level, followed by a fall toward the level at a length equal to the maximum height between the cup's peak and the support line.

Applying the theoretical definition on ETH/BTC's weekly chart presents 0.03 BTC as its next downside target, down around 55% from Sept. 16's price.

Can ETH/BTC pull a Dow Jones?

Alternatively, the ETH/BTC pair could nevertheless deliver some large gains in the years to come.

On the weekly log chart, the ETH/BTC pair is painting a potential cup-and-handle since January 2018. In other words, a rally toward 0.5 BTC in 2023 is on the table, up more than 520% from current price levels.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) has been forming an inverse-cup-and-handle pattern since May 2021 on the weekly chart, which hints at a potential decline against Bitcoin (BTC). 

An inverse cup-and-handle is a bearish reversal pattern, accompanied by lower trading volume. It typically resolves after the price breaks below its support level, followed by a fall toward the level at a length equal to the maximum height between the cup's peak and the support line.

Applying the theoretical definition on ETH/BTC's weekly chart presents 0.03 BTC as its next downside target, down around 55% from Sept. 16's price.

Can ETH/BTC pull a Dow Jones?

Alternatively, the ETH/BTC pair could nevertheless deliver some large gains in the years to come.

On the weekly log chart, the ETH/BTC pair is painting a potential cup-and-handle since January 2018. In other words, a rally toward 0.5 BTC in 2023 is on the table, up more than 520% from current price levels.