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Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to claw back losses on July 27 as a macro day of reckoning arrived for risk assets.

Analysis: $24,300 resistance “not a good sign”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed a 24-hour high for BTC/USD prior to the Wall Street open on July 27.

The pair had sunk below $21,000 in the first portion of the week, heightening nervousness among traders already wary of potential headwinds from the United States Federal Reserve.

July 27 is set to reveal the Federal Open Markets Committee‘s (FOMC) next base rate hike, expectations flitting between 75 and 100 basis points in size but favoring the former. Both, however, are likely unfavorable for cryptocurrencies, as they reflect worries over both inflation and a willingness to bring the economy closer to recession to tame it.

“I will remain in my short while we are below the range high at $22,200,” popular analyst Crypto Tony summarized in part of his latest Twitter post on the day:

On July 26, Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below $21,000, giving back the majority of the gains accrued in the previous week and returning to the $23,300 to $18,500 range that Glassnode analysts describe as “the Week 30 high and Week 30 low.” 

A handful of analysts and traders attribute the July 26 to July 27 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the expected Federal Reserve rate hike as the primary reasons for the current sell-off.

Barring the announcement that the United States economy has entered a recession, a few traders believe that the expected 75 to 100 basis point (BPS) hike will be followed by a relief rally that could see BTC, Ether and other large-cap altcoins snack back to the top of their current range. Of course, this sentiment reflects more speculation than sound analysis, so take it with a grain of salt.

Given that BTC price is simply continuing to trade in the same range that it has been in for the past 42 days, the real question is whether the market will bring more consolidation or another round of capitulation.

In its July 26 on-chain newsletter, Glassnode analysts posit that investors can find their “conviction through confluence” of multiple technical and on-chain metrics which suggest the peak of capitulation has long past.

A new and relatively unknown DeFi token called BarnBridge (BOND) has rallied over 800% to reach $20 on July 26.

The BOND price surge comes more than a month after bottoming out at around $2.19. In comparison, top coins, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) have only rebounded by 18% and 54% in the same period, respectively.

Another pump and dump?

BarnBridge is a cross-chain risk management protocol that offers a suite of composable DeFi products for investors to hedge against interest rate fluctuations and price volatility.

Examples include SMART Yield — a product that enables investors to secure fixed rate yields from the debt pools of other projects such as Aave, Compound, Cream, or Yearn.finance — and SMART Exposure, which offers investors tools to rebalance portfolios.

BarnBridge's latest product, SMART Alpha, allows investors to hedge against price fluctuations and provides them leverage for bullish theses. Meanwhile, BOND serves as a governance token to the Ethereum-based DAO representing BarnBridge.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $21,000 for the first time in eight days on July 26 as Wall Street prepared for a decision on United States' anti-inflation policy.

Fed jitters test market resolve

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD ending a period of sideways action on the Wall Street open, hitting lows of $20,788 on Bitstamp.

Against its highs of $24,280 on July 20, the pair was now down over 14% as nerves across risk assets heightened in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates due July 27.

The higher the base rate hike by the Fed, the more problematic the outlook for crypto investors as more tightening would mean more conservative conditions prevailing across the economy. 

"BTC has lost the Higher Low, which represented a lower timeframe technical uptrend," he told Twitter followers alongside an illustrative chart.

Solana (SOL) dipped to a two-week low at around $35.50 on July 26, mirroring downside moves elsewhere in the crypto market. Nonetheless, technicals suggests that Solana's price flirts with the prospects of rising 40% in August.

SOL hits key inflection point

Ironically, the bullish setup for Solana emerges out of a classic bearish continuation pattern.

On the daily chart, SOL's price has been consolidating inside what appears to be a "bear flag," a technical pattern that develops during a downtrend and gets resolved after the instrument exits it with further price drops.

The so-called bear flag breakdown has not happened yet. Instead, SOL has been holding the lower trendline as support, raising possibilities of a sharp rebound toward the upper trendline, as illustrated in the chart below.

The rebound setup exposes SOL to a potential rally toward $49.50 in August, up 40% from today's price. The $49-$50 level had served as both support and resistance in May.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $21,000 on July 26 after it emerged that major the United States cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase was under investigation.

$21,000 now “super critical” for BTC bulls

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a swift reversion to lower levels for BTC/USD as reports emerged of fresh legal problems for Coinbase over securities trading.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Bloomberg originally reported, was looking into whether the exchange had allowed users to trade unregistered securities.

Part of a wider battle between the U.S. crypto industry and regulators over compliance, the move appeared to frighten the market, coming amid parallel allegations that a former executive conducted insider trading.

With that, Bitcoin was back to defending $21,000 as support on the day, with commentator Mark Cullen stressing that the level must hold for bulls to stay in control.

Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals. 

BTC's price has rallied roughly 25% after dropping to around $17,500 on June 18. The upside retrace came after a 75% correction when measured from its November 2021 high of $69,000.

The recovery seems modest, however, and carries bearish continuation risks due to prevailing macroeconomic headwinds (rate hike, inflation, etc.) and the collapse of many high-profile crypto firms such as Three Arrows Capital, Terra and others.

But some widely-tracked indicators paint a different scenario, suggesting that Bitcoin's downside prospects from current price levels are minimal. 

That big "oversold" bounce

The first sign of Bitcoin's macro bottom comes from its weekly relative strength index (RSI).

The total crypto market capitalization broke above $1 trillion on July 18 after an agonizing thirty-five-day stint below the key psychological level. Over the next seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) traded flat near $22,400 and Ether (ETH) faced a 0.5% correction to $1,560.

