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Bitcoin bulls remain bullish, but macro and crypto-specific hurdles have BTC pinned below $30K

On March 23, Bitcoin (BTC) price recovered the $28,000 support after a brief correction below $27,000. The movement closely tracked the traditional financial sector, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index, which gained 2.1% as Bitcoin surpassed the $28,000 threshold.

On March 22, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% but hinted that it is nearing its maximum level for 2023. In the end, however, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it is too soon to determine the extent of the tighter credit conditions, so monetary policy will remain flexible.

Initially, it appears encouraging that the central bank is less inclined to increase the cost of money. However, global economies are exhibiting signs of stress. For instance, consumer confidence in the euro area decreased by 19.2% in March, reversing five consecutive months of gains and defying economists’ predictions of an improvement.

The recession is still putting pressure on companies’ profits and leading to layoffs. For example, on March 23, professional services company Accenture said it would end the contracts of 19,000 workers over the next 18 months. On March 22, the company Indeed, which helps people find jobs, let go of 2,200 workers, or 15% of its staff.

The stronger the correlation to traditional markets, the less likely a decoupling. As a result, according to futures and margin markets, the Bitcoin price increase has not instilled much confidence in professional traders.

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BTC price centers on $28K as Deutsche Bank shares follow Credit Suisse

Bitcoin (BTC) diced with $28,000 at the March 24 Wall Street open as fresh banking woes failed to provide a further boost to crypto.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

Traders stay optimistic on BTC long-term trend

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD losing momentum to hit daily lows of $28,001 on Binance.

The pair was attempting to cement support after a classic comeback the day prior erased panic on the back of the latest United States economic policy moves.

The Federal Reserve hiked baseline interest rates by 0.25% on March 23, this along with mixed comments from Chair Jerome Powell serving to unsettle risk assets amid a lack of clear trajectory.

Related: Fed balance sheet adds $393B in two weeks — Will this send Bitcoin price to $40K?

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Fed balance sheet adds $393B in two weeks — Will this send Bitcoin price to $40K?

As of March 22, the Fed's balance sheet surged by nearly $94.5 billion — a $297 billion increase from the last week when the banking crisis started.

New QE hopes boost Bitcoin price

Overall, the U.S. central bank's liabilities increased by $393 billion in the last two weeks to $8.734 trillion. That is closer to the all-time high of $8.95 trillion a year ago when the Fed started its quantitative tightening program and reduced its assets by $600 billion.

Federal Reserve balance sheet as on March 24. Source: FRED

The Fed released the data on March 23, coinciding with Bitcoin (BTC) price rallying 5.5% toward $29,000. The rise occurred amid speculations that the Fed's expanding balance sheet results from quantitative easing (QE).

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

But the Fed did not use new dollar reserves to purchase long-term treasuries. Instead, the central bank dropped its U.S. Treasury holdings by $3.5 billion to $7.937 trillion, suggesting that quantitative tightening is still in place to curb inflation.

On the other hand, Fed's balance sheet grew because it dispatched short-term loans to the ailing banking sector.

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Justin Sun vs. SEC, Do Kwon arrested, 180M player game taps Polygon: Asia Express

Our weekly roundup of news from East Asia curates the industry’s most important developments.

Chinese crypto billionaire sued by SEC

On Mar. 22, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, announced charges against Chinese blockchain personality and billionaire Sun Yuchen — better known as Justin Sun — and three of his wholly-owned companies Tron Foundation Limited, BitTorrent Foundation Ltd., and Rainberry Inc. (formerly known as BitTorrent).

The complaint alleges that Sun and his companies “fraudulently” manipulated the secondary market for Tron (TRX) tokens through “extensive wash trading”, citing more than 600,000 such trades, and paying celebrities to promote TRX and BitTorrent (BTT) tokens with zero disclosure.

Multiple prominent American celebrities, such as Lindsay Lohan and Jake Paul, were named as defendants in their alleged roles in promoting TRX and BTT without proper disclosure. Some have since settled with the SEC. In addition, the SEC alleges that bounty programs and airdrops used to promote TRX and BTT were unregistered investments. Gary Gensler, chairman of the SEC, commented:

“As alleged, Sun and his companies not only targeted U.S. investors in their unregistered offers and sales, generating millions in illegal proceeds at the expense of investors, but they also coordinated wash trading on an unregistered trading platform to create the misleading appearance of active trading in TRX.” 

