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Bitcoin (BTC) saw a dramatic change of mood into June 22 as multi-day highs gave way to a fresh dive under $20,000.

BTC could see accumulation below key trendline

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD abruptly halting its latest gains to hit lows of $19,947 on Bitstamp.

The largest cryptocurrency had passed $21,700 the day before, its best performance since June 16, but momentum waned during Wall Street trading.

For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, there was danger in BTC/USD being unable to reclaim its 200-week moving average (MA).

As a classic support line in previous bear markets, Bitcoin had formerly retained the 200-week MA as support with wicks below it characterizing macro price bottoms.

Avalanche (AVAX) is down 45% in 30 days and in the same time the cryptocurrencies total market capitalization shrank by 29%.

Despite the recent downturn, this decentralized application (DApp) platform remains a top contender in the layer-1 and layer-2 race and it ranks high in terms of smart contract deposits and active addresses. Yet, the lackluster token price is still causing investors to rethink whether the network remains a “serious” competitor.

The brutal sell-off on risk assets caused AVAX to test the $14.80 support multiple times, while the current market capitalization stands at $4.8 billion. It’s important also to note that the network’s total value locked (TVL) holds an impressive $3.2 billion.

As a comparison, Solana (SOL) offers incredibly low network fees and holds a $2.1 billion TVL. Yet, SOL token’s market cap stands at $12.9 billion, which is almost three times larger than Avalanche’s valuation at the $14.80 price level.

The TVL indicator is extremely relevant because it measures the deposits on the network’s smart contracts. If we use Polygon (MATIC), an Ethereum layer-2 solution, as a proxy, the network holds a $1.8 billion TVL while the token's market capitalization stands at $3.5 billion.

There is good reason to be afraid. Previous down markets have seen declines in excess of 80%. While tightfisted hodling might hold wisdom among many Bitcoin (BTC) maximalists, speculators in altcoins know that diamond handing can mean near (or total) annihilation. 

Regardless of one’s investment philosophy, in risk-off environments, participation flees the space with haste. The purest among us might see a silver lining as the devastation clears the forest floor of weeds, leaving room for the strongest projects to flourish. Though, doubtlessly, there are many saplings lost who would grow to great heights themselves if they had a chance.

Investment and interest in the digital asset space are water and sunlight to the fertile ground of ideas and entrepreneurship. Less severe declines better serve the market; better a garden than a desert.

A brief history of crypto bear markets

In order to solve a problem, we must first understand its catalyst. Bitcoin and the wider digital asset space have survived a number of bear markets since its inception. By some accounts, depending on one’s definition, we are currently in number five.

The first half of 2012 was fraught with regulatory uncertainty culminating in the closure of TradeHill, the second-largest Bitcoin exchange. This was followed by the hacks of both Bitcoinica and Linode, resulting in tens of thousands of Bitcoin lost and dropping the market by some 40%.¹ But, the price rebounded, albeit briefly, finding new heights above $16 until further hacks, regulatory fears and defaults from the Bitcoin Savings and Trust Ponzi Scheme collapsed the price yet again, down 37%.¹

Bitcoin (BTC) saw continued strength on June 21 as Wall Street trading opened with a trip to near $21,500.

Analyst eyes diminishing BTC stocks correlation

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it reached $21,633 on Bitstamp, its best performance since June 16.

The largest cryptocurrency managed to avoid fresh losses into the new week; so far, these are reserved for the weekend. As such, futures markets reopened without being subjected to the dip to $17,600.

While some planned to short BTC at current levels, the mood among market participants was broadly one of "wait and see" as U.S. equities opened up. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both added around 2.5% on the open. 

Popular trader Bierre was eyeing the 200-period moving average (MA) on the four-hour chart. For him, breaking it on the day would be a sign of strength not seen for multiple weeks.

Crypto traders had a brief opportunity to pause and take stock of where things are on June 16 as the relentless selling that has hammered Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider market over the past week began to relent despite an ongoing sell-off in the traditional markets. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after climbing to a high of $23,000 in the early trading hours on June 16, the price of Bitcoin slowly trended down on diminished trading volume to hit a low at $20,765.

