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Bear markets have historically been challenging to navigate for traders and the conventional set of "reliable" indicators that determine good entry points are unable to predict how long a crypto winter might last.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent recovery back above the psychologically important price level of $20,000 was a sign to many traders that the bottom was in, but a deeper dive into the data suggests that the short-term relief rally might not be enough proof of a macro-level trend change.

Evidence pointing to the need for caution was provided in a recent report by cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, which suggested that “we need to see a little more pain before we have conviction that a market bottom is in.”

Despite the pain that has already been felt since Bitcoin’s price topped in November, a comparison between its pullback since then and the 2017 market top points to the possibility of further decline in the short-term.

During previous bear markets, the price of BTC fell by roughly 85% from its top to the eventual bottom. According to Delphi Digital, if history were to repeat itself in the current environment it would translate into “a low just above $10,000 and another 50% drawdown for current levels.”

The price of Terra (LUNA2) has recovered sharply nine days after falling to its historic lows of $1.62. 

On June 27, LUNA2's rate reached $2.77 per token, thus chalking up a 70% recovery when measured from the said low. Still, the token traded 77.35% lower than its record high of $12.24, set on May 30.

LUNA2's recovery mirrored similar retracement moves elsewhere in the crypto industry with top crypto assets Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) rising by approximately 25% and 45% in the same period.

The recent bout of buying in the LUNA2 market could trap bulls, given it has come as a part of a broader correction trend.

In detail, LUNA2 appears to be forming a "bear flag" pattern, a bearish continuation setup that appears as the price consolidates upward inside a parallel ascending channel after undergoing a large move downside.

Bitcoin (BTC) sold off into the June 27 Wall Street open as United States equities fell.

$25,000 eyed as bulls' line in the sand

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD following stock markets downhill as the last week of June began.

At the time of writing, the pair traded below $21,000, having hit its lowest in three days after a broadly stable weekend.

Amid a general lack of bullish conviction among traders, expectations for a further drop stayed present, with Bitcoin still below the crucial 200-week moving average (WMA) at $22,430.

"Bitcoin says NO against $21K support. That's all fine. We have got levels structured," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe wrote in a Twitter debate on the day.

Dogecoin (DOGE) looks ready to extend its rebound move despite the current crypto bear market.

79% chances DOGE will extend its rebound move

DOGE’s price appears to have been painting a bump-and-run-reversal (BARR) bottom since May 11, a technical pattern that points to extended trend reversals in a bear market. It consists of three successful phases: Lead-In, Bump and Run.

The Lead-In phase sees the price consolidating inside a narrow and sideways range, showing an interim bias conflict among investors.

That follows the Bump phase, wherein the price drops and recovers sharply, leading to a price breakout, defined by the Run phase.

Dogecoin appears to be in the Bump Phase while eyeing a breakout above the BARR bottom’s falling trendline resistance. Suppose DOGE breaks above the said price ceiling. Then, as a rule of technical analysis, it would eye a run-up toward the BARR’s origin level.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week above $20,000 but heading for a new bearish record as a key support level remains out of reach.

After a calm weekend punctuated by a brief spike to nearly $22,000, BTC/USD is back near the closing price of June 24 for CME futures markets.

A “round trip” thus allows traders to pick up where they left off at the end of last week’s final Wall Street trading session, but what could lie in store in the coming days?

A familiar cocktail of macro threats and ongoing bearish tendencies make the current climate far from ideal for the average hodler. Despite seeing some relief last week, crypto markets continue to bear the brunt of cold feet, which have defined macro sentiment increasingly throughout 2022.

With the June monthly close fast approaching, meanwhile, Bitcoin faces a few days of reckoning amid what could be its worst monthly performance since 2018.

Alameda Research is a cryptocurrency trading firm and liquidity provider founded by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). Before founding his firm in 2017, SBF spent three years as a trader at the quantitative proprietary trading giant Jane Street Capital, which specializes in equity and bonds.

In 2019, SBF founded the crypto derivatives and exchange FTX, which has quickly grown to become the fifth-largest by open interest. The Bahamas-based exchange raised $400 million in January 2022 and was valued at $32 billion.

FTX’s global derivatives exchange business is separate from FTX US, another entity controlled by SBF, which raised another $400 million from investors including the Ontario Teachers Pension and SoftBank.

The self-made billionaire has big dreams, like purchasing finance giants like Goldman Sachs, and in July 2021, he previously mentioned that “M&A [mergers and acquisitions] is going to be the most likely use of the funds,” raised from investors.

On June 18, crypto brokerage Voyager Digital announced that Alameda Research had agreed to give the company a 200 million USD Coin (USDC) loan and a “revolving line of credit” of 15,000 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $319.5 million at current prices.

The United States equities markets witnessed a sharp comeback last week, led by the Nasdaq Composite, which gained 7.5%. The S&P was up about 6.5% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a gain of 5.4%.

Continuing its tight correlation with the equities market, the crypto markets are also attempting a relief rally. Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a modest recovery, but some altcoins have risen sharply in the past week. This suggests that investors are taking advantage of the sharp fall in the price to accumulate altcoins at lower levels.

Smaller-sized investors have been using the decline in Bitcoin to build their position to at least one Bitcoin. Glassnode data shows that the number of Bitcoin wallet addresses that have more than one Bitcoin rose by 873 between June 15 to June 25.

Could the recovery in Bitcoin and altcoins pick up momentum? Let’s study the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that could charge higher in the short term.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin’s relief rally is facing stiff resistance near $22,000 as seen from the long wick on the June 26 candlestick. This indicates that the bears are not willing to give up their advantage and are selling on rallies.

Bitcoin (BTC) made the most of weekend volatility on June 26 as a squeeze saw BTC/USD reach its highest in over a week.

“Unusual whale activity” flagged

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed the largest cryptocurrency as it hit $21,868 on Bitstamp.

Just hours from the weekly close, a reversal then set in under $21,500, Bitcoin is still in line to seal its first “green” weekly candle since May.

The event followed warnings that volatile conditions both up and down could return during low-liquidity weekend trading. On-chain data nonetheless fixed what appeared to be buying by Bitcoin’s largest-volume investor cohort prior to the uptick.

“Unusual whale activity detected in Bitcoin,” popular analytics resource Game of Trades observed:

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has declined by more than 35% against Bitcoin (BTC) since December 2021, with a potential to decline further in the coming months.

ETH/BTC dynamics

The ETH/BTC pair’s bullish trends typically suggest an increasing risk appetite among crypto traders, where speculation is more focused on Ether’s future valuations versus keeping their capital long-term in BTC. 

Conversely, a bearish ETH/BTC cycle is typically accompanied by a plunge in altcoins and ETH’s decline in market share. As a result, traders seek safety in BTC, showcasing their risk-off sentiment within the crypto industry.

Ethereum TVL wipe-out

Interest in the Ethereum blockchain soared during the pandemic as developers started turning to it to create a wave of so-called decentralized finance (DeFi) projects, including peer-to-peer exchange and lending platforms.

That resulted in a boom in the total value locked (TVL) inside the Ethereum blockchain ecosystem, rising from $465 million in March 2020 to as high as $159 billion in November 2021, up more than 34,000%, according to data from DefiLlama.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) slumped on June 16, suggesting that its relief rally, coinciding with the Federal Reserve announcing it will hike the benchmark rate by 0.75%, is at risk.

Ether bulls trapped?

Ether's price slipped by 9.2% to around $1,120 per token a day after it rebounded by 23% after dropping to almost $1,000, its worst level since January 2021.

The ETH/USD pair's upside move, followed by a sharp correction, appeared in tandem with U.S. stocks, confirming that it traded like a risk-asset.

The decline means that Ether has shed 77% of its value since November 2021 and is now trading below its "realized price" of $1,740, data from Glassnode shows.

In addition, a higher interest rate environment adds more selling pressure, with investors leaving high-risk trades and seeking safety in traditional hedging assets, such as cash. 

Bitcoin (BTC) near $20,000 is worrying the market, but after narrowly avoiding breaking support, is the worst really over?

According to multiple on-chain indicators, it seems that max pain has yet to arrive this cycle.

The stakes are high for many hodlers this week — almost 50% of the supply is being held at a loss and miners are upping their shipments of BTC to exchanges.

Even some of Bitcoin’s biggest investors, notably MicroStrategy, are having to defend their conviction on BTC as price action tumbles.

With targets ranging as low as $11,000, Cointelegraph takes a look at how much further the market technically needs to drop to match historical bottom zones.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to restore the $24,000 support since Celsius, a popular staking and lending platform, paused withdrawals from its platform on June 13. A growing number of users believe Celsius mismanaged its funds following the collapse of the Anchor Protocol on the Terra (LUNA; now LUNC) ecosystem and rumors of its insolvency continue to circulate.

An even larger issue emerged on June 14 after crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) reportedly lost $31.4 million through trading on Bitfinex. Furthermore, 3AC was a known investor in Terra, which experienced a 100% crash in late May.

Unconfirmed reports that 3AC faced liquidations totaling hundreds of millions from multiple positions agitated the market in the early hours of June 15, causing Bitcoin to trade at $20,060, its lowest level since Dec. 15, 2020.

Let’s take a look at current derivatives metrics to understand whether June 15’s bearish trend reflects top traders' sentiment.

Margin markets deleveraged after a brief spike in longs

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency and leverage their trading position to potentially increase returns. For example, one can buy cryptocurrencies by borrowing Tether (USDT) to enlarge exposure.

