Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders are knuckling down as a record portion of the BTC supply stays dormant for years.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the percentage of the supply now stationary for at least five years is higher than ever.

2017 BTC buyers not this year's sellers

Bitcoin has recovered almost 40% from its macro lows of $17,600 just two months ago, but for the cryptocurrency’s diamond hands, it has been a non-event.

Those who purchased BTC in 2017 or earlier continue to hodl their stake, and the trend points to more, not less, hodling in recent times.

Not content with the reversion above the 2017 highs of $20,000, long-term holders remain committed to not selling, the Glassnode data shows.

Bitcoin (BTC) shifted higher on Aug. 18 as the latest data confirmed the European Union’s highest ever inflation.

Support and resistance close in on BTC spot price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD passing $23,500 at the time of writing, having preserved $23,000 as support overnight.

Concerns over a deeper risk asset drawdown had become widespread over the week, with Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) notably unable to crack long-term resistance levels.

With bulls seemingly on the back foot, the mood among analysts was naturally wary.

“BTC did break down from this huge rising channel/wedge everyone seems to be watching,” Daan Crypto Trades wrote in part of his latest Twitter update.

The Ethereum network’s long-awaited transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake is set to occur from Sept 15 to 16 and for the last year, traders and analysts have been discussing various outcomes for the upgrade and possible trading strategies. 

Let’s take a look at three options investors and traders have.

Hodl ETH to earn the expected “hardfork” token

The first strategy is relatively simple. Traders can simply buy Ether (ETH) in the spot market and hold it in their exchange wallet, or whatever platform/wallet will support forked tokens, and wait for the expected PoW token.

Way back in 2017, when Bitcoin was forked to Bitcoin Cash, BTC holders received an equal amount of BCH, which at one point traded for $1,650 per token. At the height of the 2021 bull market, BCH rallied as high as $800.

If PoW tokens from those entities that choose to ignore the Merge happens, then finding exchanges that support the hard forks would be the place to sell them. Don’t forget to pay your taxes if your country obligates you to do so.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) bounce fizzled out near $24,500 on Aug. 17, indicating that the recovery still faces stiff resistance from the bears. On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators said the ask liquidity on the Fire Charts was similar to prior local tops.

Another reason for caution among crypto investors was that the recovery in the S&P 500 was reaching extreme overbought levels in the near term. Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity Investments, said that 88% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 50-day moving average, which was “stunning.”

Some were also cautious as Michael Burry, the investor who famously shorted the 2008 housing bubble, almost emptied his equity portfolio in the second quarter of this year in expectation of a sharp fall in the stock markets.

While the short-term looks uncertain, corporate investors who usually are in the game for the long term have increased their investments in the blockchain industry, including the crypto space. The top 40 publicly traded companies invested approximately $6 billion into blockchain startups between September 2021 to June 2022, according to a blog by Blockdata on Aug. 17. That is more than three times the $1.9 billion invested by corporations between January 2021 to September 2021.

What are the critical levels on the downside that will suggest that the recovery could be faltering? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to weekly lows at the Aug. 17 Wall Street open as upcoming Federal Reserve comments unsettled risk assets.

Dollar climbs as Fed minutes due

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a more than 2% daily decline in BTC/USD, which hit $23,325 on Bitstamp.

Already showing signs of weakness, the pair slid further as United States equities began trading, hours before the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) was due to release minutes from its latest meeting.

While not involving a decision on interest rates, the meeting was cued to give an insight into the Fed’s thinking in terms of the next rate tweak due in September.

“The important event tonight with the FOMC minutes, through which information can be received whether the FED is going to be hawkish or dovish,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized in his latest Twitter update.

Manchester United Fan Token (MUFC) is a dead coin and not related to the sports franchise, but one Elon Musk tweet was enough to revive it on Aug. 17.

Fake Man U token pumps after Elon Musk's tweet

To clarify, MUFC is not an official Manchester United crypto token. It came to life in August 2021 after a team of programmers, who are said to be hardcore Manchester United fans, falsely claimed that holding MUFC would give buye influence on the football club's decisions.

