Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) hit multi-day lows into Aug. 10 as crypto traders braced for impact with fresh United States inflation data. 

Trader: Market "could get ugly" if CPI keeps rising

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $22,668 on Bitstamp at the most recent daily close — its lowest since Aug. 5.

Bullish momentum had evaporated during the day prior, and the mood among traders was firmly risk-off as markets awaited the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout.

Covering July, the data was due at 8.30am Eastern time Aug. 10, with expectations demanding it show that U.S. inflation had already peaked.

“CPI prints have been pretty pitoval for BTC price action,” Blockware lead insights analyst William Clemente wrote in part of a tweet about the event, adding that CPI would form a “big day” for crypto.

The aggregate total value locked (TVL) in the crypto market measures the amount of funds deposited in smart contracts and this figure declined from $160 billion in mid-April to the current $70 billion, which is the lowest level since March 2021. While this 66% contraction is worrying, a great deal of data suggests that the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector is resilient.

The issue with using TVL as a broad metric is the lack of detail that is not shown. For example, the number of DeFi transactions, growth of layer-2 scaling solutions and venture capital inflows in the ecosystem are not reflected in the metric.

In DappRadar's July 29 Crypto adoption report, data shows that the DeFi 2Q transaction count closed down by 15% versus the previous quarter. This figure is far less concerning than the devastating TVL decline and is corroborated by a 12% drop in the number of unique active wallets in the same period.

Layer-2 is the path for sustainable DeFi growth

Iakov Levin, CEO and founder of Midas Investments told Cointelegraph that:

"I am firmly convinced that the current bear market is not the 'end' of the DeFi industry. For instance, there is a growing competition amongst decentralized exchanges on layer-2 Ethereum scaling platform Optimism, as Velodrome reached more than $130 million in TVL."

Crypto and equities markets took a bit of a tumble on Aug. 9 as traders grew a bit skittish ahead of tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The details of the print will shine a light on whether the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest hikes are effective in tamping runaway inflation and it could have an impact on the size of future hikes. 

Earlier in the week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk suggested that July data will reflect the United States reaching peak inflation and that any recession will be “mild to moderate.” Right now, the consensus is that July data will be lower than the record-breaking 9.1% figure seen in June. The price of energy commodities (oil, natural gas) noticeably decreased in July and the Fed is hopeful that the previous back-to-back 0.75 basis-point hikes will combat soaring prices in other parts of the economy.

As is custom, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereu (ETH) and most altcoins pulled back as traders de-risk ahead of the CPI print. BTC price dropped as low as $22,800, while Ether corrected to $1,670. The rationale that traders are sheltering in stablecoins is sensible, but from a technical analysis point of view, Aug. 9’s pullback is simply a lower support test after the most recent support-resistance flip of the past week, and large-cap assets like ETH and BTC continue to trade within their multi-week ranges.

According to independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the fear surrounding the Aug. 10 CPI is “unwarranted” and once the series of retests is complete, BTC price should rally toward $28,000.

Adding to the narrative that the current pullback is “expected”, trader @52kskew suggested that BTC’s price action is being impacted by a “healthy unwinding in perps” as spot Bitcoin is sold at a “logical resistance.”

Crypto and equities markets took a bit of a tumble on Aug. 9 as traders grew a bit skittish ahead of tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The details of the print will shine a light on whether the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest hikes are effective in tamping runaway inflation and it could have an impact on the size of future hikes. 

Earlier in the week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk suggested that July data will reflect the United States reaching peak inflation and that any recession will be “mild to moderate.” Right now, the consensus is that July data will be lower than the record-breaking 9.1% figure seen in June. The price of energy commodities (oil, natural gas) noticeably decreased in July and the Fed is hopeful that the previous back-to-back 0.75 basis-point hikes will combat soaring prices in other parts of the economy.

As is custom, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereu (ETH) and most altcoins pulled back as traders de-risk ahead of the CPI print. BTC price dropped as low as $22,800, while Ether corrected to $1,670. The rationale that traders are sheltering in stablecoins is sensible, but from a technical analysis point of view, Aug. 9’s pullback is simply a lower support test after the most recent support-resistance flip of the past week, and large-cap assets like ETH and BTC continue to trade within their multi-week ranges.

According to independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the fear surrounding the Aug. 10 CPI is “unwarranted” and once the series of retests is complete, BTC price should rally toward $28,000.

Adding to the narrative that the current pullback is “expected”, trader @52kskew suggested that BTC’s price action is being impacted by a “healthy unwinding in perps” as spot Bitcoin is sold at a “logical resistance.”