"Thx for your support & advice on how to take #TRON to the next level!," wrote Sun on Twitter following a $4.5M dinner with American billionaire investor Warren Buffet.
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Arbitrum airdrop sells-off at listing, but traders remain bullish on ARB

The official Arbitrum airdrop page crashed right after the claiming process began around 9 a.m. EST. Some users still managed to claim it through alternative methods like Arbiscan. In the first two hours, the market witnessed a massive sell-off of the token as its price declined from over $10.29 to lows of $1.

At ByBit, the token started trading for $7.50, but dropped to $1.50 within minutes. At the time of writing, the token was trading at $1.33.

Only one address successfully sold the token at $10.29 through the ARB/USDC pool on Uniswap, bagging $64,340 for 6,250 tokens. A few others were able to sell for $4.50, however, the price dropped quickly below $1.50 as more sellers arrived. 

ARB/USDC trades on Uniswap. Source: GeckoTerminal

Nansen data shows that out of 6.03 million ARB claimed by “smart money” wallets, $5.01 million were moved to a centralized or a decentralized exchange, most likely to sell. The analytics firm puts “smart money” tags on addresses that trade in significant size and are usually active.

Flow of ARB token across “smart money” wallets. Source: Nansen

While some smart money accounts added 3.45 million from DEXs. Overall, the amount moved to exchanges was 150% larger than inflows to the wallets, suggesting a massive sell-off.

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Bitcoin erases Fed losses as traders eye $40K BTC price target

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to near $29,000 on March 23 as bulls ignored news of a fresh United States regulatory crackdown.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin shrugs off Coinbase, Do Kwon arrest

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining almost 8% versus its overnight lows to challenge nine-month highs on Bitstamp.

The pair kept the volatility coming as the dust settled on the prior day’s interest rate decision and associated commentary from the Federal Reserve.

Despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell giving mixed signals over how and if rate hikes would continue, crypto market commentators argued that the sudden drop that Bitcoin witnessed had been over-the-top.

“Make sure to remember the panic and calls for lower next time you get a dip during a HTF uptrend,” popular trader Crypto Chase wrote in part of Twitter analysis.

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Why is Litecoin price up today?

Litecoin (LTC) emerged as one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies on March 23, surpassing its top-ranking rivals Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). 

Litecoin attracts Bitcoin and Ethereum investors

LTC price rallied 5.5% to reach an intraday high of around $92.50. In comparison, the total crypto market capitalization (TOTAL) has risen 2.25% to $1.14 trillion, with BTC and ETH rising 1.79% and 1.42%, respectively.

The Federal Reserve's 25 basis points (bps) rate hike on March 22 appears to be the key driver behind Litecoin beating its crypto rivals over the past 24 hours.

Notably, LTC price rallied over 15% versus BTC and about 14.5% versus ETH since the Fed announcement.

LTC/ETH and LTC/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

One reason could be that Litecoin has relatively underperformed the cryptocurrency market in March, dropping over 6.5% month-to-date (MTD) versus the crypto market's 9.35% gains.

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Ethereum faces 6-month lows versus Bitcoin — Will ETH price rebound?

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), continues its multimonth downtrend against Bitcoin (BTC) in March, rising 5.5% versus the latter’s 19.5% gains on a month-to-date timeframe.

Bitcoin overshadows Ethereum amid banking crisis

As of March 23, the ETH/BTC pair was down about 9% month-to-date to 0.0633 while staying on course to record its worst month since September 2022, when it fell 11.75%.

ETH/BTC monthly price chart. Source: TradingView

From a fundamental perspective, traders preferred Bitcoin over Ether, hoping it would protect them from the ongoing banking turmoil in the U.S. and other parts of the world. The narrative gained momentum in recent weeks as Wall Street investors like Cathie Wood see Bitcoin as a potential “flight to safety” asset.

As a result of the growing speculation, Bitcoin outperformed traditional assets after March 8, when signs of trouble appeared at Silicon Valley Bank. In doing so, BTC also fared better than the altcoin market combined, including Ethereum.

Bitcoin, S&P 500, gold and altcoin market performances in March. Source: TradingView 

ETH paints bullish fractal vs. BTC

However, from a technical perspective, Ethereum is positioned for a comeback versus Bitcoin.