Here’s what several analysts in the market are saying about the outlook for Bitcoin moving forward as crypto traders try to determine if the bottom is in or if there is more downside ahead.

Expect multi-month consolidation at the 200-week MA

A macro perspective of the journey that Bitcoin has taken over the years and how its past can offer insight into the current market setup was discussed by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart highlighting BTC’s behavior near its 200-week moving average (MA).

Rekt Capital said,

In the summer of 2021, the Chinese government banned Bitcoin (BTC) mining and cited the typical concerns of harmful environmental effects and money laundering. Now, the Chinese government is working toward establishing its own digital yuan currency. This raises the question as to whether the original reasoning was merely a Trojan horse.

This ban could easily have been a huge blow to Bitcoin’s momentum. After all, close to 75% of all Bitcoin mining had been conducted in China by late 2019, according to Cambridge Alternative Finance Benchmarks. If the network teetered under the weight of China’s nationwide ban, other governments might have begun to think that Bitcoin could be defeated after all.

China’s ban was Bitcoin’s stress test

For a brief period, the ban worked as intended — by the end of June 2021, the Bitcoin network’s hash rate had dropped to 57.47 exahashes per second (EH/s), down by a few multiples. However, the hash rate rebounded to 193.64 EH/s by December 2021 and by February 2022, it reached an all-time high of 248.11 EH/s.

The entire ordeal was a test that Bitcoin passed with flying colors: Banning Bitcoin mining proved as effective as the Prohibition era was at killing drinking culture in the United States.

In early 2022, the obvious explanation for the hash rate recovery was that miners who had set up shop in China had simply fled to the Western Hemisphere. There was plenty of evidence that seemed to support this hypothesis — primarily that the United States’ share of the global hash rate exploded from 4.1% in late 2019 to 35.4% in August 2021.

The outlook across the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to dim as the sharp downtrend that was initially sparked by the collapse of Terra (LUNA, now LUNC) appears to have claimed the Singapore-based crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) as its next victim. 

As large crypto projects and investment firms begin to collapse on a weekly basis, the prospect of a long, drawn out bear market is a reality investors are beginning to accept. 

Based on a recent Twitter poll conducted by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Plan C,  41.6% of respondents indicated that they thought the Bitcoin (BTC) bottom will fall between the $17,000 to $20,000 range.

Addresses holding at least 1 BTC hits a new high

In the midst of the heightened volatility and rapid price decline for Bitcoin, many would expect to see traders dumping their holdings and fleeing to the sidelines in a bid to maintain their purchasing power.

While it has indeed been the case that falling prices and liquidations have pushed many traders out of the market, low-priced Bitcoin has also attracted some buyers who have patiently been waiting for the right entry point.

Solana (SOL) tumbled on June 16 amid a broader retreat across the top cryptocurrencies, led by the Federal Reserve's 0.75% interest rate hike a day before.

Solana price rebound fizzles

Notably, SOL/USD plunged nearly 17% to $30 a token, wiping out almost all the gains from the day before. The SOL price volatility liquidated almost $10 million worth of contracts in the past 24 hours across multiple crypto exchanges, data from Coinglass shows. 

The latest declines come as an extension to SOL's broader correction, where it dropped by more than 90% after peaking out near $267 in November 2021. SOL also fell to its lowest level since July 2021 near $25.

In addition, a higher interest rate environment and the collapse of high-profile crypto projects like Terra have strengthened SOL's downside prospects. 

SOL paints "ascending triangle"

Solana's pullback move on June 16 began after testing a horizontal trendline resistance near $34 that constitutes what appears to be an "ascending triangle" pattern.

Bitcoin (BTC) ran out of steam near $23,000 on June 16 after the biggest United States key rate hike in nearly thirty years.

Dollar strength wobbles after rate hike news

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching highs of $22,957 on Bitstamp after the Federal Reserve confirmed a 0.75% hike in June — its largest since 1994.

