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Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $24,000 at the Feb. 27 Wall Street open as a strong weekly close translated into further gains.

Bitcoin gains $1,000 versus weekend lows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD rebounding in line with United States equities futures.

The pair had seen lows of $22,770 on Bitstamp over the weekend, these nonetheless proving short lived as the weekly candle closed above $23,500.

With stocks rebuilding strength into the new week, hopes were high that Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory to finish February on a high.

“Rejecting at crucial $23.8K level would indicate that we´ll be having another test of the support,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, wrote in part of a Twitter update on the day.

Bitcoin (BTC) keeps pushing for a bullish end to February as the monthly close starts another week’s price action.

The largest cryptocurrency looks set to preserve its gains as it closes the second month of 2023 — and is keeping bulls’ hopes alive in the process.

Can the good times continue? The coming week could mean decision time for a key area of BTC price action around $25,000.

Analysts are eyeing a breakout toward $30,000 if support can become more permanent, while concerns nonetheless remain that a trip back towards resistance reclaimed in January is still on the cards.

Amid a quiet week for macroeconomic data, any catalysts for determining whether BTC/USD goes up or down may come from within Bitcoin itself.

The cryptocurrency markets and the United States equities markets witnessed profit-booking this week as the macroeconomic data hinted toward continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin (BTC) is down more than 4% and the S&P 500 fell 2.7% to record its worst week of the year. 

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 73% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed in the March meeting but after the hotter-than-expected inflation readings in two weeks, the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike has started to slowly gain traction.

During periods of uncertainty, some coins enter a deeper correction while a few buck the trend and continue to outperform. Hence, it becomes important to select the right coins to trade.

A few coins that have witnessed a shallow correction or have bounced sharply off the support have been selected in this list. Let’s see their charts and determine the levels to watch out for.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plunged below the 20-day exponential moving average ($23,391) on Feb. 24 but the bears could not build upon this advantage and sustain the price below the strong support at $22,800.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to end the week above $23,000 into the Feb. 26 close as concerns heightened over stubborn resistance.

BTC price bulls keep faith in $30,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $23,318 on the day, up $600 from its weekend lows.

The latest move marked a modest comeback after a grim week for risk assets which saw United States equities suffer thanks to above-expected inflation data.

Despite that, Bitcoin still remained below levels flagged by analysts as important to reclaim before the end of the month.

Only isolated voices remained optimistic, these including popular trader Kaleo, who maintained that $30,000 remained a BTC price “magnet.”

Bitcoin (BTC) threatened to ditch $23,000 as support on Feb. 25 as an ongoing price correction strengthened into the weekend.

BTC price support inches lower

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD attempting to decide the fate of the $23,000 mark on the day.

The pair had lost almost $1,000 on Feb. 24, ending the week in a limp position along with United States equities while the dollar gained.

With “out-of-hours” trading now in place until Monday, chances for thinner liquidity to spark more pronounced moves heightened.

Analyzing the state of the Binance order book, monitoring resource Material Indicators confirmed the continued existence of a major line of bid support informally known as the “Notorious B.I.D.” and “great wall.”

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price rally from $16,500 to $25,000 can be attributed to a short squeeze in the futures market and recent macroeconomic improvements. However, while prices increased, data suggests that many interested buyers (including whales) were left on the sidelines. 

The recent rally to $25,000 shared many similarities with the 2019 bear market rally, which saw a 330% surge in Bitcoin’s price to highs around $14,000 from the November 2019 low at $3,250. Recently, the BTC/USD pair rose 60% from its November 2022 low.

On-chain and market indicators relative to the 2019 rally are sending mixed signals on whether or not Bitcoin's rally will continue. Nevertheless, there are strong reasons to believe that the market has reached a crucial turning point where it can either turn into a full-fledged bull market or slump back into a long-term bear trend.

Let’s look at the top five indicators to understand the current price dynamic relative to the 2019 bull run.

Bitcoin tackles historical trading levels

Bitcoin’s price surpassed the 200-day moving average (MA) at $19,600, which could encourage paper traders looking to open a long position. Historically, this metric has acted as a bull-bear pivot line, with breakouts above it being bullish and vice versa.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed lower at the Feb. 24 Wall Street open as United States macroeconomic data showed inflation biting back.

PCE sparks fresh doubts on inflation

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it traded in a narrowing range around $23,800.

The pair attempted to reclaim $24,500 the day prior, but it ultimately proved unsuccessful, as resistance kept gains in check.