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US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime

On the evening of Jan. 7, Anatoly Legkodymov, founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitzlato, was arrested in Miami. The following day, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) unsealed a complaint in federal court charging him with “conducting a money transmitting business that transported and transmitted illicit funds.” According to the DOJ, Bitzlato failed to meet U.S. regulatory safeguards, including Anti-Money Laundering requirements. 

Less than a month earlier, former FTX CEO Samuel Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas. In a statement, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said, “The Justice Department has filed charges alleging that Samuel Bankman-Fried perpetrated a range of offenses in a global scheme to deceive and defraud customers and lenders of FTX and Alameda, as well as a conspiracy to defraud the United States government.”

Garland stated, “The U.S. Department of Justice will aggressively investigate and prosecute alleged criminal wrongdoing in the financial system and violations of federal elections laws.” But is it really a new day? Will U.S. law enforcement be able to go after alleged crypto criminals at home and abroad?

According to Oberheiden PC attorney Alina Veneziano, who represents executive clients under criminal investigation against U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenas and DOJ fraud allegations, the answer is yes.

“Attempts to reign in this new, unrestrained industry were inevitable,” Veneziano tells Magazine. She believes that federal government agencies are increasing their investigative efforts toward crypto crime and will utilize all the tools at their disposal — subpoenas, summons and inter-governmental sharing of information.

Crypto Enforcement Action
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Arbitrum’s ARB token signifies the start of airdrop season — Here are 5 to look out for

Arbitrum developers announced an airdrop of its governance token, ARB, to eligible users and DAOs on the Ethereum Layer-2 platform. An average user received around 625 ARB tokens, which corresponds to around $625 to $1,250, according to pre-launch trading prices and popular estimations.

The prospect of earning free money has instilled excitement around users looking to hunt the next airdrop opportunity. The airdrop farming activity also benefits the protocols by attracting liquidity and usage to the platform. The strategy is working well for both protocol developers and users.

Moreover, the team's sale of a protocol’s token invokes securities laws, inducing significant legal risk for the developing teams. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that future protocols will use the same strategy to decentralize their protocols.

Here are five potential airdrop opportunities for this year.

zkSync Era

zkSync Era is a Layer-2 rollup on Ethereum based on the zero-knowledge (ZK) proof technology. Experts, including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, have argued that zk-based EVM-compatible rollups could be a game-changer technology with high scalability and throughput, leading to mass adoption.

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Bitcoin price whipsaws as Fed says rate hikes may not be ‘appropriate’

Bitcoin (BTC) saw heavy volatility on March 22 as the United States Federal Reserve hinted that it might stop interest rate hikes.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Powell on rates: “‘May’ and ‘some’ instead of ‘ongoing’”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed sharp moves both up and down for BTC/USD as the Fed hiked by an anticipated 25 basis points.

During a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to play down the ongoing U.S. banking crisis and its aftermath while hinting that the day’s interest rate hike may be the last.

In prepared remarks, Powell said that the Fed believes that “events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes.”

“It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects, and therefore too soon to tell how monetary policy should respond,” he stated.

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Ethereum price at $1.4K was a bargain, and a rally toward $2K looks like the next step

Ether's price (ETH) reached $1,400 on March 10, which proved to be a bargain as the cryptocurrency rallied 27.1% until March 21, at the time of writing. However, the three reasons that supported the price gain, including correlation with tech stocks, its increasing total value locked and its deflationary token economics, all suggest that the path to $2,000 is set in stone. 

There are numerous explanations for Ether's 19.4% decline over the past six months. The Shanghai hard fork upgrade was delayed from March to early April and after Shanghai, Ethereum's roadmap includes the "Surge," "Verge," "Purge," and "Splurge" updates. In reality, the longer these intermediate steps to achieve scalability take, the greater the likelihood that competing networks will demonstrate efficacy and possibly establish a competitive advantage.

Another potentially concerning issue on the minds of investors is the real chance of price impact when validators are finally able to unlock their 32 ETH deposits following the completion of the Shappela hard fork. While it is impossible to predict how many of the 16 million ETH currently staked on the Beacon Chain will be sold on the market. There is a compelling argument in favor of the transition to liquid staking platforms, as they can use liquid staking derivatives on other decentralized finance networks without sacrificing their staking yield.

Traders could construct a narrative based on regulatory uncertainty, especially after SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's September 2022 statement that proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies could be subject to securities laws. In February 2023, the SEC reached an agreement compelling the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken to cease offering crypto staking services to U.S.-based clients and the exchange also paid $30 million in disgorgement.