Momentum did not last long, however, and at the time of writing, the pair had shed $2,000 to return to $21,000 at the new Wall Street open.

Popular trader Crypto Tony eyed the U.S. dollar on the back of the Fed's decision, with an about-turn in USD strength key to a possible Bitcoin bottom.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), after spiking to twenty-year highs again after the announcement, began retracing through June 16.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) slumped on June 16, suggesting that its relief rally, coinciding with the Federal Reserve announcing it will hike the benchmark rate by 0.75%, is at risk.

Ether bulls trapped?

Ether's price slipped by 9.2% to around $1,120 per token a day after it rebounded by 23% after dropping to almost $1,000, its worst level since January 2021.

The ETH/USD pair's upside move, followed by a sharp correction, appeared in tandem with U.S. stocks, confirming that it traded like a risk-asset.

The decline means that Ether has shed 77% of its value since November 2021 and is now trading below its "realized price" of $1,740, data from Glassnode shows.

In addition, a higher interest rate environment adds more selling pressure, with investors leaving high-risk trades and seeking safety in traditional hedging assets, such as cash. 

Bitcoin (BTC) near $20,000 is worrying the market, but after narrowly avoiding breaking support, is the worst really over?

According to multiple on-chain indicators, it seems that max pain has yet to arrive this cycle.

The stakes are high for many hodlers this week — almost 50% of the supply is being held at a loss and miners are upping their shipments of BTC to exchanges.

Even some of Bitcoin’s biggest investors, notably MicroStrategy, are having to defend their conviction on BTC as price action tumbles.

With targets ranging as low as $11,000, Cointelegraph takes a look at how much further the market technically needs to drop to match historical bottom zones.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to restore the $24,000 support since Celsius, a popular staking and lending platform, paused withdrawals from its platform on June 13. A growing number of users believe Celsius mismanaged its funds following the collapse of the Anchor Protocol on the Terra (LUNA; now LUNC) ecosystem and rumors of its insolvency continue to circulate.

An even larger issue emerged on June 14 after crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) reportedly lost $31.4 million through trading on Bitfinex. Furthermore, 3AC was a known investor in Terra, which experienced a 100% crash in late May.

Unconfirmed reports that 3AC faced liquidations totaling hundreds of millions from multiple positions agitated the market in the early hours of June 15, causing Bitcoin to trade at $20,060, its lowest level since Dec. 15, 2020.

Let’s take a look at current derivatives metrics to understand whether June 15’s bearish trend reflects top traders' sentiment.

Margin markets deleveraged after a brief spike in longs

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency and leverage their trading position to potentially increase returns. For example, one can buy cryptocurrencies by borrowing Tether (USDT) to enlarge exposure.

Bitcoin (BTC) spared hodlers the pain of losing $20,000 on June 15 after BTC/USD came dangerously close to last cycle's high.

Bitcoin "bottom" fools nobody

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD surging higher after reaching $20,079 on Bitstamp.

In a pause from its sell-off, the pair followed United States equities higher on the Wall Street open, hitting $21,700. The S&P 500 gained 1.4% after the opening bell, while the Nasdaq Composite Index managed 1.6%.

The renewed market strength, commentators said, was thanks to the majority already pricing in outsized key rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, due to be confirmed on the day.

Nonetheless, it was crypto taking the worst hit in the inflationary environment, Bloomberg chief commodity strategist Mike McGlone noted. In a tweet, he contrasted Bitcoin and altcoin performance with skyrocketing commodities, notably WTI crude oil, futures of which now traded at almost double their 200-week moving average.

The price of Nexo (NEXO) continued to fall on June 15 as crypto lending firms continue to be shaken by the falling cryptocurrency market.

Meanwhile, Nexo has denied rumors of exposure to Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a Dubai-based crypto fund facing insolvency risks.

NEXO price suffers on DeFi contagion fears 

NEXO, which serves as a security token at a cryptocurrency lending platform of the same name, fell nearly 25% to $0.61 a unit, its lowest price reading since January 2021.

The massive intraday decline came as a part of a broader downside move this week, which stretched NEXO's losses to 40%.