The team later conducted an "airdrop" round of 10,000,000,000 MUFC in November 2021, promising to provide 10,000 MUFC to users who followed its official social media handles. The prospects of getting free MUFC tokens helped its price rally to as high as $1.

But the project turned out to be vaporware, eventually leading MUFC down by 100% after November. It was deemed extinct until a tweet from billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk on Aug. 17 revived it from oblivion.

The Tesla CEO tweeted that he would buy the Manchester United football club, which he later admitted was a "long-running joke."

EOS rose approximately 20% to reach $1.66 on Aug. 17 and was on track to log its best daily performance since May 2021.

Initially, the EOS rally came in the wake of its positive correlation with top-ranking cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), which gained over 2% and 3.75%, respectively. But, the upside move was also driven by a flurry of uplifting updates emerging from the EOS ecosystem.

EOS incentive program launch

On Aug. 14, the EOS Network Foundation (ENF), a nonprofit organization that oversees the growth and development of the EOS blockchain, opened registrations for its upcoming Yield+ incentive program.

The Yield+ is a liquidity incentive and reward program to attract decentralized finance (DeFi) applications that generate returns for their users. In doing so, the service attempts to compete with its top blockchain rivals in the DeFi space, namely Ether, Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL).

Since the beginning of Yield+ registration, the total value locked (TVL) inside the EOS pools has increased from 94.71 EOS to 102.18 EOS, showing a temporary spike in demand for the tokens. The TVL will likely increase in the days leading up to the reward activation on Aug. 28.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to range resistance on Aug. 17 amid ongoing concerns that a retracement is imminent.

No success for Bitcoin bulls

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $24,448 on Bitstamp, up 3.25% from the previous day’s low before diving $600 in under an hour.

The momentum gained speed on the day, but the bulls faced familiar resistance at levels keeping them broadly in check since mid-June. The past week’s trips to $25,000 and beyond remained brief breakouts beyond a two-month price ceiling.

Analyzing the scenario, veteran trader Peter Brandt eyed a rising wedge setup in progress for Bitcoin with $20,700 as its starting point.

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators was less convinced about the staying power of the current rally.

Play-to-earn (P2E) blockchain-based games gathered investors’ attention in late 2021, with Axie Infinity leading the pack with over 2 million active users. In P2E games, players are awarded tokens or nonfungible token assets (NFTs) as they progress throughout the game. These digital assets can be sold using marketplaces and cryptocurrency exchanges, generating income in a decentralized manner.

However, there is a large discrepancy between P2E and traditional PC and console gaming experiences. In that sense, crypto games are a couple of decades behind due to the restrictions imposed by blockchain technology.

Yes, most crypto games lack a decent user experience

Although the promise of AAA-level crypto games eventually developing exists, so far, most of the launches gravitate toward digital trading card battles, decentralized finance disguised as role-playing games, and collectibles.

Unsurprisingly, crypto games critics focus on the lack of fun, or a comparable user experience versus the traditional market, as pointed out by analyst Udi Wertheimer.

According to Anton Link, the CEO of NFT renting and leasing protocol Unitbox Protocol:

Bitcoin (BTC) showed weakness on Aug. 15, posting a 5% loss after testing the $25,000 resistance. The move liquidated over $150 million worth of leverage long positions and has led some traders to predict a move back toward the yearly low in the $18,000 range.

The price action coincided with worsening conditions for tech stocks, including Chinese giant Tencent, which is expected to post its first-ever quarterly revenue decline. According to analysts, the Chinese gaming and social media conglomerate is expected to post quarterly earnings around $19.5 billion, which is 4% lower than the previous year.

Moreover, on Aug. 16, Citi investment bank slashed Zoom Video Communications (ZM) recommendation to sell, adding that the stock is "high risk." Analysts explained that a challenging post-COVID dynamic, plus additional competition from Microsoft Teams, potentially caused a 20% drop in ZM shares.

