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Bitcoin (BTC) returned to a familiar range on April 27 as panic over alleged Mt. Gox and United States government transactions faded.

"Rough" price action keeps Bitcoin traders cautious

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD traded near $29,000 on Bitstamp, up nearly $2,000 from the prior day’s low.

Snap volatility had kicked in following the Wall Street open as bulls’ trip to $30,000 was rudely interrupted by fears that BTC from wallets controlled by the U.S. government and entities related to defunct exchange Mt. Gox were on the move.

As Cointelegraph reported, the claims turned out to be false, but not before wiping a large slice of open interest from derivatives markets and sending BTC/USD down 7%.

A subsequent recovery returned the pair to $29,500 before consolidation kicked in.

Bitcoin (BTC) tagged $30,000 into the April 26 Wall Street open as bulls gained further momentum from United States banking woes.

Hayes: "Uncertainty" driving BTC price, gold

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed as it briefly reclaimed the psychological line in the sand, capping 11% gains versus its local lows from April 24.

The pair continued to respond positively to the rapidly-evolving next chapter of the U.S. banking crisis. This centered around First Republic Bank, which revealed a $100 billion reduction in deposits this week.

The U.S. government was reportedly uninterested in intervening on the day, according to a source cited by CNBC, as the bank’s stock, FRC, opened down another 22% before being halted for volatility. Weekly stock price losses thus totaled over 50%.

Responding, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, smelled blood.

Bitcoin (BTC) price broke above $29,800 on April 26, totaling 9.6% gains in 24 hours, reaching as high as $30,024 on Bitstamp. Some commentators argue that the 50% drop in First Republic Bank (FRB) shares on April 25 has been the catalyst for Bitcoin’s rally.

Bitcoin gains from banking crisis 

Despite the positive shift, its price remains 22.5% down in twelve months, which explains why bulls are far from optimistic. 

The FRB debacle comes after the bank’s earnings report, which showed that clients’ deposits shrank by 40.8% during the quarter as customers pulled out their money. Notably, the bank received a $30 billion cash injection in March, but the quarterly outflows topped $100 billion.

On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that it would hike interest rates above 5%. By increasing the cost of capital, the central bank might succeed in taming inflation, but the unintended consequence is a weaker economy and a bearish market structure for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Some analysts pin the $31,000 resistance rejection to the harsh cryptocurrency regulatory environment, especially in the U.S.— which became more evident after Coinbase filed a court action to force the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to clarify industries’ rules.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $29,000 on April 26 after overnight gains marked a solid rebound.

Bitcoin short squeeze risk on the rise

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD advancing swiftly during Asia trading to deliver 6.5% upside versus its local lows.

The pair had begun its comeback after the April 25 Wall Street open amid fresh concerns over United States bank stability.

These came as First Republic Bank reported a dramatic fall in deposits, its share price tanking 50% on the day.

A familiar catalyst for crypto markets, the banking crisis reminded investors that it had gone nowhere since March, with crypto sources already predicting its next chapter.

Bitcoin (BTC) is done with its bear market, but the coming months may see a return to $20,000.

That is the outlook for Philip Swift, a veteran Bitcoin market analyst who co-founded trading suite DecenTrader and data resource Look Into Bitcoin.

In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, Swift takes a look at what the near to long-term future holds for BTC price action.

After predicting the end of the bear market at the end of 2022, Swift is sticking by his appraisal of underlying price strength, while staying cautious on the odds of a deeper correction than last week’s 10% dip.

Bulls face many obstacles on the road to new all-time highs, he said, with government policy particularly troubling when it comes to potential price suppression.

Last week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record high in Argentine peso (ARS) terms following persistent inflation in Argentina.

Argentina’s inflation pushes BTC’s price to all-time high

On April 18, the BTC-to-ARS exchange rate crossed over 6.59 million ARS, according to aggregated price data tracked by Google Finance.

Since the peak, the rate has corrected to around 6 million ARS, down 9%, but still up more than 100% year-to-date (YTD).