Bitcoin nonetheless saw only a muted reaction to the latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index print, which was 4.7% instead of the 4.3% forecast — suggesting that inflation was not ebbing as quickly as hoped.

For popular commentator Tedtalksmacro, this will cause the Federal Reserve to consider a larger interest rate hike at its March meeting — a potential headwind for risk assets including crypto.

Bitcoin (BTC) stands at the start of a “new regime” after its early 2023 price gains, and next year will prove pivotal.

That is the opinion of Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments.

As investment behavior around Bitcoin recovers in line with network fundamentals and price action, Edwards, perhaps like many other institutional professionals, is gearing up for an explosive period of growth.

The jury may still be out on whether the bottom is in for BTC’s price, but for long-term investors, the time to allocate is just beginning, he argues.

In an extensive interview with Cointelegraph, Edwards reflects on the prospects for Bitcoin and the crypto industry in the coming years and whether the 2023 rebound has legs.

It’s possible that many people have already forgotten that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price closed 2022 at $16,529 and the recent rebound and rejection at the $25,000 level could raise concern among certain investors. Bears are pushing back at the $25,000 level and there has been multiple failed attempts at the level between Feb. 16 and Feb. 21. Currently, it looks like the $23,500 resistance is continuing to gain strength with every retest. 

Pinpointing the rationale behind Bitcoin’s 45.5% year-to-date gain is not apparent, but part of it comes from the United States Federal Reserve’s inability to curb inflation while raising interest rates to its highest level in 15 years. The unintended consequence is higher government debt repayments and this adds further pressure to the budget deficit.

It’s virtually impossible to predict when the Fed will change its stance, but as the debt to gross domestic product ratio surpasses 128, it should not take longer than 18 months. At some point, the value of the U.S. dollar itself could become endangered due to extreme debt leverage.

On Feb. 23, the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued a joint statement encouraging U.S. banks that rely on funding from the crypto sector to prevent liquidity runs by maintaining strong risk management practices. Regulators said the report was spurred by “recent events” in the industry due to increased volatility risks.

Let's look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Bitcoin's (BTC) 16% price gain between Feb. 13 and Feb. 16 practically extinguished the bears' expectation for a monthly options expiry below $21,500. As a result of the abrupt rally, these bearish bets are unlikely to pay off, especially since the expiry occurs on Feb. 24. However, bulls were not counting on the strong price rejection at $25,200 on Feb. 21, and this reduces their odds of securing a $480 million profit in this month’s BTC options expiry.

Bitcoin investors' primary concern is a stricter monetary policy as the U.S. Federal Reserve increases interest rates and reduces its $8 trillion balance sheet. Feb. 22 minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed that members were in consensus on the most recent 25 basis point rate hike and that the Fed is willing to continue raising rates as long as deemed necessary.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC on Feb. 22 that a more aggressive interest rate hike would give them a better chance to contain inflation. Bullard said:

"Let's be sharp now, let's get inflation under control in 2023."

If confirmed, the increased interest rate pace would be negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin, as it draws more profitability for fixed-income investments.

The price action of Optimism (OP) and Fantom (FTM) tokens have been quite identical since the last quarter of 2022. The difference is, volatility is slightly higher for OP, which surged 240% year-to-date, compared to the 180% gains seen in FTM.

The Fantom Foundation has made several improvements since Q4 2022, which have catalyzed an uptrend in the token’s price. However, Fantom’s ecosystem remains primitive while its competitors expanded to support new use cases.

On the other hand, Optimism has shown robust community and decentralized application (dApp) development thanks to the loyalty of Ethereum developers and the Optimism Foundation’s effective strategy in aligning token incentives with governance.

Fantom’s ecosystem development stalls

The Fantom ecosystem received an adverse blow in early 2022 due to the departure of leading DeFi architect Andre Cronje. The blockchain’s ecosystem development stalled after Cronje’s departure. At the same time, Fantom’s competitors, like Polygon (ATOM), Arbitrum and Optimism continued to host various popular applications.

Cronje rejoined Fantom development efforts in November 2022, however, it appears it was too late by then. The lack of sustainable yields in a bear market has restricted liquidity inflows to Fantom.

An anonymous Ethereum investor has lost more than $2 million trading Ether (ETH) since Sep. 9, 2022, on-chain data shows.

Buying Ethereum high, selling low

Spotted by on-chain monitoring resource Lookonchain, the "stupid money" trader spent $12.5 million in stablecoins to buy 7,135 ETH after it rallied 10% to $1,790 in September 2022. But a subsequent correction forced the trader to sell the entire stash for $10.51 million. 

As a result, the trader lost nearly $1.75 million. Interestingly, waiting and selling at today's price would have resulted in a smaller loss of $1.14 million.

The investor's trades reemerged in February as ETH price had risen by approximately 10%. Data shows that $7.65 million in ETH was acquired on Feb. 16, only to sell it eight hours later as ETH price dropped, resulting in a loss of another $324,000.

3 Ethereum investment lessons to learn

Traders can use such examples to learn from others' mistakes and reduce their investment risks with proven strategies. Let's take a look at some of the most basic tools that can help reduce losses. 

Bitcoin (BTC) can hit $10 million per coin or more as it eats 25% of the global wealth, new analysis has concluded.

In a blog post released on Feb. 16, fund manager and Bitcoin expert advisor Jesse Myers revealed his own “outrageous” BTC price target.

Myers: "Bitcoin could 500x over the coming decades"

Bitcoin may struggle with “brutal” volatility, but hodlers and critics alike should be in no doubt about its long-term price trajectory, Myers says.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s value proposition, he argues that Bitcoin’s ability to appreciate over time means that it is all but destined to suck in value from other asset classes.

Among other reasons, this is because an asset with such appreciation characteristics and increasing scarcity allows it to fulfill the role of “digital gold.”

The capacity of Bitcoin’s Lightning Network (LN) recently surpassed an all-time high of 5,000 Bitcoin (BTC). 

The Lightning Network is a neutral protocol built on top of Bitcoin, and it currently does not have a “native” token attached to it like many decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms.

Although the Lightning Network’s total liquidity is less than 0.5% of the Ether (ETH) in DeFi contracts, the uptrend in Bitcoin’s LN capacity versus a downtrend in the amount of ETH locked in smart contracts is encouraging for LN development.

While the liquidity on the LN has been rising consistently, the number of channels on the peer-to-peer network dropped drastically in November following the FTX collapse. It could be due to an exodus of miners operating LN nodes besides running mining clients.

However, the likely end of miner capitulation and the rise of Bitcoin-based applications like nonfungible tokens could mark an end to LN channel capitulation. Since the start of 2023, over 2,000 new channels have been added to the network.

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers need to watch the central banks of China and Japan as well as the United States as BTC/USD battles “huge” resistance.

That was the opinion of trading firm QCP Capital, which in its latest crypto market research piece, “The Crypto Circular,” warned that Bitcoin faces risks far beyond the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin “most direct global liquidity proxy”

Having survived the latest flood of macroeconomic data from the U.S., Bitcoin is nonetheless flagging right below $25,000 as bulls run out of momentum.

For QCP Capital, there is now reason to believe that risk factors for price performance will come not just from the Fed — but China and Japan.

Market participants must now contend with such issues as China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) as well as the U.S. equivalent, along with Japanese central bank policy changes.

In technical analysis, a flag pattern indicates short-term price movements inside a parallelogram coounter to the previous long-term trend. Traditional analysts view flags as potential trend continuation indicators.

There are two types of flag patterns: bull flag and bear flag. While their outcomes are different, each flag exhibits five key characteristics, as listed below:

In this article, we discuss bull and bear flag patterns and how to trade them.

What is a bull flag pattern?

A bull flag is a technical pattern that appears when the price consolidates lower inside a downward-sloping channel after a strong uptrend. The said channel comprises two parallel, rising trendlines. Kindly note that the pattern could be a wedge or a pennant if the trendlines converge.

The volume typically dries up during consolidation, implying that traders associated with the preceding trend have less urgency to buy or sell during the consolidation period.

Bitcoin (BTC) wicked to five-day lows on Feb. 22 as a comedown for United States equities continued.

Analyst on Bitcoin: "Waiting for a bit lower"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView recorded lows of $23,871 on Bitstamp, with S&P 500 futures slipping under 4,000 ahead of the Wall Street open.

Bitcoin bulls had lost ground after the U.S. holiday weekend, which ended in weakness across equities and a failed attempt to flip $25,000 to support.

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, who was hoping that the correction would be short lived, it was nonetheless time to wait and see.

"Markets correcting as U.S. indices are also correcting at this point. This means, opportunities!" he told Twitter followers on the day.