The overall bearish sentiment continues to plague crypto investors, a movement described by influencer and trader @ChrisBTCbull, who mentioned that a simple rejection at $25,000 caused traders to post sub-$17,000 targets.

Margin traders remain bullish despite the $25,000 rejection

Monitoring margin and options markets provides excellent insights into understanding how professional traders are positioned. For instance, a negative read would happen if whales and market makers reduced their exposure as BTC approached the $25,000 resistance.

Solana (SOL) price rallied by approximately 75% two months after bottoming out locally near $25.75, but the token's splendid upside move is at risk of a complete wipeout due to an ominous bearish technical indicator.

A major SOL crash setup surfaces

Dubbed a "head-and-shoulders (H&S)," the pattern appears when the price forms three consecutive peaks atop a common resistance level (called the neckline). Notably, the middle peak (head) comes to be higher than the other two shoulders, which are of almost equal height.

Head and shoulders patterns resolve after the price breaks below their neckline. In doing so, the price falls by as much as the distance between the head's peak and the neckline when measured from the breakdown point, per a rule of technical analysis.

It appears SOL has been forming a similar bearish setup on its longer-timeframe charts.  

On the weekly chart, the token has been forming the right shoulder of the overall pattern, suggesting a correction toward the neckline at $27 during the second half of 2022. Meanwhile, a breakdown below $27 could result in an extended correction toward $2.80.

Bitcoin (BTC) sank to intraday support on Aug. 16 as concerns emerged over the fate of United States stock markets.

U.S. stocks face stiff resistance

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $23,685 on Bitstamp, nearing lows from Aug. 12.

After an eerily calm 24 hours, downside set in at the day's Wall Street open as previous highs in excess of $25,000 looked increasingly like a double top.

Analyzing the potential outcomes, a typically conservative Il Capo of Crypto warned that upside was now highly unlikely given Bitcoin's inability to break out.

"Two options, both bearish," he began a fresh Twitter update on the day by saying.

According to a fresh prediction from crypto analysis firm Arcane Research, miners will continue to sell more BTC than they earn.

Miners sold nearly 30% of record BTC stash since May

The trip to $25,000 this month decreased pressure on a Bitcoin mining sector which has struggled throughout 2022.

At one point, fears abounded that miners’ production cost was far higher than the Bitcoin spot price, and that heavy sales would result in order for miners to stay in business. Worse still, many may have to retire altogether due to their activities no longer being financially viable.

Data from the period since May appeared to confirm that major upheaval was taking place. As Arcane notes, one public miner alone — Core Scientific — sold around 12,000 BTC in the period from May to July.

While the trend showed signs of reversing last month, it will take even higher BTC prices to allow even the largest mining operators to hodl again.

Ether (ETH) rejected the $2,000 resistance on Aug. 14, but the solid 82.8% gain since the rising wedge formation started on July 13 certainly seems like a victory for bulls. Undoubtedly, the "ultrasound money" dream gets closer as the network expects the Merge transaction to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network on Sept. 16. 

Some critics point out that the transition out of proof-of-work (PoW) mining has been delayed for years and that the Merge itself does not address the scalability issue. The network’s migration to parallel processing (sharding) is expected to happen later in 2023 or early 2024.

As for the Ether bulls, the EIP-1559 burn mechanism introduced in August 2021 was essential to drive ETH to scarcity, as crypto analyst and influencer Kris Kay illustrates:

The highly anticipated move to the Ethereum beacon chain enjoyed a lot of criticism, despite eliminating the need to support the expensive energy-intensive mining activities. Below, “DrBitcoinMD” highlights the impossibility for ETH stakers to withdraw their coins, creating an unsustainable temporary offer-side reduction.

Undoubtedly, the decreased amount of coins available for sale caused a supply shock, especially after the 82.8% rally as Ether has recently undergone. Still, these investors knew the risks of ETH 2.0 staking and no promises were made for instant transfers post-Merge.

