Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) stares at potential losses heading into the third-quarter of 2023 after U.S. lawmakers will likely reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling.

A $1 trillion liquidity hole ahead

Raising the debt ceiling means the U.S. Treasury could issue new bonds to raise cash to meet its previous obligations.

As a result, the cash pile at the Treasury General Account could increase from $95 billion in May to $550 billion by June and to $600 billion in the three months afterward, according to the department's recent estimates.

Ari Bergmann, the founder of risk management firm Penso Advisors, estimates that the Treasury will cross $1 trillion by the end of Q3, 2023. 

“My bigger concern is that when the debt-limit gets resolved — and I think it will — you are going to have a very, very deep and sudden drain of liquidity,” said Bergmann, adding:

Bitcoin (BTC) traded back below $27,000 on May 19 as analysis flagged large-volume trades pressuring price.

Inflation specter haunts crypto markets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting lows of $26,380 on Bitstamp.

A modest recovery then took the pair to a range familiar from several days prior, this still in focus prior to the week’s final Wall Street open.

Downside overnight came courtesy of increasing market expectations of an interest rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve in June.

These came thanks to low jobless claims data for the week, with Fed officials adding a hawkish tone.

Bitcoin has been trying to break above the $27,500 resistance for the past week but to no avail. One of the reasons limiting Bitcoin’s (BTC) upside is the risk of an eventual United States default as the government struggles to get the debt limit increase approved in Congress. 

Still, some analysts and investors argue that the U.S. debt ceiling standoff is merely a “show” because, ultimately, additional money will hit the markets.

Notice how MacroJack correlates Bitcoin’s digital scarcity to the next logical step: additional inflationary pressure. The stimulus measures, meaning increasing the government debt limit, might initially sound positive because they avoid default and favor more economic activity. However, the unintended consequences are future budget constraints as the debt interest payment increases.

Bitcoin price increases while gold breaks a 45-day low

Bitcoin’s gains above $27,000 happened while gold traded down 2.5% from May 15 to May 18, reaching its lowest level in 45 days at $1,970. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a basket of foreign exchanges, reached its highest level in two months on May 18, meaning the U.S. currency gained strength relative to its global peers.

This data should not be interpreted as a vote of confidence in the government’s ability to avoid a shutdown, as the global economy would be negatively impacted in the event of a U.S. debt default. For instance, eurozone members hold $1.54 trillion in U.S. Treasurys, followed by Japan’s $1.1 trillion, China’s $860 billion and the United Kingdom’s $668 billion.

Bitcoin (BTC) has crossed a significant threshold this month — and while it does not involve price, it does involve “millions.”

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that as of May 18, there are over 1 million addresses that hold at least 1 BTC.

Back: Adoption trend lays path to “hyperbitcoinization”

It was a long time coming and received much attention on social media, and the time is finally here — there are 1 million entities that own a whole Bitcoin.

These “wholecoiners” have been steadily accruing since mid-2021, Glassnode shows, and the upward trend in 1-BTC wallets has seen almost no reversal since.

In 2022, however, the trend accelerated, having started the year with 814,000 wholesalers and finishing it with 978,000 — an increase of 20%.

Bitcoin (BTC) held a snap rebound on May 18 as analysts hoped that further upside would come next.

BTC price sustains knee-jerk move higher

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it circled $27,400 on Bitstamp.

The pair had made swift gains toward the prior day’s Wall Street open, these topping out at 3.5% versus the day’s lows.

Amid changing signals on exchange order books, popular trader Skew was hopeful for continuation.

“Price swept the pre-emptive swing low, which was enough liquidity to push up higher,” he summarized in part of a Twitter analysis.

Bitcoin (BTC) price lost steam after a failed rupture of the $27,500 resistance on May 15, putting bears in a better position for the May 19 expiry. The regulatory newsflow likely played a key role in trimming investors’ risk appetite as governments seek more control over the sector.

In a memo circulated among committee members, Democrats in the United States legislature sought to cement the SEC’s authority over crypto. The document was made public on May 10, including the argument that nearly all digital assets constitute securities. Moreover, according to Gensler’s view, even network nodes are in violation of securities laws.

The United Kingdom’s Treasury Committee “strongly recommended” on May 17 regulating retail crypto trading and investment activity as gambling, consistent with the principle of “same risk, same regulatory outcome.” Treasury Committee Chair Harriett Baldwin described Bitcoin and Ether as accounting for two-thirds of the total market capitalization of crypto assets, both of which she claimed are “unbacked.”

The $735 million Bitcoin weekly options expiry on May 19 might play a decisive role in determining whether the price will capitulate by falling below $26,000.

Bitcoin could be making a short-term bottom

Bitcoin bears will try to take advantage of the negative regulatory environment, and uncertainty caused by the risk of the U.S. Treasury ‘running out of funds’ as the debt ceiling approaches. Such a pessimistic scenario partially explains why some Bitcoin traders decided to reduce exposure over the past couple of weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a new “speculation cycle” typical of a bull run, new analysis says.

In a tweet on May 16, Philip Swift, creator of data resource LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, revealed history repeating itself according to the RHODL Ratio metric.

RHODL Ratiocreator on BTC price: "Zoom out"

RHODL Ratio is a method of tracking BTC price behavior based on the realized price of the supply — the price at which coins last moved.

Created by Swift in 2020, it compares the relative ages of coins which moved one week ago to those which moved 1-2 years ago.