Bitcoin’s growth in the Argentine markets coincides with the continuous ARS devaluation. For instance, traders were paying as low as 460 ARS to buy $1 from the black market on April 24 — more than double the official spot rate that pays 220 ARS for the dollar. 

FMyA, a United States-based consultancy firm, noted that the Argentine central bank’s reserves have dropped by half to an estimated $1.3 billion since 2019.

Bitcoin (BTC) is keeping everyone on their toes when it comes to price trajectory — where will it go next?

BTC price down 10% after bad week 

After a week in which BTC/USD fell by 10%, sentiment is getting a reset and traders are eyeing key support levels closer to $25,000.

At the same time, consensus is far from unanimous over market health — some believe that the next phase of upside is around the corner.

As macro markets gear up for a new period of crucial data and moves from the United States Federal Reserve, volatility catalysts are waiting in the wings, with Bitcoin potentially not staying calm for long.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the upcoming scenarios that could cause BTC/USD to quit its short-term sideways trading pattern.

The Ether price has struggled to sustain $1,850 support since April 21, the same level it held before the rally toward $2,100 initiated on April 13. Investors have reason to question whether there are buyers, considering the 13.5% price correction in six days and the $548 million in leveraged futures longs liquidated between April 19 and April 21.

First, the regulatory environment seems to have gotten stricter for centralized exchanges. Dubai-based Bybit, for instance, announced that all users must complete Know Your Customer (KYC) identity verification by May 8 for order execution and withdrawals. Until May 8, non-KYC users have a monthly withdrawal limit of 100,000 Tether (USDT).

United States-based crypto exchange Gemini announced on April 21 the upcoming launch of a derivatives platform outside the country. The uncertain regulatory environment forced the company to seek alternative locales, though only clients from selected regions can access the new service. The list excludes the U.S., Canada and most European countries, except Switzerland.

Ethereum network is navigating in troubled waters

Given its lower use in decentralized applications (DApps), the Ethereum network is probably experiencing its own problems. For starters, total deposits on Ethereum’s smart contracts in Ether (ETH) terms plunged to their lowest levels since August 2020. Such an analysis already excludes the effects of native Ethereum staking, which recently started to allow withdrawals.

According to DefiLlama data, Ethereum DApps reached 15.3 million ETH in total value locked (TVL) on April 24. That compares with 22.0 million ETH six months prior, a 30% decline. As a comparison, TVL on BNB Smart Chain in BNB (BNB) terms declined by 20%, and the Polygon network’s MATIC (MATIC) deposits decreased by 11%.

The price of Ethereum's Ether (ETH) token has retreated from its recovery trend versus Bitcoin (BTC) while making a series of lower highs in April.

ETH price risks more losses vs. Bitcoin

As of April 24, the ETH/BTC pair was down about 5.5% from its local high of 0.0709 BTC six days ago. The same period witnessed Ether declining nearly 15% and Bitcoin dropping 11.25% in U.S. dollar terms.

For now, ETH holds above its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near 0.0672 BTC. But if the March 2023 fractal is any indication, Ethereum's price could drop sharply below the support wave.

The ETH/BTC pair saw a pullback trend in March after testing the 200-day EMA (the blue wave), breaking below its 50-day EMA in the process.

If the fractal plays out similarly in April, the downside target is 0.0627 BTC by the month's end, about 7% lower than the current levels, and a level that served as major support in March and April.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward range lows at the April 24 Wall Street open, with investors at odds over when to take profit.

BTC price targets extend to $25,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD falling below $27,300 on Bitstamp.

The pair had seen an initial positive reaction to the start of trading on Wall Street, this short-lived as a trip to $27,045 marked new monthly lows.

Traders, already keen to see further downside to take waiting bid liquidity, were unperturbed.

“Patiently waiting for the sweep,” popular trader Johnny summarized.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in a precarious position after experiencing its most extensive losses since November.

In a major comedown from ten-month highs, BTC/USD lost around 10% before the weekly candle finally closed.

At around $27,600, the culmination of a grim few days for long traders means that BTC/USD is now caught battling for last month’s support.

Market participants are in two minds as to how the situation might play out — some are betting on deeper downside, while others remain confident of retesting those multi-month highs.

