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Bitcoin (BTC) spiked above $26,000 on March 14 as United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed mixed inflation signals.

CPI fuels 9-month BTC price highs

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as sudden volatility kicked in on the release of February’s CPI numbers.

Inflation climbed 6% year-on-year, while the month-on-month figure was 0.4% — both in line with expectations. Items excluding food and energy increased by 0.5%, slightly higher than forecast.

Bitcoin appeared to react positively to the data, which allowed the Federal Reserve to avoid being trapped between stickier inflation and avoiding interest rate hikes amid an ongoing banking crisis.

Reacting, Venturefounder, a contributing analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, suggested that the market was now anticipating a “pivot” on hikes — a key boon for risk assets more broadly.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 14.4% between March 12-13 after it was confirmed that financial regulators had rescued depositors in the failing Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The intraday high of $24,610 may not have lasted long, but $24,000 represents a 45% increase year-to-date.

On March 12, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chair Martin Gruenberg issued a joint statement to reassure SVB depositors.

Regulators also announced a systemic risk exception for Signature Bank (SBNY), an intervention designed to compensate depositors for losses incurred by the previous management. Signature Bank was one of the most prominent financial institutions serving the cryptocurrency industry alongside Silvergate Bank, which announced its voluntary liquidation last week.

To avert a larger crisis, the Fed and Treasury devised an emergency program to supplement all deposits at Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank with funds from the Fed's emergency lending authority. According to the regulators' joint statement, "no losses will be borne by the taxpayer," although the strategy for deploying Treasury assets is questionable.

The stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) also caused significant turmoil in the cryptocurrency industry after breaking below its 1:1 peg with the U.S. dollar on March 10. The fear grew after the issuing management company Circle confirmed that $3.3 billion in reserves were held at Silicon Valley Bank.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit its highest since the start of the month on March 13 as U.S. bank stocks saw the largest mass halt in history.

BTC price sees “phenomenal” rebound

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a thoroughly bullish hourly candle for BTC/USD, which reached $23,725 on Bitstamp.

The move was eagerly anticipated by market participants, many of whom had warned of extreme volatility at the Wall Street open.

This came true, with Bitcoin and altcoins benefiting from intense uncertainty surrounding bank stocks, in particular, as trading got underway.

The fallout from the failure of two more U.S. banks over the weekend was keenly felt, not just at home but in Europe, where banks also saw heavy losses.

The panic caused due to USD Coin’s (USDC) depeg from the U.S. dollar manifested itself in a wrong order, costing traders $50,000 per Bitcoin (BTC), albeit for several minutes.

Bitcoin price sees $50K in “fat finger” error 

The BTC/USDC pair on Binance flash spiked to $50,000 on March 12 around 7:00 pm UTC. The reason for the impulse spike is unknown and was likely due to a “fat finger” trade of a large order.

The potential reason for the flash spike is likely due to thin order books for the newly launched BTC/USDC pair on Binance. The exchange listed the pair only a few hours before the impulse price surge.

According to a trader on Crypto Twitter, it is likely that a Bitcoin market order ate through the limit sell-orders on the pair up to $50,000.

The pair’s trading price returned toward the market spot price of around $22,000 in minutes following the spike, suggesting it was an isolated incident. Fortunately, the futures market remained unaffected by the spot BTC/USDC pair; otherwise, it could have triggered massive short-side liquidations.

Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week with a bullish surge above $22,000 as the Federal Reserve injects liquidity into the United States economy.

In a move which can rival any classic Bitcoin comeback, BTC/USD is up a full 15% off the two-month lows seen on March 10.

The volatility — and at least temporary relief for bulls — is all due to events in the U.S. after the failure of one bank and the forced halting of another’s operations.

Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are the latest victims in a brutal year for financial institutions under the Fed’s rising interest rates — will the trend continue?

Despite Signature being crypto focused and a major on-ramp from fiat, crypto markets have so far seen no reason to abandon optimism at the prospect of the Fed providing fresh money.

Bitcoin (BTC) refused to let $20,000 support die for good on March 11 as the weekend opened to a battle for lost ground.

Bitcoin shakes off USDC depeg

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $20,200 at the time of writing.

A brief dip below the $20,000 mark overnight was short-lived, and the mood appeared more stable as the initial panic over United States bank stability subsided.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which followed Silvergate in dealing a fresh blow to some crypto firms, nonetheless continued to play out.

