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Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $24,000 at the Feb. 17 Wall Street open as analysis favored “consolidation and continuation” higher.

Bitcoin faces key level to “break” bear trend

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD recovering some overnight losses after dipping to $23,369 on Bitstamp.

The pair had hit fresh six-month highs the day prior, these facing stiff resistance in the form of two weekly moving averages (MAs) and a heavy sell wall.

Scott Melker, the trader and podcast host known as “The Wolf Of All Streets,” stressed the importance of levels acting as lines in the sand for bulls.

“$25,212. I’ve been screaming about this number for weeks. A break above (ideally close) makes a higher high for the first time since $69,000,” he tweeted about the weekly chart on Feb. 16.

A Bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has flashed green for just the fourth time ever this week in a major warning to bears.

In a tweet on Feb. 16, crypto market analyst Mohit Sorout announced that the dollar cost average (DCA) indicator was now “suggesting a raging bull market.”

DCA breakout last preceded 640% BTC price upside

The latest Bitcoin metric to flip bullish on long timeframes, the DCA indicator is even getting attention from major Bitcoin investment circles.

Its buy signals are rare, with Sorout seeing just three throughout Bitcoin’s history, each precluding serious BTC price upside.

“Today marks the 4th time this signal is suggesting a raging bullmarket,” he wrote in comments, describing the event as “the mother of all btc bullish signals.”

Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied over 12% on Feb. 15, marking the highest daily close in more than six months. Curiously, the movement happened while gold reached a 40-day low at $1,826, indicating some potential shift in investors' risk assessment for cryptocurrencies.

A stronger than expected U.S. inflation report on Feb. 14 presented 5.6% growth year-over-year, followed by data showing resilient consumer demand caused traders to rethink Bitcoin's scarcity value. U.S. retail sales increased by 3% in January versus the previous month — the highest gain in almost two years.

On-chain data indicates that the recent gains can be traced back to a mysterious institutional investor that started buying on Feb. 10. According to Lookonchain's data, nearly $1.6 billion in funds have flowed into the crypto market between Feb. 10 and Feb. 15. The analysis showed that three notable USD Coin (USD) wallets sent out funds to various exchanges around the same time.

More importantly, news emerged that the Binance exchange is preparing to face penalties and settle eventual outstanding regulatory and law-enforcement investigations in the U.S., according to a Feb. 15 Wall Street Journal report. The exchange's chief strategy officer, Patrick Hillmann, added that Binance was "highly confident and feeling really good about where those discussions are going."

Let's look at derivatives metrics to understand better how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) continues to monitor the overheated economy, the most likely scenario is further interest rate hikes to curb inflation. The unintended consequence is the heightened government debt cost, creating a bullish environment for scarce assets such as commodities, stock market and cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin’s price gain practically extinguished bears expectation for a sub-$21,500 options expiry on Feb. 17, so their bets are unlikely to pay off as the deadline approaches.

Bitcoin investors' primary concern is the possibility of further impacts from regulators following the staking rewards program by the Kraken exchange being halted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Feb. 9 and the crackdown on Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin issuing on Feb. 13.

Even if the newsflow remains negative, bulls still can profit in Friday's Feb. 17 options expiry by keeping the BTC price above $22,500, but the situation can easily flip and favor bears.

Bears were not expecting the $22,000 level to hold

The open interest for the Feb. 17 options expiry is $675 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$22,000 price levels. These traders became overconfident after Bitcoin traded below $21,500 on Feb. 13.

Bitcoin (BTC) trended toward $24,000 at the Feb. 16 Wall Street open after fresh macroeconomic data from the United States overshot estimates.

Hot U.S. PPI data "rattles" markets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD retracing some of its latest gains on the day, trading at around $24,400 on Bitstamp at the time of writing.

The pair had hit $24,895 on Bitstamp overnight, marking its highest levels in six months as a surprise rally appeared to catch many traders off-guard.

Over the two days to Feb. 16, $80 million in short positions were liquidated on Bitcoin alone, with $65 million coming on Feb. 15 — the most in a single day since Jan. 20.

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) print for January nonetheless extinguished some of the excitement on risk assets as it showed prices increasing more than expected on a year-on-year basis.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to sue Paxos for issuing and listing its Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin, benefitting its top-rival, Tether (USDT), whose market capitalization has risen to multimonth highs. 

BUSD market cap drops by $2 billion

The SEC claims that BUSD, a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, is a security, noting that Paxos has violated investor protection laws by white-labeling it.

Related: Paxos ‘categorically disagrees’ with the SEC that BUSD is a security

Since Feb. 13, when the news broke, the BUSD market cap has lost roughly $2 billion, down to around $14 billion as of Feb. 16 — the lowest since January 2022. 

As Cointelegraph reported, Binance has seen its withdrawals and BUSD redemptions surge post-Paxos crackdown.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has started ramping up its crackdown on the crypto industry and recent enforcement actions had a negative impact on crypto prices last week and at the start of this week. 

The SEC is focusing on stablecoin issuers. The most recent SEC stablecoin crackdown was on Feb. 13 through the issuance of a Wells notice to Paxos Trust Company, the issuer of Binance USD (BUSD). While Paxos says that BUSD is not a security and thus outside the SEC’s jurisdiction, some lawyers say the answer is not so simple, which creates fear that other top stablecoin issuers like Circle’s USD Coin (USDC) could be next.

The SEC is also putting crosshairs on centralized exchanges (CEX) by questioning how they can use customer funds as qualified custodians. On Feb. 15, a five-member SEC panel will vote on whether to make it more difficult for crypto firms to hold digital assets.

Centralized staking platforms have also come under the SEC’s microscope and because staking programs provide investors with yield, the SEC believes these offerings are securities. On Feb. 9 the SEC began its assault on these programs by reaching a $30 million settlement over Kraken’s earn program.

Interestingly, traders have not adopted a fully risk-off position to the recent SEC activity, and certain decentralized solutions like GMX (GMX), Lido (LDO) and Maker (MKR) are soaring.

Matter Labs, the firm managing Polygon, announced that the beta version of its zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine (zkEVM) would launch on March 27, 2023. It’s possible that Polygon will enjoy a first-mover advantage in this space by launching a public mainnet before zkSync and Scroll.

Zk-based roll-up technology is accepted as the gold standard for scaling. The existing optimistic-based rollups like Arbitrum and Optimism have EVM capability but are less secure because they are “fraud-proof.” Malicious transactions on an Optimistic Rollup can stay valid for up to seven days or more before being reversed. Thus, giving an advantage to zk-technology.

Moreover, the Ethereum community’s focus on Liquid Staking Derivatives may shift toward layer-2 networks after the anticipated Shanghai upgrade in March. This is because the update following Shanghai, Ethereum Improvement Proposal 4844, will reduce the cost of L2 rollups by 10–100-fold. A working zk-based rollup solution will likely attract new projects to its ecosystem.

Polygon (MATIC) has built a strong bullish narrative in the market with the upcoming zkEVM launch. The team’s efforts in the Web3 space are promising and show signs of increasing activity. The growth in its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem has stalled, which could likely stay this way for more extended periods.

Technically, the market structure for Polygon looks bullish. However, the recent 78% increase in MATIC’s price since the start of 2023 could see a correction as speculative buying cools down. Such a situation could possibly provide an ideal entry in MATIC for a swing trade.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit its highest in almost a week on Feb. 15 as “extremely positive” economic data boosted risk asset sentiment.

BTC’s price aims for $23,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining 2.2% on the day to eye a reclaim of $23,000.

Analysts were already predicting volatility, with the latest economic numbers from the United States delivering a pleasant surprise.

Retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index both surpassed market expectations, showing a more resilient economy despite restrictive policy at the Federal Reserve.

“Extremely positive numbers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales both smash expectations, while also Manufacturing Index more positive than expected,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted.

On Feb. 13, BNB (BNB) recorded its worst daily performance since November 2022, falling 8.5% to below $285. BNB’s price has since recovered to over $298, but its possibility of facing another sell-off remains high. Let’s take a look at a few reasons why. 

BNB price rising wedge breakdown

The ongoing decline in BNB’s price came as a part of a broader rising wedge breakdown.

Notably, on Feb. 9, BNB broke out of its rising wedge pattern, a bearish reversal setup that forms as the price trends upward inside a range defined by two ascending, converging trendlines.

As a rule of technical analysis, a rising wedge’s profit target is measured after subtracting the maximum distance between the pattern’s upper and lower trendline from the breakdown point.

Therefore, BNB’s rising wedge target comes to be near $250, down about 15% from current prices. Interestingly, the $250 level also served as support in May, September and November 2022.

Bitcoin (BTC) is headed to either $28,000 or $19,000 and this week could decide all, fresh analysis says.

In Twitter comments on Feb. 15, popular trader, Skew, told followers that BTC/USD is now in a “pivotal area.”

“Next big move” due for Bitcoin

Despite returning above $22,000 on the back of the Feb. 14 United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, Bitcoin has yet to resume the blistering rally, which saw it gain 40% in January.

After two weeks of consolidation, however, the time to make a decision is here, Skew believes.

“I think we’re setting up for the next big move,” he summarized alongside a chart showing relevant BTC price targets.

The price of Ether (ETH) declined 10.2% between Jan. 8 and Jan. 10, and has since been range trading near the $1,500 level. More importantly, on a broader time frame, Ether is down 52.5% in twelve months, which partially explains why derivatives metrics were somewhat neutral after Ether’s failed attempt to break $1,700 on Feb. 8.

Currently, investors' biggest concerns are the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) lawsuits and enforcement actions against crypto firms, which included Kraken’s tanking of its-as-a-service program and PayPal reportedly pausing its stablecoin project due to regulatory concerns.

A crackdown by the SEC on crypto staking is expected to have unintended consequences for decentralized finance (DeFi), according to Jacob Blish, the head of business development at Lido DAO. Blish joined a growing number of people in the crypto industry calling for transparency in crypto sector regulation.