Catalysts may come in the form of United States macroeconomic data releases later in the week, while markets are also gearing up for the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on target to finish the week with a sharp fall of around 9%. This suggests that some traders may be booking profits in fear of a resumption of the downtrend. Analysts expect Bitcoin to reach the $26,600–$25,000 zone, where buying interest may pick up.

When an asset emerges from a bear market, it tries to form higher lows on the way up. These levels act as strong supports during subsequent corrections. The current pullback could end up forming a higher floor for Bitcoin, which may act as a launch pad for the next rally.

If long-term investors believe that a bottom has been made, then panicking and selling on every corrective phase is not a good strategy. Rather, every dip could be an opportunity to build a portfolio.

The correction in Bitcoin has pulled several altcoins lower. Only a handful of major cryptocurrencies are holding out and looking strong on the charts. Let’s study the charts of five cryptocurrencies that may outperform on the way up.

Bitcoin price analysis

Buyers are trying to arrest Bitcoin’s correction at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($26,983), but the shallow bounce suggests that the bears are not willing to give up.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to snatch back lost ground on April 23 as ten-day lows remained in place.

$26,600 becomes popular BTC price target

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it rose to circle $27,700 at the time of writing.

Up around 2.5% from the lows set the day prior, the pair remained on traders’ radar as a potential short opportunity into the weekly close.

“$26,600 is my target in my short position right now, and being the weekend it may take a bit longer to get there,” Crypto Tony confirmed to Twitter followers on the day.

“It is the most logical target and we also have bids popped up down there too now, so i am expecting a reaction once tested.”

Bitcoin (BTC) barely held $27,000 on April 22 as another round of losses left bulls with little firepower.

Giant RSI support retest greets Bitcoin bulls

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD just preserving the $27,000 mark on the day after the Wall Street trading week ended on a sour note.

In contrast to United States equities, which managed to seal modest gains on the day, Bitcoin continued to suffer as analysts warned of a return to nearer $25,000.

With that, BTC/USD was down 10% for the week and 4% in April overall, according to data from monitoring resource Coinglass, amid a dramatic turnaround in fortunes versus much of Q1.

For popular trader Credible Crypto, however, there was still every reason to hope that the long-term uptrend remained intact.

Dogecoin suffered a big blow on April 20, popularly known as “Dogeday” thanks to the failed test launch of SpaceX’s Starship rocket and downturn in the broader crypto market. 

The SpaceX rocket, which featured the Dogecoin mascot on its side, disintegrated four minutes after its launch. Still, the company’s employees including Elon Musk cheered the failure as they expressed optimism for another test in coming months.

The move comes within a fortnight of Musk’s recent stunt when he momentarily changed Twitter’s logo to the Dogecoin mascot.

The launch had built considerable excitement within the Dogecoin community. DogeDesigner, a graphic designer in the Dogecoin community, tweeted about the rocket launch with eagerness.

However, Dogeday appears to have turned into a sell-the-news event as the DOGE/USD pair lost 11.88% of the day’s high of $0.093 to $0.083.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett sees no value in Bitcoin (BTC), infamously calling it “rat poison squared.” But data shows that adding Bitcoin to a so-called “rat poison portfolio,” an equally weighted portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, JPMorgan and BlackRock stocks, would have produced much better returns for The Oracle of Omaha.

“Rat poison portfolio” with Bitcoin does better 

Since 2014, allocating only 2.5% Bitcoin yearly to the rat poison portfolio increases returns by nearly 20% with reduced risks, according to independent market analyst Alpha Zeta. For now, the portfolio’s returns stand around 16%.

Despite Bitcoin’s notorious price volatility, Alpha Zeta noted that BTC’s correlation with the stocks of Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, JP Morgan and BlackRock is very low.

For instance, during the 2021–2023 bear market, allocating Bitcoin to the rat poison portfolio could have negated losses by around 10%.

In other words, BTC typically negates losses imposed by downside movements in the said stocks. Therefore, allocating a small portion of Bitcoin to the rat poison portfolio has proven to be a reasonable hedging strategy to offset potential negative returns.