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The share of Ethereum (ETH) held by so-called whale addresses has dropped since Ethereum's Shapella upgrade in mid April, suggesting that large investors may be leaning bearish in t near term.

ETH whale population shrinks post-Shapella

The amount of Ether held by addresses with 1,000-10,000 ETH, or "whales," was over 14.033 million ETH on May 1, according to Glassnode data. In comparison, the count was 14.167 million ETH on April 12, when Shapella went live on Ethereum.

Interestingly, a week before the Shapella upgrade, the Ethereum whale cohort held 14.303 million ETH, the highest amount in 2023

"Shrimps" only ones buying ETH since Shapella

Ether's price is down over 3.5% since the Shapella upgrade— suggesting that several whales may have indeed "sold the news."

Interestingly, other address cohorts also showed a decline, including sharks (100-1,000 ETH), fishes (10-100 ETH), crabs (1-10 ETH), and even mega-whales (10,000+ ETH).

Bitcoin (BTC) has room to drop below $25,000 to flush out a recent influx of speculators, research shows.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode flagged the ongoing influence of “short-term holders” (STHs) on BTC price action.

Profitability reset point lies below $25,000

BTC/USD has struggled to overcome $30,000 resistance in recent weeks, and multiple fakeouts have frustrated Bitcoin bulls.

In its latest investigation into on-chain activity, Glassnode revealed that market newcomers may be responsible — speculative behavior, including profit-taking, has become prevalent in 2023.

Among the metrics contributing evidence is market value to realized value (MVRV), which tracks spot price and the on-chain cost basis of specific investor segments. STH-MVRV reflects the relationship as it impacts STHs, defined as those hodling Bitcoin for 155 days or less.

Ether’s (ETH) price has shown weakness after failing to break above the $1,950 resistance on April 26. The subsequent correction drove ETH to $1,810 on May 1, nearing its lowest level in four weeks. Curiously, the movement happened while First Republic Bank (FRB) was seized by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with JPMorgan to protect FRB depositors, estimating a $13 billion loss.

Commented on the latest major U.S. bank failure, UBS analyst Erika Najarian stated:

“This deal does not change the rates, recession and regulatory headwinds that regional banks are facing.“

ETH price ignores banking crisis

Curiously, the VIX indicator, which measures how traders are pricing the risks of extreme price oscillations for the S&P 500 index, reached its lowest level in 18 months at 15.6% on May 1.

Bitcoin (BTC) fought for $28,000 support on May 2 after the month opened to multiday lows.

BTC price: “Big volatility on the horizon”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it returned to the $28,000 mark on Bitstamp.

The previous day’s Wall Street open had brought the latest wave of downside volatility, with the pair dipping below $27,700.

This followed a leg lower immediately after the weekly and monthly close, with $30,000 and upward feeling increasingly out of reach.

Market participants’ BTC price targets reflected the mood. Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, argued that a rematch with both $25,000 and $30,000 was still on the table.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $28,000 support after the May 1 Wall Street open as markets digested fresh United States banking jitters.

Suspicions mount over First Republic contagion

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to multi-day lows at the time of writing.

The pair continued a comedown that began after the weekly and monthly candle close, shedding over $1,000 since that time.

The start of the week saw a potential volatility catalyst during Asia trading as First Republic Bank was sold to JPMorgan Chase by the U.S. government.

Amid suspicions over the legitimacy of the move, First Republic became the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw considerable volatility between April 25 and May 1, ranging between $27,200 and $30,000. From a trading perspective, the 10.5% move sounds alarming, resulting in $340 million in leveraged BTC futures contract liquidations.

However, from a broader angle, Bitcoin price is up 72% year-to-date in 2023, while the S&P 500 stock market index accumulated 9% gains.

BTC price climbs on weaker US dollar, banking crisis

Bitcoin’s bull run happened while the dollar strength index (DYX), which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of foreign exchanges, was nearing its lowest level in 12 months.

The indicator stands at 102, down from 105.3 eight weeks prior, as investors priced in higher odds of further interventions from the U.S. Treasury to contain the banking crisis.

On May 1, the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation closed down First Republic Bank (FRB) and transferred control to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC then entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with JPMorgan to protect depositors. FRB joined Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to become the latest U.S. bank to collapse in 2023.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week digesting major macroeconomic news as the United States sees the second-largest bank failure in its history.

After a sideways weekend, BTC/USD was already volatile into the new weekly and monthly candle as the downside kicked in.

After steadying below $29,000, BTC price action is already facing more potential pressure, with First Republic Bank being placed in public receivership and taken over by JPMorgan Chase.

The move, announced during Asia trading but before the Wall Street open, precedes an already heavy week in which the Federal Reserve will reveal its next interest rate shift.

With much to take in, the potential for continued surprises in crypto markets is clearly evident.

Risky assets marginally extend their up-move in April. The S&P 500 Index rose around 1.5% in April while Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to end the month with gains of more than 4%. Could the rally continue in May or is it time for a pullback?

The recovery could face headwinds if the United States banking woes escalate further. JPMorgan Asset Management chief investment officer Bob Michele said in an interview with Bloomberg that the turmoil at First Republic Bank is unlikely to be limited to the bank only, and could cause a domino effect.

If that happens, then the U.S. equity markets may witness a correction. However, it is difficult to predict how Bitcoin will react to such a crisis because, in the past few days, BTC price rose while legacy banking troubles deepened. But in case of a major upheaval in the U.S. banking sector, it is possible that Bitcoin will also face a correction sooner or later.

In the near term, Bitcoin and select altcoins are showing strength. Let’s study the charts of five cryptocurrencies that may outperform over the next few days.

Bitcoin price analysis

After two days of low volatile trading in Bitcoin, the bulls are trying to assert their supremacy on April 30.

It now costs Bitcoin (BTC) miners at least $17,000 to produce one BTC in the U.S. versus the $5,000-10,000 range a year ago, according to Bitcoin mining data resource Hashrate Index and Luxor.

Bitcoin hashprice has dropped 58% in a year

Unsurprisingly, soaring electricity rates across the U.S. states have contributed to rising Bitcoin mining costs.

Notably, between January 2022 and January 2023, the commercial electricity tariff surged at an average of 10.71% per U.S. state, higher than the average consumer price index surge of 6.4%.

Coupled with Bitcoin's downward performance in 2022, which saw a maximum drawdown from around $48,000 to below $15,000, it is evident that active miners generated consistent losses due to the increase in operational costs and lower returns.

But this changed in Q1 of this year as the miners' hashprice, or the USD price per tera-hash per second per day (TH/s/d), rose 31% thanks to Bitcoin's price recovery toward $30,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) narrowed volatility on April 30 as the weekly and monthly candle closes loomed.

Trader sees BTC price upside capped at $32,500

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it loitered just above $29,000 throughout the weekend.

After unsettled price action earlier in the week, Bitcoin returned to sideways trading, with markets witnessing an eerie calm despite the potential for volatility thanks to lower weekend liquidity.

As such, traders were hopeful that no unwelcome surprises would greet the candle closes.

“Nothing has changed,” popular trader Elizy summarized in part of a recent Twitter analysis of the three-day chart.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed choppy at the April 28 Wall Street open, while United States macro data conformed to expectations.

PCE offers “nothing to shock”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD fluctuating around the $29,000 mark on Bitstamp.

U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data, tipped as the macro event of the week, failed to deliver a performance catalyst as numbers broadly conformed to what markets had already priced in.

“The trend is our friend, however core sticky for now - hovering at 4.6% since December,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro responded, adding in Twitter comments that the latest numbers were “overall nothing to shock the market.”

U.S. equities thus showed little movement at the open, while for Bitcoin, Binance order book data showed modest bid liquidity moving toward spot price, compressing potential volatility.

On April 26, House Republicans scarcely passed their bill to increase the U.S. debt ceiling. This led to analysts already weighing its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin (BTC), ranging from extremely bearish to overly bullish.

Ultimately, U.S. dollar liquidity is the key to both of these opposing viewpoint.

"Deflationary recession" to produce 2020-like BTC rally?

Some analysts, including Jesse Meyers, the COO of investment firm Onramp, believe raising the debt ceiling would prompt the Federal Reserve to print more money, thus boosting capital inflows into "risky" assets like Bitcoin.

The debt ceiling represents the maximum amount of money the U.S. government can borrow to pay its bills.

Related: Fed balance sheet adds $393B in two weeks — Will this send Bitcoin price to $40K?

Bitcoin (BTC) traders may be gearing up for a sell-off as data shows tens of thousands of coins moving to exchanges.

The latest figures from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirm that global trading volume leader Binance’s BTC balance rose by over 50,000 BTC ($1.5 billion) in the past 30 days.

Binance takes lion’s share of exchange BTC balance increase

With BTC/USD setting multimonth highs regularly since mid-March, the temptation to sell for both long-term and short-term holders has undoubtedly increased.

As Cointelegraph reported, actual selling pressure has thus far remained muted by historical standards, but on-chain data suggests this could easily change.

According to Coinglass, Binance alone now has 51,000 BTC more on its books than 30 days ago. Compared with March 10, when BTC/USD briefly challenged $20,000 support, its balance is up by almost 100,000 BTC, separate data from analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms.

The Ether price has held above $1,820 for the past three weeks, despite facing a 13.7% correction between April 18-21. Still, analyzing a broader time frame provides a more constructive view, as Ether (ETH) has gained 20.8% in three months while the S&P 500 stock market index has stood flat. However, according to ETH options and futures metrics, the gains have not been enough to make professional investors bullish.

Worsening macroeconomic conditions have driven cryptocurrencies’ positive momentum in 2023, including the ongoing banking crisis. According to Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, if the government refuses to bail out First Republic Bank, it could set off a dangerous chain reaction of insolvencies.

Recession risks increased after the United States economy grew at a modest 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, well below the 2% expected. Meanwhile, inflation continues to hurt the economy, as the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4.2% in the first quarter.

Driving the bearishness from whales and market makers is the diminishing total value locked (TVL) and average transaction fees above $4 since February on the Ethereum network. According to DefiLlama data, Ethereum decentralized applications reached 15.3 million ETH in TVL on April 24. That compares with 22.0 million ETH six months prior, a 30% decline.

Ether’s inability to break above $2,000 could also reflect traders anticipating the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again on May 3. Higher interest rates make fixed-income investments more attractive, while businesses and families face additional costs to refinance their debts, creating a bearish environment for risk assets, including ETH.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to $29,000 at the April 27 Wall Street open as United States GDP growth missed expectations.

U.S. GDP figures reveal surprise slowdown

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD once again stagnant after flash volatility the day prior.

The largest cryptocurrency had liquidated over $300 million in long and short positions after a snap correction over claims that Mt. Gox and U.S. government bitcoins had left their wallets.

A subsequent rebound rescued some of the losses, but $30,000 remained out of reach as macro data failed to offer a suitable catalyst.

This came in the form of GDP growth, which at 1.1% fell far short of predictions.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls might be disappointed after the $31,000 resistance proved stronger than expected on April 14. However, looking at a broader time frame, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset in 2023, gaining over 74% year-to-date at $29,000.

Positioning for weaker dollar, debt ceiling

It is worth noting that gold is merely 4% behind its all-time high, likely indicating a weaker U.S. dollar as investors increase the odds of recession and further fiscal turmoil for the world’s biggest economy.

Behind the bullish price momentum for Bitcoin are the weakness in the U.S. financial system, namely the $100 billion in quarterly net withdrawals at First Republic Bank and the legislative effort to approve an increase to the urgent $31.6 billion national debt ceiling.

For Bitcoin investors, a financial crisis is a net positive as it forces the U.S. Federal Reserve to expand its emergency funding programs and take out additional unprofitable long-term debt from the system.

Cryptocurrency traders are uncomfortable with the regulatory environment, and the April 25 statement from the New York Federal Reserve further added to the uncertainty. The guidelines disclosed could potentially hinder the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin issuer Circle’s access to the Fed’s securities reverse-repurchase program, the safest vehicle to get yield on deposits.