On the bright side, Ethereum developers announced the pre-launch of the Shanghai upgrade on the Zhejiang testnet. According to a blog post on Feb. 10, the transition is required to enable withdrawals from validators' staking positions. The Zhejiang test network is the first of three testnets that simulate Shanghai, which is expected to go live in March 2023, although a specific date has not been released.

Let's look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the $1,700 price rejection has impacted crypto investors' sentiment.

Cumulative nonfungible token (NFT) trading volume trended higher in January, and data from a recent Delphi Digital report showed monthly volumes reaching an eight-month high above $1 billion.

The key factor that influenced NFT trading was the Blur token airdrop on Feb. 14. Since its launch last year in Q3 2022, Blur has rewarded users with “care packages,” which can be redeemed for tokens starting Feb. 14 at 12 pm ET.

Many users have tried to farm these airdrops, increasing the platform’s trading volume. Since the start of 2023, Blur’s trading volume has surpassed that of OpenSea, the market leader in the NFT trading space.

Airdrops often create excitement in the market of thrilled users who receive free money and FOMO from those who missed out. It’s likely that the next step for the Blur team will be to launch new liquidity mining campaigns, similar to Optimism, to retain its volume and users. Moreover, users will also move on to other opportunities in the space, similar to Blur. 

On-chain data shows whales are accumulating NFT tokens 

The top NFT trading platforms on Ethereum with a native token are LooksRare (LOOKS) and X2Y2 (X2Y2). The year-to-date increase in the price of their tokens is 100% and 260%, respectively. The tokens have outperformed the market’s average gain, suggesting buyers are paying more attention to these tokens.

After twenty days of holding the $22,500 support, Bitcoin (BTC) price finally broke down on Feb. 9. Bullish traders had placed their hope on a sustained rally, but this has been replaced by a tight trading range with resistance at $22,000. 

The downtrend is even more concerning since the S&P 500 is trading near its highest level in six months, yet the wider crypto market continues to correct.

Regulatory pressure, mainly in the United States, can explain Bitcoin's recent lackluster performance. For starters, on Jan. 9, Kraken exchange reached an agreement with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to stop offering staking services to U.S. clients. The crypto also firm agreed to pay $30 million in disgorgement, prejudgment interest and civil penalties.

On Feb. 10, cryptocurrency lending firm Nexo Capital announced that its yield-bearing Earn Interest product for U.S. customers would be shut down in April. Nexo pointed to its $45 million settlement with the SEC and other regulators on Jan. 19 as the reason for the service halting.

U.S. SEC Chair Gary Gensler issued a warning to crypto companies on Jan. 10 to "come in and follow the law," explaining that their business models were "rife with conflict" and claimed they needed to "disentangle" bundled products. Gensler said that such companies are required to register with the SEC.

Bitcoin (BTC) ticked above $22,000 after the Feb. 14 Wall Street open as crucial United States inflation data delivered “mixed” results.

BTC price hits 5-day highs on CPI

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it tested multi-week lows twice on hourly timeframes before reversing upward.

The pair saw flash volatility in line with predictions as January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers hit, something repeated at the start of trading on Wall Street.

Still within a tight trading range, however, Bitcoin’s reaction was in fact fairly muted, with up and down moves only involving several hundred dollars at a time.

That reflected the CPI data itself, which broadly conformed to market expectations. A moderate exception was year-on-year, which ran “hot” at 0.2% above the envisaged 6.2%.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw ongoing rejection below $22,000 into Feb. 14 as markets braced for macroeconomic data impact.

Bitcoin vs. CPI: “Expect volatility”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD failing to expand beyond $21,800 ahead of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for January.

Already called the “most important” CPI release, the data, due at 8:30 am Eastern Time, is a classic volatility catalyst for risk assets.

Crypto market participants thus expected a busy trading day, with both $19,000 and $25,000 on the table as potential targets depending on how far the results stay from estimates.

“Will probably see that $24-25k Bitcoin pump if tomorrow morning’s CPI number shows more disinflation in the positive direction,” Venturefounder, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in part of a Twitter update.

In January, ApeCoin (APE) had an underwhelming performance compared to metaverse-based tokens like Decentraland (MANA) and The Sandbox (SAND). APE gained 61% compared to the 90% and 150% respective gains seen in SAND and MANA. The subdued gains can be attributed to the hefty APE staking reward that is likely creating some selling pressure.

An upcoming unlock of around 9% of APE’s circulating supply in March, along with not-so-impressive fundamentals, will add further headwinds for the token. The gains in APE will depend on the success of the blockchain gaming projects in the ApeCoin ecosystem and new partnerships between Yuga Labs and big brands.

Traders take advantage of oversized APE staking rewards

ApeCoin DAO launched its APE staking mechanism in December. The APE staking pool yielded 90% annual returns in the first two months. Holders of the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) NFTs and related collections are eligible for twice the yields of around 171%, adding significant selling pressure for the token.

However, these traders are primarily interested in capturing risk-free APE gains instead of accumulating the token. They thus may eventually become a source of constant selling pressure.

The token has been heavily shorted in the futures market, especially after the launch of the staking mechanism. The funding rate for APE/USD perpetual contracts has been negative since December.