On Aug. 15, Bitcoin (BTC) price and the wider market corrected while the S&P 500 and DOW looked to build on four-straight weeks of robust gains. Data from TradingView and CNBC show the Dow pushing through its 200-day moving average, a first since April 21 and perhaps a sign for bulls that the market has bottomed. 

While equities markets have been strikingly bullish in the face of high inflation and a steady schedule of interest rate hikes, a number of traders fear that the current 32-day uptrend in the DOW and S&P 500 could be a bear market rally.

This week’s (Aug. 17) release of minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) should give more context to the Federal Reserve’s current view of the health of the United States economy and perhaps shed light on the size of the next interest rate hike.

For the past month, overly bullish crypto traders on Twitter have also been touting a narrative that emphasizes Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and altcoins selling off prior to FOMC meetings and then rallying afterward if the set rate aligns with investors' projected figure.

Somehow, this short-term dynamic also contributes to investors’ belief that the Fed will “pivot” away from its monetary policy of interest hikes and quantitative tightening after “inflation peaks.” This may be a somewhat profitable trade for savvy day-traders, but it’s important to note that inflation is currently at 8.5% and the Fed’s target is 2%, which is quite aways to go.

Bitcoin (BTC) enters a new week with a bang after sealing its highest weekly close since mid-June — can the good times continue?

After a volatile weekend, BTC/USD managed to restrict losses into the later portion of the weekend to produce a solid green candle on weekly timeframes.

In what could shape up to be the last “quiet” week of the summer, bulls have time on their hands in the absence of major macro market drivers involving the United States Federal Reserve.

Fundamentals remain strong on Bitcoin, which is due to an increase in its mining difficulty for the second time in a row in the coming days.

On derivatives markets, encouraging signs are also present, with higher price levels accompanied by bullish data over sentiment.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) broke out of its prevailing "cup-and-handle" pattern on Aug. 14, raising its prospects of securing additional gains in the coming weeks.

Shiba Inu could soar 50%

A cup-and-handle appears when the price falls and rises in a U-shaped trajectory in the first stage, followed by a swift move sideways or downward in the second. Notably, the price trend develops under a common resistance level.

Typically, cup-and-handle patterns resolve after the price breaks above the resistance level; SHIB did the same on Aug. 14 after rising 27% to $0.000016, as shown below.

Per the rule of technical analysis, a cup-and-handle breakout target is determined by measuring the distance between the pattern's lowest point and resistance line and adding it to the breakout point. As a result, SHIB could head toward $0.00002253.

In other words, a 50% price rally by September.

The S&P 500 rose for the fourth successive week as investors cheered on signs that inflation may have peaked. Bitcoin (BTC) and select altcoins also extended their recovery, suggesting that investors are increasing their exposure to risk assets.

A similar trend has played out in the cryptocurrency markets. Altcoins, led by Ether (ETH), have outperformed Bitcoin after clarity on Ethereum’s Merge, according to analysts at Glassnode.

However, trading firm QCP Capital is cautious about the momentum in the altcoin market. They highlighted that the open interest on Ether options had surged to $8 billion, exceeding Bitcoin option OI which was at $5 billion. Glassnode suggested that traders have been booking profits on the spread between their spot long Ether versus the quarterly short Ether futures positions.

Could Bitcoin and the altcoins extend their recovery in the next few days? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may outperform in the near term.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin rose above the overhead resistance of $24,668 on Aug. 13 and Aug. 14 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This indicates that bears are selling on rallies but repeated breach of an overhead resistance tends to weaken it.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked through $25,000 for the first time in months on Aug. 14, but traders refused to take any chances on a bull run.

Weekend produces brief $25,000 tap for BTC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a sudden run-up on BTC/USD, which hit $25,050 on Bitstamp in a $350 hourly candle.

The move took the pair to a new personal best since June 13, erasing more of the losses seen that day in what remains a significant BTC price correction.

Analyzing the market setup, however, familiar bearish tones remained. 

For popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto, the latest highs appeared to provide the last piece of the puzzle before a new downtrend set in.