Correlation versus application-focused tech companies

To understand why Ether gained 15% in less than three days after briefly trading below $1,400 on March 10, traders must switch from a price-based analysis to a market capitalization comparison. On March 10, Ethereum’s market cap closed at $175 billion.

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Creating ‘organic’ generative art from robotic algorithms: Emily Xie, NFT Creator

New York’s Emily Xie is exploring the new frontier of digital art by combining her skills and passion for computer science and generative art. 

In a little under two years, since she minted her first NFT in March 2021, she has caught the attention of prolific collectors, such as Punk6529, DC Investor and Bob Loukas, and recently left her software engineering job to pursue life as a full-time artist. 

“I studied art history, took studio art courses, but also studied computational science and engineering. I made all sorts of art growing up, but it was more in a traditional media way. As a software engineer, I was always hoping to combine my love for programming as well as my love for art and creativity,” says Xie. 

“Generative Patchwork and Bullseye” by Emily Xie. (Hypemoon)

Discovering generative art

“I found that desire in generative art in around 2015–2016. It made a lot of sense making art with code. You don’t get any more of a direct and elegant combination than that of those two fields.”

“It’s so full of exploration. You’re engaging with technology in a way that’s creative because it exercises both sides of the brain, and that’s a rare thing to encounter.” 

Generative Patchwork and Bullseye by Emily Xie
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Why is Cardano price up today?

Cardano (ADA) rallied to its best price level in a month as cryptocurrency investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s looming interest rate decision.

Fed boosts appetite for cryptocurrencies like ADA

On March 22, ADA’s price surged by as much as 4.58% to $0.388, its highest level since Feb. 24. This bucked the trend as the total crypto market capitalization underperformed the Cardano token, dropping 0.4% on the same day. 

ADA/USD versus crypto market cap daily performance chart. Source: TradingView 

All eyes are on the Fed meeting on March 22 as chairman Jerome Powell tries to balance his anti-inflation campaign with a flurry of sudden banking collapses.

The Federal Reserve’s intervention to safeguard regional banks with emergency lending measures and hopes that it would be less hawkish in the future has helped top-ranking crypto assets rally in March, including Cardano.

ADA’s price is up by a decent 4% month-to-date versus top coin Bitcoin’s (BTC) 20% gains in the same period.


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Bitcoin $30K bets greet FOMC as analyst warns over long liquidations

Bitcoin (BTC) may “take out shorts” to crack $30,000 during the day’s key United States macroeconomic policy updates, analysis says.

As bets pile up over how BTC price will react to the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, $30,000 is in sight — but a drop to below $20,000 is not off the table.

Trader plans $30,000 profit-taking

Bitcoin is hours away from what popular trader Crypto Tony calls “one of the most anticipated” Fed meetings ever.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will decide on how to tweak baseline interest rates on March 22, amid suspicions that the ongoing U.S. banking crisis has disrupted policy.

From ongoing rate hikes forecast just last month, markets are now considering the chances that the Fed will pause the cycle, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.

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Bitcoin holds $28K due to spot buying, but institutional investors are still selling

Bitcoin’s price broke above the February 2023 highs of $25,200 after U.S. inflation data was in consensus with the market expectation. The potential fallout of the global banking system further promoted Bitcoin investment as a non-correlated global hedging instrument similar to gold in March. The correlation between gold and Bitcoin (BTC) has been rising since the start of the month.

Correlation coefficient between BTC and gold. Source: TradingView

However, institutions have become net sellers of Bitcoin in 2023, which raises some red flags. Bitcoin whales — wallets holding between 10 BTC and 10,000 BTC — have not participated in the current rally. It appears that retail investors are mainly driving the uptrend. The divergence between whale and retail investment could cause a short-term pullback in Bitcoin prices.

Institutions are forced BTC sellers, says analyst

Institutional crypto asset flows data from CoinShares reveals the largest two-week sell-off from investment funds since March 6. The outflows have erased the positive inflows for this year, with the net year-to-date flow equalling negative $177 million.

CoinShares’ data tracks the portfolio of global institutional funds with digital asset exposure, including Grayscale, CoinShares XBT, 21Shares, Purpose and 3iQ.

James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research, notes in the report that the flows “may be driven, in part, by the need for liquidity during this banking crisis, a similar situation was seen when the COVID panic first hit the market in March 2020.”