An ongoing contagion in the crypto lending sector contributed to NEXO's underperformance.

Bitcoin (BTC) could be on the verge of a retail major sell-off as exchange inflows spike to almost three-and-a-half-year highs.

Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows users of 21 major exchanges sending coins to their wallets en masse on June 14.

Major exchanges finish up 83,000 BTC in a single day

As BTC/USD fell to lows of $20,800, panic appeared to set in among traders, and despite a reversal that at one point topped $23,000, few seemed willing to trust that the worst was over.

Since then, spot price action has returned to near $21,000, while 24-hour exchange inflows reached 59,376 BTC.

According to CryptoQuant data, this is the largest daily inflow since November 30, 2018. On that day, exchanges recorded 83,481 BTC of net inflows.

Ether (ETH) price nosedived below $1,100 in the early hours of June 14 to prices not seen since January 2021. The downside move marks a 78% correction since the $4,870 all-time high on Nov. 10, 2021.

More importantly, Ether has underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) by 33% between May 10 and June 14, 2022, and the last time a similar event happened was mid-2021.

Even though Bitcoin oscillated in a narrow range two weeks before the 0.082 ETH/BTC peak, this period marked the “DeFi Summer” peak when the Ethereum network’s total value locked (TVL) catapulted to $93 billion from $42 billion two months earlier.

What’s behind Ether’s 2021 underperformance?

Before jumping to conclusions, a broader set of data is needed to understand what led to the 31% correction in the ETH/BTC price in 2021. Looking at the number of active addresses is a good place to start.

Data shows steady growth in active addresses, which increased from 595,620 in mid-March to 857,520 in mid-May. So, not only did the TVL growth take investors by surprise, but so did the number of users.

On June 14, discussions of Celsius continued to populate media headlines and June 14's news involved the platform's CEL token accruing massive gains after what appears to have been either an exchange glitch or a short-squeeze. CEL price spiked from $0.18  to $1.55 in one abrupt candle before sinking back to $0.60 within the same one-hour candle.

Currently, analysts are on the fence about the reason for the explosive price breakout. Some cite Celsius repaying a portion of its debts as a reason, while others pinpoint a possible error on the FTX exchange as the reason for what appears to be a short squeeze.

Are debt repayments boosting investor confidence?

Celsius has been scrambling to cover a number of its debts and it is possible that some investors view this as a sign that the platform will be able to survive the current mayhem. 

Twitter analyst Hsaka said that on-chain data shows that the $28 million in Dai (DAI) that was recently deposited into a wallet controlled by Celsius and has since been sent to a separate address, which he identified as a debt repayment address.

Analysts believe that the Celsius's strategy is to lower its liquidation price in the MakerDAO vaults  where it holds funds and ultimately avoid insolvency.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) is showing signs of bottoming out as ETH price bounced off a key support zone. Notably, ETH price is now holding above the key support level of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $1,196. 

The 200-week SMA support seems purely psychological, partly due to its ability to serve as bottom levels in the previous Bitcoin bear markets.

Independent market analyst "Bluntz" argues that the curvy level would also serve as a strong price floor for Ether where accumulation is likely. 

He notes:

"BTC has bottomed 4x at the 200wma dating back to 2014. [Probably] safe to assume it's a pretty strong level. Sure we can wick below it, but there [are] also six days left in the week."

Bitcoin (BTC) crept higher after the June 14 Wall Street open as analysts hoped that long-term support had been preserved.

Hopes for "relief" from FOMC meeting

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it traded above $22,500 at the time of writing, having hit local highs of $23,300 on the day.

The pair had seen a strong bounce after nearing $20,800, with traditional markets likewise recovering after panic set in over United States inflation.

Eyeing where Bitcoin could go next, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators noted that the market had reclaimed the 200-day simple moving average (200 SMA), an important feature of Bitcoin bear markets that acted as support throughout previous price cycles.

Nonetheless, it was "too early to tell" if the 200 SMA would continue to provide an attractive zone, a tweet stated, with the Federal Reserve due to provide inflation cues on June 15.