At the heart of the debacle was payments technology company Circle, which overnight revealed it had part of the reserve funds for its stablecoin, USD Coin (USDC), with SVB.

Ethereum’s upcoming Shanghai upgrade will allow users to withdraw staked Ether (ETH), increasing the network’s liquidity and competitiveness while also boosting its staking ratio closer to its competitors.

The Shanghai upgrade is a hard fork of Ethereum tentatively scheduled to occur in March. It implements five Ethereum Improvement Proposals, the headliner being EIP-4895, which allows users to withdraw their locked-up tokens representing staked Ether from the Beacon Chain.

The ability to withdraw staked Ether could increase market liquidity and make it easier for users to access their funds. Ethereum liquid staking platforms, which largely emerged to alleviate the blockchain’s prohibitive lock-up and staking requirements, could also benefit from the upgrade.

Since the Ethereum network moved to proof-of-stake (PoS) in September 2022, increasing the percentage of staked Ether has become important to help secure the protocol. But many have hesitated to stake their ETH due to the unavailability of withdrawals. Consequently, only around 15% of ETH is currently staked, while all other major layer-1 networks have a staking ratio above 40%.

According to The DeFi Investor, many investors will opt for a liquid staking option following the Shanghai upgrade, as they can utilize liquid staking derivatives on other decentralized finance networks without forfeiting their staking yield.

Big round numbers always pique the interest of investors and the $1 trillion total crypto market capitalization is no exception. It’s a level that held for 48 days before collapsing on March 9. After a 16-hour negative 8.6% price movement, the indicator fell to $914 billion, its lowest level since Jan.13.

Concerns about the stability of the U.S. banking industry, specifically the downfall and subsequent closure of Silvergate Bank (SI) on March 8 and the shut down of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10 by The California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, are among the reasons for breaking below the $1 trillion capitalization support. Silvergate was a critical fiat gateway network for the most important cryptocurrency exchanges and intermediaries.

The California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation did not provide an explanation for SVB Bank's closure. Nonetheless, it stated that the financial institution will be the first FDIC-insured institution to fail in 2023.

Silicon Valley Bank possessed more than $200 billion in assets and provided financial services to a number of crypto-focused venture firms, including Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital.

Don't forget, however, the ongoing efforts of the U.S. Federal Reserve to curb inflation, which include increasing interest rates above 2% in August 2022 and reducing its balance sheet through asset sales. In addition to this, U.S. labor market data released on March 10 revealed the creation of 311,000 jobs in February 2023, supporting the notion that the Fed's anti-stimulus measures require additional firepower.

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to reclaim $20,000 support at the March 10 Wall Street open as fears mounted over Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) contagion.

Trader targets $18,000 BTC price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it nursed fresh losses, reaching $19,569 on Bitstamp. 

The pair had seen further downside prior to the open as embattled SVB Financial saw another 60% wiped off its stock price.

In a move that mimicked crypto exchange banking partner Silvergate, SVB also began to spark knock-on effects for non-U.S. banks on the day.

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, the writing was on the wall.

Dogecoin (DOGE) pared some losses versus Bitcoin (BTC) on March 10, a day after the DOGE/BTC pair fell to its lowest level since October 2022. Can DOGE price see an extended rebound ahead? 

On the daily chart, the DOGE/BTC pair reached 331 sats, up 4.75% compared to the previous day's low of 316 sats. The bounce occurred around a multi-month descending trendline, which has capped the pair's downside moves since November 2022.

DOGE price vs. BTC

Interestingly, the DOGE/BTC descending trendline appears part of a prevailing falling wedge pattern. Traditional chart analysts consider the falling wedge a bullish reversal setup, notably because of the pattern's 62% success rate in meeting its upside price targets. 

In Dogecoin's case, the price is wobbling around its falling wedge's apex point, where its upper and lower trendline converge. DOGE's latest rebound from the lower trendline increases its possibility of testing the upper trendline for a breakout, as illustrated in the chart below.

The upside setup further draws support from the DOGE/BTC's daily relative strength index (RSI) with a reading of around 28. From a technical perspective, an RSI below 30 means the pair is oversold, which could prompt its price to consolidate sideways or rebound.