This ratio gives an insight into the relative activity of short-term (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs), and by extension the extent to which speculation is present on the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) looked poised to give up $27,000 as support on May 17, with traders waiting for new lows.

Whales meet low liquidity

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading near $26,800 at the time of writing.

The pair had staged multiple crosses of the $27,000 mark the day before, with that level forming a low-timeframe focus now at risk of breaking down.

“3 wave up into resistance, followed by a retest and a rejection off resistance zone,” popular trader Crypto Tony summarized about recent activity.

He added that a potential target to wait for was now $26,400.

Since May 12, Ether’s price has been struggling to sustain its $1,800 support level, as investors face pressures from a worsening crypto regulatory environment and the Ethereum network’s high gas fees. Also negatively impacting Ether’s (ETH) price are three indicators signaling reduced demand for its decentralized applications (DApps) and a lack of leverage buying demand from professional traders.

Regulators signal their plan to further limit crypto intermediaries

According to court documents filed on May 15, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given a formal response in court in relation to Coinbase’s petition for clear crypto regulation. The SEC stated that any rulemaking may take years and that enforcement actions will continue in the meantime.

On May 16, the Economic and Financial Affairs Council of the European Union — comprising finance ministers of all member states — approved the highly anticipated Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which will come into effect by mid-2024.

Some argue that MiCA facilitates business growth in the region. Others focus on the privacy risks for personal users’ data and the risks imposed on non-custodial solutions, including decentralized finance applications.

The drop in DApp deposits is concerning

The price of Lido DAO (LDO) has rebounded to its three-week high of $2.21 as of May 16, up 40% when measured from its local low of $1.57, established four days ago.

This impressive double-digit recovery appeared in tandem with other top-ranking crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). However, LDO has greatly outperformed the broader crypto market (TOTAL), which is up only 4.5% since May 12.

But what are the reasons why Lido DAO is outperforming the rest of the cryptocurrency market right now? Let’s take a closer look at the three biggest factors likely driving up LDO’s price.

Ether depositors’ return after Shapella

The LDO price recovery coincides with the net positive inflows into Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) contract in recent days.

Lido DAO is primarily an Ethereum liquid staking platform. It enables users to pool their funds to become validators on Ethereum, thus bypassing the network’s requirement of depositing at least 32 ETH.

Bitcoin (BTC) surfed $27,000 on May 16 as traders stayed buoyant about upside continuation.

$24,000 BTC price still in play, says trader

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD still focusing on the $27,000 mark, having dipped to $26,870 after the daily close.

Still lacking direction, traders hoped the pair would either attempt to exit its narrow range or touch more significant levels up or down.

For popular trader Crypto Ed, potential targets included the “gap” in CME futures created at the weekend.

“It’s really on the lower timeframe where the action is now; higher timeframe is not really exciting,” he summarized in his latest YouTube update on the day.

Bitcoin’s price broke below its 55-day resistance at $27,000 on May 12, down 12.3% in 30 days. But more importantly, it decoupled from the S&P 500 Index, which is basically flat from 30 days ago and 15% below its all-time high.

As the chart indicates, for some reason, Bitcoin (BTC) investors believe that the favorable macroeconomic trends for risk markets were overshadowed by the increasing risk perception of the cryptocurrency sector.

Financial crisis could fuel Bitcoin’s price increase

For starters, there’s the impending United States government debt ceiling crisis, which, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, could cause an “economic and financial catastrophe." The increased risk of default should, in theory, be beneficial for scarce assets, as investors seek shelter from a weaker U.S. dollar.

The $5.6 trillion commercial real estate market in the U.S. is subject to additional risks due to high interest rates and troubled regional banks. Guggenheim Partners chief investment officer Anne Walsh stated, “We’re likely going into a real estate recession, but not across the entire real estate market."

There is also positive news on the cryptocurrency regulatory front, as the industry gathers additional support against the regulatory efforts of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The U.S. Chamber of Commerce filed an amicus brief on May 9, defending the Coinbase exchange and accusing the SEC of deliberately creating a precarious and uncertain landscape.

Bitcoin saw five-day highs on May 15 as a rebound continued after the Wall Street open.

$40,000 “still a magnet” for BTC price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $27,666 on Bitstamp.

Bitcoin (BTC) on Bitstamp held strength on hourly timeframes after a weekly close just below the $27,000 mark.

With United States equities in a tight range on the day, crypto analysts looked for cues over where markets might go next.

For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, the outlook was good.

Bitcoin (BTC) is fighting for the bull trend as the new week begins with the market acting within a crucial zone.

After closing the weekly candle at just below $27,000, BTC/USD is attempting to cement support as a stubborn trading zone holds.

The stakes are already high, with last week seeing a flash dip below $26,000 and two-month lows for Bitcoin, making traders fearful of a larger bearish breakdown to come.

While this has not materialized, nerves remain on both shorter and longer timeframes.

Where is price action likely headed next? A relatively calm week of macro triggers means less chance of volatility from external sources.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to recover $27,000 into the May 14 weekly close as volatility picked up out of hours.

BTC price gains over 7% in two days

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to $27,200 on Bitstamp.

Its highest in several days, the performance reflected gains of around 7.5% versus local lows from the week’s final Wall Street trading session.

“Strong movements on Bitcoin as it swept all the lows in recent moves and grinds back up to $27.2K,” an optimistic Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted.

“Patience, as flipping $27.2K is the first serious trigger for continuation upwards. In that case, close to a temporary bottom & potentially new highs to $36-42K still possible.”