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Bitcoin hits new 9-month highs above $28K as markets flipflop over FOMC

Bitcoin (BTC) headed to new nine-month highs after the March 21 Wall Street open as a crucial Federal Reserve interest rate decision loomed.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price climbs despite conservative Fed view

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $28,500 on Bitstamp.

The latest in a succession of multi-month highs, the latest BTC price action precedes what promises to be a volatile day for markets.

The Fed will announce how far — if at all — it will hike its baseline interest rate on March 22, with a pause in the hiking cycle seen as a boon-in-waiting for risk assets.

“Heavily interested to see the outcome of tomorrow,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, wrote in part of a Twitter update.

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Speculators flock to Arbitrum IOU tokens ahead of this week’s ARB airdrop

Developers from the Arbitrum Foundation announced the launch of Arbitrum DAO and its native governance token, ARB, on March 16. Eligible users and developers will receive 12.75% of the token’s total supply of 10 billion on March 23, when the token will be deployed. 

Speculation around ARB began soon after the token launch announcement on OTC desks, derivatives exchanges and spot exchanges via IOUs (I Owe You).

BitMEX launched the derivatives contract for ARB June futures on Monday around 11 p.m. EST. The futures contracts were trading at around $1.30 at the time of writing, implying that traders are betting that ARB’s price will be near this amount by June’s end.

The futures contract allows speculators to bet on the token’s price and Arbitrum airdrop receivers to hedge their holdings. Eligible ARB holders can buy a short futures contract to sell ARB tokens at a specific amount, protecting them against the downside in the token’s price post-launch on Thursday.

ARB/USDT monthly derivatives contract price on BitMEX. Source: BitMEX

Some private Discord and Telegram OTC desks are witnessing active trading of ARB tokens for prices between $1 to $1.50. This trade is executed via a transfer of ownership of Ethereum wallets that are eligible for ARB airdrop.

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Best and worst countries for crypto taxes — plus crypto tax tips

Tax is a nightmare for compliance. And crypto taxes — which include a variety of innovative mechanisms and products that have no analog in traditional finance — are 10 times worse.

Complicating matters even further, the global industry operates across borders and jurisdictions. But there are definitely better and worse countries for the newly crypto-rich to base themselves as tax havens — even Americans who get followed around by the IRS with its hand out no matter where they are.

(The information provided is not legal or financial advice and should serve only as a starting point for further research.)

To start off, we need to define what income and capital gains are.

What is income for crypto tax?

Income tax generally covers things such as wages, dividends, interest and royalties. Within the context of digital assets, these might include income earned via mining, staking, lending, crypto-denominated salaries and even airdrops. 

Switzerland gets an A for effort with crypto taxes
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Investors shelter in short-term Treasuries, reducing Bitcoin’s chance of rallying to $30K

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $28,000 on March 21, but according to two derivatives metrics, traders aren't very ecstatic after a 36% gain in eight days. Looking beyond Bitcoin’s stellar performance, there are reasons why investors are not fully confident in further price upside The recent rescue of Credit Suisse, a 167-year-old leading Swiss financial institution, is proof that the current global banking crisis might not be over.

On March 19, Swiss authorities announced that UBS had agreed to acquire rival Credit Suisse in an "emergency rescue" merger in order to avoid further market-shaking turmoil in the global banking sector. The transaction could benefit from more than $280 billion in state and central bank support, which is equivalent to one-third of Switzerland's GDP. Unfortunately, there is no way to portray this agreement as reassuring or as a sign of strength from financial institutions, including central banks.

The same can be said for the emergency credit lifeline provided by the U.S. Treasury to protect the banking sector and increase FDIC reserves. The "Bank Term Funding Program" (BTFP) launched on March 12 marked a return to Fed liquidity injections, reversing the trend initiated in June 2022, when the Federal Reserve began monthly asset sales.

The global banking crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to abandon its inflation-control policies

By lending $300 billion in emergency funds to banks, the Fed completely reversed its strategy to curb inflation, which has been above 5% year-over-year since June 2021, whereas the target is 2%. This strategy, known as tightening, included increasing interest rates and reducing the $4.8 trillion in assets the Federal Reserve accumulated from March 2020 to April 2022.

On March 20,First Republic Bank (FRB) saw its credit ratings downgraded further into junk status by S&P Global, adding to the stress in the United States' regional banks. According to the risk agency, the lender's recent $30 billion deposit infusion from 11 large banks may not be enough to solve the FRB's liquidity problems.

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