March started off on a low due to a resurrection of inflationary fears. On March 7, hawkish comments from United States Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell amplified the market’s expectation of a 50-basis point hike in the upcoming policy rate meeting on March 22 to March 23. 

On March 8, the U.S. government’s $1 billion Bitcoin (BTC) transfer of assets seized from Silk Road sparked fears of a sell-off. Later on the same day, the largest crypto-friendly bank confirmed its collapse and planned to liquidate its crypto positions voluntarily. The week’s events sent Bitcoin to a two-week low of $20,050.

A spike in negative sentiment may preclude a bounce

The flurry of bad news and price drops caused a significant dip in CryptoQuant's Coinbase premium index, which measures the difference in trading prices on Coinbase and Binance. Higher prices indicate stronger demand in the U.S. versus the rest of the world. The premium dipped to a two-month low on the morning of March 9 as negative news piled on.

On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported fear, doubt and uncertainty (FUD) settling in the markets, increasing the “probabilities” of contrarian price bounces during this “period of disbelief.“

However, the funding rate for BTC perpetual swaps is still neutral, with no major liquidations in the futures market. It doesn’t show considerable negative bias to suggest the possibility of a short squeeze. The Fear and Greed Index also slipped to two-month lows of 44 but stayed well above historic bounce levels between 10 to 25. This suggests that any positive rallies are likely to be short-lived. 

XRP’s (XRP) price extended its gains on March 9, rising around 1.5% to $0.40, despite a general downturn in the cryptocurrency market.

XRP price four-day winning streak

The rally in the XRP/USD pair started on March 5 with the XRP market capitalization gaining over 10% in the past four days.

In contrast, the entire crypto market capitalization has dropped by about 5% in the same period, with top coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) losing 4.5% and 4%, respectively.

Ripple scores early win versus SEC 

XRP’s gains appear as investors pin their hopes on Ripple winning its long-running courtroom battle against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

On March 6, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres issued a ruling on motions filed by Ripple and the SEC to exclude the comments of expert witnesses from the upcoming summary judgment. She approved and denied the motions in part, underscoring no clear winner and loser in the matter.

Bitcoin (BTC) rested at multi-week support at the March 9 Wall Street open as concerns over a deeper BTC price drop increased.

Trader: $19,700 "on the table"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $21,800 on Bitstamp.

With $22,000 in danger of flipping from support to resistance, popular trader Pentoshi was among those warning that further undoing of support may come next.

“We made it. Best r/r currently however not a fan of the slow bleed. Would have liked a SFP (one may still come),” he wrote in an update on a prior BTC price forecast.

“Below this can get ugly w 19.7-20.5k on the table.”

Bitcoin (BTC) traders remain sensitive even to small price movements as data shows liquidations climbing.

As BTC/USD approaches $21,600 on March 9, those who are long BTC are seeing positions evaporate.

Longs begin to disappear with BTC at three-week lows

Despite consensus forming around Bitcoin retesting $20,000, small shifts in price are still taking a toll on traders.

According to data from monitoring resource Coinglass, March 8 saw $24.4 million of BTC longs liquidated — the highest tally in almost a week.

This coincided with BTC/USD heading to three-week lows, abandoning $22,000 as support. The downtrend continues at the time of writing, while liquidations for the day remain negligible.

Bitcoin’s price (BTC) fell below a four-day narrow trading range near $22,400 on March 7 following comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he sat before a Senate banking committee. During the congressional appearance, the Fed chairman warned that the bank is prepared to tame inflation by pushing for more significant interest rate increases.

Fed Chair Powell added that "the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated," and that recent economic data was "stronger than expected." These remarks significantly increased investors' expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate hike on March 22, putting pressure on risk assets such as stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin.

That movement could explain why the $565 million Bitcoin weekly options expiry on March 10 will almost certainly favor bears. Nonetheless, additional negative crypto market events might have also played a significant role.

Bitcoin from the Silk Road and Mt. Gox are on the move

The movement of multiple wallets linked to U.S. law enforcement seizures on March 8 added to the price pressure on Bitcoin investors. Over 50,000 Bitcoin worth $1.1 billion were transferred, according to data shared by on-chain analytics firm PeckShield.

Furthermore, 9,860 BTC were sent to Coinbase, raising concerns about the coins being sold on the open market. These wallets are directly linked to the former Silk Road darknet marketplace and were seized by law enforcement in November 2021.