Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $19,000 on Sept. 6, driving the price to its lowest level in 80 days. The movement not only completely erased the entirety of the 32% gains accrued from July until Aug. 15, it also wiped out $246 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts.

Bitcoin price is down for the year but it’s important to compare its price action against other assets. Oil prices are currently down 23.5% since July, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has dropped 36.4% in 30 days and Moderna (MRNA), a pharmaceutical and biotechnology company, is down 30.4% in the same period.

Inflationary pressure and fear of a global recession have driven investors away from riskier assets. By seeking shelter in cash positions, mainly in the dollar itself, this protective movement has caused the U.S. Treasuries' 5-year yield to reach 3.38%, nearing its highest level in 15 years. By demanding a loftier premium to hold government debt, investors are signaling a lack of confidence in the current inflation controls.

Data released on Sept. 7 shows that China's exports grew 7.1% in August from a year earlier, after increasing by 18% in July. Furthermore, Germany's industrial orders data on Sept. 6 showed a 13.6% contraction in July versus the previous year. Thus, until there's some decoupling from traditional markets, there's not much hope for a sustainable Bitcoin bull run.

Bears were overly optimistic

The open interest for the Sept. 9 options expiry is $410 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears became too overconfident. These traders were not expecting $18,700 to hold because their bets targeted $18,500 and below.

After trading near the $20,000 level for several days, Bitcoin (BTC) turned down sharply and dropped below $19,000 on Sept. 6. The fall was not limited to the cryptocurrency markets as the United States equities markets also closed lower on Sept. 6.

Risky assets have been facing selling pressure in the past few days as investors are worried that the Federal Reserve could continue with its aggressive tightening policy. 

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability for a 75 basis point rate hike in the September meeting has risen to 80% from 69% a week back. This extended the rise in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which closed above 110 on Sept. 6.

The U.S. equities markets and the cryptocurrency markets are attempting a relief rally on Sept. 7 but the recovery is likely to sustain only after the DXY shows signs of topping out.

Although the bear market has been brutal, it is an encouraging sign to see that venture capital firms have continued to plow money into cryptocurrency and blockchain companies. According to a KPMG report released on Sept. 6, the total investments in the first half of 2022 by these firms hit $14.2 billion, which comes after the record $32.1 billion investments made in 2021.

Cardano (ADA) will undergo a major network update called "Vasil" on Sept. 22, potentially making its blockchain more scalable and cheaper. Nonetheless, the news has failed to spark any decisive upside momentum in ADA's market.

Macro factors weigh on ADA's best upside scenario

In detail, ADA's price has risen approximately 3.5% to $0.51 since the Vasil launch announcement, including a circa 14% rally followed by its near-perfect wipeout. In other words, traders initially bought the Vasil hype but were quick to exit markets, as illustrated by the price action below.

Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson blamed "macro factors" for ADA's underperformance despite the Vasil euphoria, noting that the crypto markets, on the whole, are "disconnected from reality." He added:

"Cardano has never been stronger and frankly many other projects are also solid across the industry, yet you don't see that reflected — just a sea of red."

The statements appeared as riskier assets prepared for another deep plunge in the days leading up to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting on Sept. 20 through Sept. 21.

Cardano (ADA) will undergo a major network update called "Vasil" on Sept. 22, potentially making its blockchain more scalable and cheaper. Nonetheless, the news has failed to spark any decisive upside momentum in ADA's market.

Macro factors weigh on ADA's best upside scenario

In detail, ADA's price has risen approximately 3.5% to $0.51 since the Vasil launch announcement, including a circa 14% rally followed by its near-perfect wipeout. In other words, traders initially bought the Vasil hype but were quick to exit markets, as illustrated by the price action below.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson blamed "macro factors" for ADA's underperformance despite the Vasil euphoria, noting that the crypto markets, on the whole, are "disconnected from reality." He added:

"Cardano has never been stronger and frankly many other projects are also solid across the industry, yet you don't see that reflected — just a sea of red."

The statements appeared as riskier assets prepared for another deep plunge in the days leading up to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting on Sept. 20 through 21.

Bitcoin (BTC) provided a long awaited breakout into Sept. 7 as BTC price action dashed bulls’ hopes of a recovery.

$23,000 relief bounce "still likely" says trader

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured snap losses for BTC/USD later on Sept. 6, with overnight lows coming in at $18,540 on Bitstamp.

The pair put in its lowest levels since June 30, taking liquidity from the July floor and only marginally recovering on the day.

Downside price action followed almost a week of sideways movements and volatility was nowhere to be seen as market participants gritted their teeth hoping for an exit to the upside.

In the event, they were left disappointed, but for popular trader Il Capo of Crypto, there was still reason to believe that a relief bounce would occur.