Bitcoin (BTC) spared hodlers the pain of losing $20,000 on June 15 after BTC/USD came dangerously close to last cycle's high.

Bitcoin "bottom" fools nobody

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD surging higher after reaching $20,079 on Bitstamp.

In a pause from its sell-off, the pair followed United States equities higher on the Wall Street open, hitting $21,700. The S&P 500 gained 1.4% after the opening bell, while the Nasdaq Composite Index managed 1.6%.

The renewed market strength, commentators said, was thanks to the majority already pricing in outsized key rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, due to be confirmed on the day.

Nonetheless, it was crypto taking the worst hit in the inflationary environment, Bloomberg chief commodity strategist Mike McGlone noted. In a tweet, he contrasted Bitcoin and altcoin performance with skyrocketing commodities, notably WTI crude oil, futures of which now traded at almost double their 200-week moving average.

The price of Nexo (NEXO) continued to fall on June 15 as crypto lending firms continue to be shaken by the falling cryptocurrency market.

Meanwhile, Nexo has denied rumors of exposure to Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a Dubai-based crypto fund facing insolvency risks.

NEXO price suffers on DeFi contagion fears 

NEXO, which serves as a security token at a cryptocurrency lending platform of the same name, fell nearly 25% to $0.61 a unit, its lowest price reading since January 2021.

The massive intraday decline came as a part of a broader downside move this week, which stretched NEXO's losses to 40%.

An ongoing contagion in the crypto lending sector contributed to NEXO's underperformance.

Bitcoin (BTC) could be on the verge of a retail major sell-off as exchange inflows spike to almost three-and-a-half-year highs.

Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows users of 21 major exchanges sending coins to their wallets en masse on June 14.

Major exchanges finish up 83,000 BTC in a single day

As BTC/USD fell to lows of $20,800, panic appeared to set in among traders, and despite a reversal that at one point topped $23,000, few seemed willing to trust that the worst was over.

Since then, spot price action has returned to near $21,000, while 24-hour exchange inflows reached 59,376 BTC.

According to CryptoQuant data, this is the largest daily inflow since November 30, 2018. On that day, exchanges recorded 83,481 BTC of net inflows.

Ether (ETH) price nosedived below $1,100 in the early hours of June 14 to prices not seen since January 2021. The downside move marks a 78% correction since the $4,870 all-time high on Nov. 10, 2021.

More importantly, Ether has underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) by 33% between May 10 and June 14, 2022, and the last time a similar event happened was mid-2021.

Even though Bitcoin oscillated in a narrow range two weeks before the 0.082 ETH/BTC peak, this period marked the “DeFi Summer” peak when the Ethereum network’s total value locked (TVL) catapulted to $93 billion from $42 billion two months earlier.

What’s behind Ether’s 2021 underperformance?

Before jumping to conclusions, a broader set of data is needed to understand what led to the 31% correction in the ETH/BTC price in 2021. Looking at the number of active addresses is a good place to start.

Data shows steady growth in active addresses, which increased from 595,620 in mid-March to 857,520 in mid-May. So, not only did the TVL growth take investors by surprise, but so did the number of users.

On June 14, discussions of Celsius continued to populate media headlines and June 14's news involved the platform's CEL token accruing massive gains after what appears to have been either an exchange glitch or a short-squeeze. CEL price spiked from $0.18  to $1.55 in one abrupt candle before sinking back to $0.60 within the same one-hour candle.

Currently, analysts are on the fence about the reason for the explosive price breakout. Some cite Celsius repaying a portion of its debts as a reason, while others pinpoint a possible error on the FTX exchange as the reason for what appears to be a short squeeze.

Are debt repayments boosting investor confidence?

Celsius has been scrambling to cover a number of its debts and it is possible that some investors view this as a sign that the platform will be able to survive the current mayhem. 

Twitter analyst Hsaka said that on-chain data shows that the $28 million in Dai (DAI) that was recently deposited into a wallet controlled by Celsius and has since been sent to a separate address, which he identified as a debt repayment address.

Analysts believe that the Celsius's strategy is to lower its liquidation price in the MakerDAO vaults  where it holds funds and ultimately avoid insolvency.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) is showing signs of bottoming out as ETH price bounced off a key support zone. Notably, ETH price is now holding above the key support level of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $1,196. 

The 200-week SMA support seems purely psychological, partly due to its ability to serve as bottom levels in the previous Bitcoin bear markets.

Independent market analyst "Bluntz" argues that the curvy level would also serve as a strong price floor for Ether where accumulation is likely. 

He notes:

"BTC has bottomed 4x at the 200wma dating back to 2014. [Probably] safe to assume it's a pretty strong level. Sure we can wick below it, but there [are] also six days left in the week."