The total crypto capitalization closed July 24 at $1.03 trillion, a modest 0.5% negative seven-day movement. The apparent stability is biased toward the flat performance of BTC and Ether and the $150 billion value of stablecoins. The broader data hides the fact that seven out of the top-80 coins dropped 9% or more in the period.

Even though the chart shows support at the $1 trillion level, it will take some time until investors regain confidence to invest in cryptocurrencies and actions from the United States Federal Reserve could have the largest impact on price action.

Furthermore, the sit and wait mentality could be a reflection of important macroeconomic events scheduled for the week ahead. Broadly speaking, worse than expected data tends to increase investors' expectations of expansionary measures, which are beneficial for riskier assets like cryptocurrency.

The Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 26 and 27, and investors expect the United States central bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Moreover, the second quarter of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the broadest measure of economic activity — will be released on July 27.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to its realized price just below $22,000 on July 25 as Wall Street opened with a flat performance.

Bitcoin gives up more key levels

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it consolidated after falling from $23,000 overnight.

The pair echoed equities in cool trading prior to the July 27 United States Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. Analysts were expecting several days of volatility, and despite buyer interest in Bitcoin being strong below spot price, everything could still change.

“Big week ahead for the markets,” Umar Ashraf, founder of trading tool TradeZella, forecast.

“Tons of big names reporting earnings alongside with the FOMC starting Tuesday followed by the announcement on Wednesday. Big week doesn’t always mean market must see action, it could be a time period for the market to digest info for next move.”

Bitcoin (BTC) enters a new week with a question mark over the fate of the market ahead of another key United States monetary policy decision.

After sealing a successful weekly close — its highest since mid-June — BTC/USD is much more cautious as the Federal Reserve prepares to hike benchmark interest rates to fight inflation.

While many hoped that the pair could exit its recent trading range and continue higher, the weight of the Fed is clearly visible as the week gets underway, adding pressure to an already fragile risk asset scene.

That fragility is also showing in Bitcoin’s network fundamentals as miner strain becomes real and the true cost of mining through the bear market shows.

At the same time, there are encouraging signs from some on-chain metrics, with long-term investors still refusing to give in.

The bulls are attempting to achieve a strong weekly close for Bitcoin (BTC), while the bears are attempting to regain their advantage. Analysts are closely watching the 200-week moving average which is at $22,705 and BTC's current setup suggests that a decisive move is imminent. 

Many analysts expect a weekly close above the 200-week MA to attract further buying but a break below it could signal that bears are back in the game. Although the short-term picture looks uncertain, analyst Caleb Franzen said that Bitcoin has been in an accumulation zone since May.

Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant highlighted increasing outflows of Ether (ETH) from major exchanges, totaling $1.87 million coins on July 22. Usually, outflows from crypto exchanges suggest that traders are bullish for the long-term hence they may be moving their coins to safety.

Could Bitcoin resume its recovery, attracting buying in select altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that look strong on the charts.

BTC/USDT

The bears tried to sink Bitcoin back into the symmetrical triangle on July 23 but the bulls had other plans. The rebound off the breakout level from the triangle indicates that buyers are defending the level aggressively.

Axie Infinity (AXS) has been forming a giant bearish reversal pattern since July last year, which could send its prices down by another 95% in 2022.

AXS risks one big breakdown

Dubbed the "inverted cup and handle," the pattern is identified by its large crescent shape followed by a modest upward retracement. It typically resolves after the price breaks out of the rising channel, followed by another break below the cup-and-handle's neckline support.

Meanwhile, as a rule of technical analysis, an inverted cup and handle breakout leads the price to the level at length equal to the maximum distance between the structure's top and support.

AXS's price rally during the second half of 2021, followed by its complete wipeout in 2022, makes a crescent shape trend, which looks like an inverted cup. Furthermore, the recent 50% price rebound from the June 18's local bottom of $11.82 forms an inverted handle, as shown below.

Thus, AXS's technicals appear skewed to the downside, given it breaks below the inverted handle range with a breakdown target of $1, down about 95% from today's price.

Bitcoin (BTC) found strength at $22,000 into July 24 with bulls still aiming for a solid green weekly close.

Classic levels for end-of-week price focus

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD halting a weekend drop at $21,900 to return towards the $23,000 on the day.

The pair held a trading range closely focused on key long-term trendlines, which analysts had previously described as essential to reclaim.

These included the 50-day and 200-week moving averages (MAs), the latter particularly important as support during bear markets but which had acted as resistance since May.

“Bullish that we perfectly held the 13d ema + horizontal 21.9k,” popular Twitter trading account CryptoMellany argued in part of her latest update on the day.

The mood across the cryptocurrency ecosystem is noticeably brighter on July 22 after a week of gains helped traders put the events of the past two months behind them and look toward a positive future. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been oscillating around support at $23,000 over the past couple of days and continues to hold slightly above its 200-week moving average (MA), which has been a reliable indicator of bear market bottoms in the past.

As the debate about the market's direction continues to rage, here are the important levels to watch heading into the weekend, according to analysts.

Bitcoin needs weekly close above $22,800

The significance of Bitcoin trading above its 200-week MA was noted by independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who posted the following chart highlighting the major support and resistance zones:

According to van de Poppe, Bitcoin is “facing crucial resistance again” at $23,500, and what happens next will determine if its price heads higher or pulls back to support at $21,500. He explained: